Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon
We're All Socialists Now
Rastamouse:
What you're dancing around is the "Too Big To Fail" conundrum. The more general question is whether taxpayers (that would be you and I) should be forced to bail out bankers - or anybody else - when they make "unwise" financial decisions, or whether it is better to let them go ahead and fail? (Economists and deep thinkers call this the "moral hazard" problem.) Clearly, in the most recent flirtation with economic calamity, the political class decided it was preferable to bail the bankers out. (Or as former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke declared: "I do not intend to preside over Great Depression 2!")
This is my (very subjective) opinion, but I think what the Government did (in bailing out the banks) exposed the hypocrisy of folks like Alan Greenspan. Shortly before the 2008 collapse, Mr. Greenspan had written a book in which he extolled the virtues of our free enterprise system and argued for limited Government interference in the private sector. (I can only guess that by "limited" Government interference, Mr. Greenspan did not mean that certain "exceptions" would be allowed - like bailing out all his rich banker buddies ...) It was very interesting when Chairman Henry Waxman's House Financial Services Committee invited Mr. Greenspan to testify in early 2009. (I was watching the hearing live on C-SPAN.) Mr. Waxman's first question to Mr. Greenspan was simple and direct (paraphrasing slightly): "Mr. Greenspan, were you wrong?"
The "Maestro" froze for a good 20 seconds - mentally stumbling for an answer - as he obviously did not want to answer "Yes" to Congressman Waxman's question. Finally Mr. Greenspan muttered (again paraphrasing) "I just could not believe people would make decisions contrary to their best [financial] self interest." So Mr. Greenspan was saying, in effect, that the financial crisis happened not because of any failing on his part but because of sheer stupidity on the part of his fellow bankers.
So what we have now is a system where profits are privatized and losses (when they occur) become a "public" problem. Now that we're sliding down that slippery slope, it will only get worse. It's just a matter of time until taxpayers are going to get shafted with the bill for the millions of students who default on their student loans. It will be hard for Congress to say "No" to students (and their parents) after they've said "Yes" to the bankers.
Face it: We're all socialists now.
Allowing too big to fail is more than unwise. Much more than unwise. It’s an incentive to take unwarranted risk. And its not bailing out the bankers. Its their shareholders (you and I) and under certain circumstances, the general financial system as was the case in 2008.
Re: greenspan – of all the players, I’m not sure why you’re picking on him. The most extraordinary actor was Hank Paulson – not only a lifetime devotee of efficient theory of markets, but a career banker and former CEO of Goldman Sachs. The man who pulled the actual trigger on government intervention had not only lived the theory, but the practice of government non-interventionism.
And when you talk about student debt you have the stakeholders wrong, and there are some necessary clarifications. First, why do you think they will default? The comparison (bank leverage) was brought on by (among other things) an incentives problem (as you correctly point out, moral hazard). Second, student debt Ts&Cs are different from most other debt, in that bankruptcy does not absolve the debtors of their obligation to pay. They can restructure, but have little leverage. This is fundamentally different from any other kind of debt I am aware of. Third, if students do default en mass, it will be their creditors (again, mostly us via mutal funds and pensions) who will be stuck holding the bill. Not the students. Fourth, as a matter of fact, the congress voted against the measures that were undertaken by the fed and the treasury, which was the wrong thing to do. The entire financial system was buckling under the weight of frozen credit markets. If the government had not eventually coalesced we would still be living in the stone age.
Finally, based on factors described above, as well as a lack of data (at least in your statement above) IF student debt goes belly up en mass, I don’t have any reason to believe congress will act in the same way they did for the financial crisis of 08. For reasons mentioned above, the situation was completely different. Moreover, congress answers to a small number of rich white men who prop up their campains, not voters. That is evident from election results, campaign contributions, and voter approval raitings of congress.