Originally Posted by rjoefish
'Could have cost him votes' and 'maximized his chances to win' in the same sentence could be the dumbest thing ever said.
Imagine two simplified probability distributions:
1) McCain wins 48% of the vote 90% of the time and 51% of the vote 10% of the time.
2) McCain wins 45% of the vote 85% of the time and 51% of the vote 15% of the time.
Which has the higher expected number of votes? Which has the higher expected probability of winning?