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06-19-2011 , 12:40 AM
#1026
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FWIW nothing that Max Raker has said is incorrect here. Paul is still a million to one longshot to win.
06-19-2011 , 12:44 AM
#1027
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cres
Yet only a small fraction of the cash raised is used for charitable purposes. By the time the professional fundraisers take their cut, there isn't much left to do much good.
this is different from government how?

Spoiler:
its different in that it still more efficient,the incentives are less wacked, and negative externalities are less.
06-19-2011 , 01:58 AM
#1028
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
What odds? I think neutral odds are around 100:1 so i need better than that to bet.
What are 'neutral odds'?
06-19-2011 , 02:06 AM
#1029
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyler
What are 'neutral odds'?
Even money. My phrasing wasn't exactly clear though.
06-19-2011 , 02:20 AM
#1030
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
Lol... my phrasing was totally fine in everyday conversation. Yes he has somewhere between a 0% and 1% chance of winning, just like many other things that aren't going to happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
The medias analysis is totally correct. We know Ron Paul cannot win the nomination.... some of the other candidates can so their performance relative to each other is perhaps the only possible useful data you can get from that poll, if even that.
thanks for trolling!

06-19-2011 , 02:58 AM
#1031
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Paul is 33:1 to win presidency at williamhill sportsbook.
06-19-2011 , 03:33 AM
#1032
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion5
Paul is 33:1 to win presidency at williamhill sportsbook.
Which, assuming they are trying to turn a profit, means they think he is more than a 33:1 dog.

/captainobvious
06-19-2011 , 03:49 AM
#1033
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xaston
Which, assuming they are trying to turn a profit, means they think he is more than a 33:1 dog.

/captainobvious
O RLY?
06-19-2011 , 11:10 AM
#1034
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xaston
Which, assuming they are trying to turn a profit, means they think he is more than a 33:1 dog.

/captainobvious
06-19-2011 , 12:56 PM
#1035
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xaston
Which, assuming they are trying to turn a profit, means they think he is more than a 33:1 dog.

/captainobvious
nice,
06-19-2011 , 01:17 PM
#1036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion5
Paul is 33:1 to win presidency at williamhill sportsbook.
It's more like 1000:1
06-19-2011 , 03:41 PM
#1037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by General Tsao
max i'll take those odds how much money you putting on it?
Or we can do it even money with escrow and I pick a candidate as well (Bachman, Palin, Pawlentey etc) and we push if neither get the nomination. Much better than having to escrow 10k to win 100 when it is better just to put it in a bank.
06-19-2011 , 04:08 PM
#1038
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i said you don't have to escrow.

ftr, i pm'd him (unless i imagined it, which tbh i imagine sending messages way more than i'd like to admit) for odds talk but he's not responding
06-19-2011 , 08:19 PM
#1039
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
Or we can do it even money with escrow and I pick a candidate as well (Bachman, Palin, Pawlentey etc) and we push if neither get the nomination. Much better than having to escrow 10k to win 100 when it is better just to put it in a bank.
That's not what you originally said though? You said he was 100:1 or something...
06-19-2011 , 08:28 PM
#1040
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wraths Unanimous
That's not what you originally said though? You said he was 100:1 or something...
I do think he is around 100:1.
06-19-2011 , 10:05 PM
#1041
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Then accept the bet?
06-19-2011 , 10:18 PM
#1042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wraths Unanimous
Then accept the bet?
Lol wat?

I think the coin flip at the next super bowl is even money.... but I am not going to escrow 10k for 6 months just to get 1:1 on heads.
06-19-2011 , 11:12 PM
#1043
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So bet him at...75:1?
06-20-2011 , 12:17 AM
#1044
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
Lol wat?

I think the coin flip at the next super bowl is even money.... but I am not going to escrow 10k for 6 months just to get 1:1 on heads.
Are you being purposefully obnoxious? He said he didn't care if you escrow.
06-20-2011 , 12:24 AM
#1045
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wraths Unanimous
Are you being purposefully obnoxious? He said he didn't care if you escrow.
Sigh...you have no idea what you are talking about. We are negotiating via PM. He wants some form of escrow... he would be insane not to.

(Even ignoring the fact that you are not privy to the PM negotiations your post is still bad given this is a poker forum. There is no incentive to take neutral EV bets.)
06-20-2011 , 12:28 AM
#1046
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this thread is painful to read sometimes.
06-20-2011 , 12:06 PM
#1048
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Just bet even money on his primary vote %
06-20-2011 , 12:53 PM
#1049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
Sigh...you have no idea what you are talking about. We are negotiating via PM. He wants some form of escrow... he would be insane not to.

(Even ignoring the fact that you are not privy to the PM negotiations your post is still bad given this is a poker forum. There is no incentive to take neutral EV bets.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by General Tsao
i said you don't have to escrow.

ftr, i pm'd him (unless i imagined it, which tbh i imagine sending messages way more than i'd like to admit) for odds talk but he's not responding
Okay, I'll leave it alone after giving one big LOL @ you.
06-20-2011 , 12:55 PM
#1050
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nah you should leave it alone. i changed my mind when i realized i'd be risking $100 (which I'd obviously definitely pay) to win $10k at 100:1 which I have no idea if max raker would pay. basically he'd be free rolling.

we'll figure it out in PM.
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