**** Official Adanthar Tries To Crush The Market Thread ****

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by STA654

no iowa betting for you!

intrade sucks so very very much imo

[Copernicus]

Originally Posted by adanthar

intrade sucks so very very much imo

thevye probably never seen a deposit that large and have a battery of lawyers trying to figure out if they have to report $10,000 transactions. It may have gone through if you made it 9999.

[STA654]

Wow as of now McCain is the frontrunner for the nomination on intrade.

quite a comeback.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#

[DVaut1]

Originally Posted by STA654

Wow as of now McCain is the frontrunner for the nomination on intrade.

quite a comeback.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#

Looks like he might win NH, which could seriously hurt Romney going forward, leaving it a McCain/Huckabee/Giuliani race going forward. McCain might be a nice alternative for conservative voters who find Giuliani a little too liberal and Huckabee a little too religious/liberal. McCain stands to benefit the most if Romney's campaign goes into the tank.

There was a thread on 2p2 a couple of months asking which candidate had the best value (at the time McCain's campaign was wallowing in irrelevancy), and I think most everyone agreed it was McCain.

[adanthar]

siiigh, yeah, I was gonna short Paul/Huck/Romney through NH but ten days later most of the value is gone (for the latter two anyway, heh).

I mean, a bunch of my lines are still good, but I probably missed out on a couple of grand or so just on those three positions in the last week. so lame.

[timotheeeee]

Originally Posted by adanthar

Inspired by the market failure thread, in addition to bets involving money, I'd like to propose a number of prop bets for custom titles/avatars. We'll have to figure out what the terms are, but I want this to involve something market-related, like (for example) the amount of $ the Paul campaign spent per vote cast or the amount of bets I make on Intrade that > the max sustainable ROI you can get picking stocks...you get the idea.

If you win, I get a custom title of your choice for some amount of time. If I win, ditto. Anyone?

I've always wanted a custom title but have no idea on how to get one/who to ask/etc. Let's dispense with the "prop bet" pageantry and let you pick one for me, since you apparently know how to get one and I don't. I don't care what it is. Embarrass me, if you want.

Hey, that's a good one, right? "Embarrass me, if you want." My law professors do it to me all the time, anyway.

[ALawPoker]

Sucks that intrade is taking so long. Have you emailed them or anything for an explanation? Maybe you can even get some sort of bonus from them if you express your frustration.

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by timotheeeee

I've always wanted a custom title but have no idea on how to get one/who to ask/etc. Let's dispense with the "prop bet" pageantry and let you pick one for me, since you apparently know how to get one and I don't. I don't care what it is. Embarrass me, if you want.

Hey, that's a good one, right? "Embarrass me, if you want." My law professors do it to me all the time, anyway.

I think they have to be done by reds now (but I'm pretty sure they'll go for prop bet-inspired requests.) At least, I tried to see if I could change it and got nowhere. hmm, I thought that letting greens do it was hacked into VB recently, odd...

Originally Posted by ALawPoker

Sucks that intrade is taking so long. Have you emailed them or anything for an explanation? Maybe you can even get some sort of bonus from them if you express your frustration.

yeah, I'm gonna get on them about it, this is dumb

[NeBlis]

Originally Posted by adanthar

siiigh, yeah, I was gonna short Paul/Huck/Romney through NH but ten days later most of the value is gone (for the latter two anyway, heh).

I mean, a bunch of my lines are still good, but I probably missed out on a couple of grand or so just on those three positions in the last week. so lame.

jeebus that sux man! I'm very sorry. Even if we disagree I know you put alot of thought and work into your lines and It sux for you to have to sit this one out because of a paper shuffling SNAFU.

[STA654]

doood, u should pick up Obama Dem nomine stocks ASAP, he is easily the 65% favorite, the price right now is 45.

[Copernicus]

Originally Posted by STA654

doood, u should pick up Obama Dem nomine stocks ASAP, he is easily the 65% favorite, the price right now is 45.

45 is still too high

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by Copernicus

45 is still too high

if/when/asdfkjsdhfjkdf I actually get money on the site ajfsjfjksdkjfs, I'm riding the Obama bus from 45 to 70.

he's winning NH at this point (Hillary would have to come back in five days - not happening). Hillary will win MI because she's the only one on the ballot ldo, but with Obama's two wins that now means nothing to the media. Obama is also very well positioned to take SC on 1/19. that means either HRC takes Nevada on 1/15, or Obama will go 4 for 4 in the first four races. if he does that, it's over.

so Nevada is the critical state, and Obama will hit the 60-70 range on Intrade long before then.

[NeBlis]

given the veracity of your Iowa position I am sick for the money you did not make tonight..... all my razzing you aside.

not that I would not have rather trounced you in the predictions

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by NeBlis

given the veracity of your Iowa position I am sick for the money you did not make tonight..... all my razzing you aside.

not that I would not have rather trounced you in the predictions

I should've gotten pissed and deposited money a week earlier than freaking 12/24, sigh

[Copernicus]

Originally Posted by adanthar

if/when/asdfkjsdhfjkdf I actually get money on the site ajfsjfjksdkjfs, I'm riding the Obama bus from 45 to 70.

he's winning NH at this point (Hillary would have to come back in five days - not happening). Hillary will win MI because she's the only one on the ballot ldo, but with Obama's two wins that now means nothing to the media. Obama is also very well positioned to take SC on 1/19. that means either HRC takes Nevada on 1/15, or Obama will go 4 for 4 in the first four races. if he does that, it's over.

so Nevada is the critical state, and Obama will hit the 60-70 range on Intrade long before then.

i think youre underestimating the power of the Clinton machine, and overestimating Obamas showing in a state that aligns perfectly for him. I dont disagree that 45 will move up, I still think it overestimates his real chances.