Ron Paul 2012 Containment Thread

[prana]

The fact that these people cheer at any mention of bombing Iran while rp is preaching about how they aren't a threat should be a clue

[MikeGotNuts]

Originally Posted by tomdemaine

The burden of proof rests on those making the claims of fraud surely.

Hence 200 page PDF titled "Significant Evidence of Algorithmic Vote Flipping in the 2012 GOP primary"?

Look, I don't know if there was voters fraud or not, and I'm not saying "LOL DISPROVE THIS THEORY OR ALL YOUR STRAW POLLS MEAN NOTHING!". However, to me, on the surface, the evidence provided seems damning - that's why I think it's worth discussing. If you don't care enough to educate yourself on the claim of fraud, that's fine, but I think it's pretty retarded to come in uneducated about the claim and think you can discredit the idea with the logic that "the straw polls numbers make sense because I know Ron Paul is unpopular because I've seen the straw polls". See what I'm saying?

[DVaut1]

Originally Posted by MikeGotNuts

Quick summary on the logic of posters so far:

Ron Paul is not that popular. I know this because of the results of the straw polls... Straw polls are under contention for being fraudulent. I haven't looked into it at all but LOL silly Ronulans, Ron Paul just isn't that popular! Don't you see that for your argument to be at all reasonable you need to: a) have other points of data besides straw polls that show Ron Paul is not that popular and/or
b) show why claims of voters fraud hold no weight.

So straw polls are nonbinding votes carried out in person. I think you're actually being dismissive of just normal public opinion polls carried out by private companies who pride themselves and stake their reputation in the marketplace on conducting scientific public opinion polls using industry standard methods like random sampling, split-sampling the questions, field testing questions and preference tests for non-bias, accounting for response bias by conducting the poll via telephone (including calling of mobile numbers) and using automated machines to collect the responses.

These companies also deal heavily in the private, non-political market to conduct market research but their results in the political world are judged by private actors to make purchase decisions. So we can have some confidence they're using the best available methods and practices to ensure an accurate result so that they can be a reputable and profitable opinion research outfit to market actors who rely on reliable research to make impactful business decisions.

Those polls, conducting in the private market by private market actors, provide reams of significant data over two Presidential runs separated by four years that in fact, Ron Paul is not popular.

Now something like 75 separate election results, again over two different Presidential election cycles, also provide significant data that in fact, not many people like Ron Paul.

I suppose there exists the potential both these private polling companies and vote counters in many states and literally thousands of local jurisdictions are all in cahoots to understate and undercount Ron Paul's true vote totals and levels of support, a conspiracy that would touch on no less than thousands or tens of thousands of people. But I think it more likely Ron Paul just isn't popular bro.

[MikeGotNuts]

Originally Posted by prana

The fact that these people cheer at any mention of bombing Iran while rp is preaching about how they aren't a threat should be a clue

[x]takes the cheering of crowds very seriously.

BTW listen for the next time Ron Paul says "end these needless wars" or something to that effect - that gets a pretty huge cheer every time as well. Head asplode?

[74Offsuit]

He's a mad old coot who panders to odious neoconfederate racists and conspiritards. He never had a chance and now he's lost.

Get over it.

[prana]

Originally Posted by MikeGotNuts

[x]takes the cheering of crowds very seriously.

BTW listen for the next time Ron Paul says "end these needless wars" or something to that effect - that gets a pretty huge cheer every time as well. Head asplode?

No, because RP fans notoriously fill up these events. The bigger point here that you failed to grasp is that a lot of his policies are directly opposite of the Republican base.

[MikeGotNuts]

Originally Posted by DVaut1

So straw polls are nonbinding votes carried out in person. I think you're actually being dismissive of just normal public opinion polls carried out by private companies who pride themselves and stake their reputation in the marketplace on conducting scientific public opinion polls using industry standard methods like random sampling, split-sampling the questions, field testing questions and preference tests for non-bias, accounting for response bias by conducting the poll via telephone (including calling of mobile numbers) and using automated machines to collect the responses.

These companies also deal heavily in the private, non-political market to conduct market research but their results in the political world are judged by private actors to make purchase decisions. So we can have some confidence they're using the best available methods and practices to ensure an accurate result so that they can be a reputable and profitable opinion research outfit to market actors who rely on reliable research to make impactful business decisions.

Those polls, conducting in the private market by private market actors, provide reams of significant data over two Presidential runs separated by four years that in fact, Ron Paul is not popular.

Now something like 75 separate election results, again over two different Presidential election cycles, also provide significant data that in fact, not many people like Ron Paul.

I suppose there exists the potential both these private polling companies and vote counters in many states and literally thousands of local jurisdictions are all in cahoots to understate and undercount Ron Paul's true vote totals and levels of support, a conspiracy that would touch on no less than thousands or tens of thousands of people. But I think it more likely Ron Paul just isn't popular bro.

Forgive my skepticism when I say these unbiased and meaningful political polls sound far too awesome to be real. Mind linking me?

Also, it's interesting that you bring up the last election cycle. Four years ago it would be pretty hard to argue that Ron Paul was a front runner. A case could be made that 4 years ago is a good example of why Ron Paul isn't that popular today, but I think there's a provable increase in popularity in those 4 years that puts into question how strong a correlation there is between the popularity of Ron Paul then and now.

[MikeGotNuts]

Originally Posted by 74Offsuit

He's a mad old coot who panders to odious neoconfederate racists and conspiritards. He never had a chance and now he's lost.

Get over it.

I'd argue that Ron Paul has done the least pandering of any congressman in recent history.

Actually I wouldn't because I don't know about every congressman, but still, that dude don't pander.

[Brons]

What about this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-1452.html

[Max Raker]

Originally Posted by AIRJAVI

I just don't get how he draws the biggest crowds but its not showing up in the polls. There's no way Frothy and Mittens can come close to draw crowds this size imo. I was at the rally yesterday and never felt more inspired at the University of Illinois.

What exactly is your opinion based on there? But even just granting your assertion, why is it so hard to believe that different candidates might have widely different numbers for the ratio of people who show up to rallys vs primary votes? Especially since a widespread and significant suppression of paul support in the primaries would require fraud from every single independent polling operation.

[Brons]

Originally Posted by MikeGotNuts

I'd argue that Ron Paul has done the least pandering of any congressman in recent history.

Actually I wouldn't because I don't know about every congressman, but still, that dude don't pander.

I suggest you start here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...tters-1141541/

[tomdemaine]

Mike,

In your opinion why have private companies in a free market with strong competition failed to provide an accurate polling service? What if anythIng should be done about this market failure?

[jsnipes28]

Originally Posted by MikeGotNuts

Quick summary on the logic of posters so far:

Ron Paul is not that popular. I know this because of the results of the straw polls... Straw polls are under contention for being fraudulent. I haven't looked into it at all but LOL silly Ronulans, Ron Paul just isn't that popular! Don't you see that for your argument to be at all reasonable you need to: a) have other points of data besides straw polls that show Ron Paul is not that popular and/or
b) show why claims of voters fraud hold no weight.

And here's a summary of your logic:
Ron Paul is the bestest, but he didn't win (brief interlude to allow for some crying). Ergo, there must have been massive voter fraud!

[jsnipes28]

Originally Posted by MikeGotNuts

Hence 200 page PDF titled "Significant Evidence of Algorithmic Vote Flipping in the 2012 GOP primary"?

Look, I don't know if there was voters fraud or not, and I'm not saying "LOL DISPROVE THIS THEORY OR ALL YOUR STRAW POLLS MEAN NOTHING!". However, to me, on the surface, the evidence provided seems damning - that's why I think it's worth discussing. If you don't care enough to educate yourself on the claim of fraud, that's fine, but I think it's pretty retarded to come in uneducated about the claim and think you can discredit the idea with the logic that "the straw polls numbers make sense because I know Ron Paul is unpopular because I've seen the straw polls". See what I'm saying?

There's only so much 'uneducation' to go around, unfortunately.

[DVaut1]

Originally Posted by MikeGotNuts

Forgive my skepticism when I say these unbiased and meaningful political polls sound far too awesome to be real. Mind linking me?

www.surveyusa.com
www.gallup.com
www.rasmussen.com
www.selzerco.com
www.field.com/fieldpollonline/
www.ciruli.com/
http://pewresearch.org/
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/
http://www.mason-dixon.com/Mason-Dixon/HOME.html
http://www.opinionresearch.com/
http://www.rtstrategies.com/
http://rpinc.com/services/survey/marketresearch.php

All of the above do public opinion polling + private market research. There are countless others. Pew might be just public opinion only but I think they sell their services to private companies IIRC.