**** Official Adanthar Tries To Crush The Market Thread ****

[adanthar]

sdtjkkljgkljdg, $ still not there today and Bloomberg running was one of the shares I was gonna go massively long on. tiiiiiilt.

Originally Posted by adanthar

The market can easily have him break 9 at any point - all it'll take is one outlying poll followed by one Paul fanatic buying a couple of thousand shares. This has a lot to do with why I have money there in the first place.

to prove my point, the shares are up from 7.1 to 8 today on no news whatsoever

[tolbiny]

Originally Posted by adanthar

sdtjkkljgkljdg, $ still not there today and Bloomberg running was one of the shares I was gonna go massively long on. tiiiiiilt. to prove my point, the shares are up from 7.1 to 8 today on no news whatsoever

There was some decent news yesterday with the Huckabee ad getting attention around 4:00 yesterday afternoon. Looks like Romney jumped 4-5 points yesterday as well. Intrade has Huck, Mitt and then other (RP) winning IA, stands that if the leader takes a hit the next two in line are going to get a bump. MItt got 5x the bump and has 5x the chance of winning IA.

If RP is overvalued in the market right now with the actual voting starting in a few days his numbers should drop as reality will show them to be overvalued. Sure there are bizarre scenarios, but we're betting a freaking custom title.

[ALawPoker]

Originally Posted by tolbiny

Intrade has Huck, Mitt and then other (RP) winning IA

Other for President!!!

[Moneyline]

Interesting thread...

My only comment on this is that while I expect adanthar to win his early bets fading Ron Paul, I don't think it's a good idea to blindly fade Paul in every primary. I think it is very likely that Paul is willing to stick it out to the end so that his ideas will get the most attention possible. As other candidates drop out, Paul could campaign hard in a state the leading candidate(s) ignore and pull down a substantial amount of the vote. This is what Kucinich did in '04 and he almost won in Hawaii because of it. I don't expect Paul to actually win any primaries, but considering his large amount of campaign money he could do what Kucinich did in Hawaii in a number of states.

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by Moneyline

Interesting thread...

My only comment on this is that while I expect adanthar to win his early bets fading Ron Paul, I don't think it's a good idea to blindly fade Paul in every primary.

I actually agree with this to a point. I mean, there's a GOP caucus in Wyoming that the media's totally ignoring, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was second or something due solely to the fact that there are probably going to be less than 10K voters in the entire state. So I won't be fading him in *every* state, just until everyone else concedes.

BTW, another pick I was gonna make that's no good anymore due to the length of time this is taking : For about two weeks, there were ~25 Hillary shares for sale between 80-90 in MI. She's the only one on the ballot there and Obama/Edwards write-in votes don't count, but apparently it took two weeks for somebody else to figure that out and buy them up. Inefficient market ftw.

anyway, hopefully, tomorrow's the day and I have about a dozen trades planned, which I'll start posting after I make them.

[Seether]

Adanthar, your line on Iowa vs paul is 11% correct?

[adanthar]

yes

[ALawPoker]

Adanthar, I'll add on $20 at 5:1 that RP will take 3rd or better in Iowa, if you'd like. You win, I send you $20. I win, you send me $100.

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by ALawPoker

Adanthar, I'll add on $20 at 5:1 that RP will take 3rd or better in Iowa, if you'd like. You win, I send you $20. I win, you send me $100.

hmm are there enough of the wavering ones to take him over McCain?

ok, booked, although I wouldn't be shocked if I lose this one

[tolbiny]

Originally Posted by adanthar

yes

I'll take the over 11 in IA for 50$

[tolbiny]

Originally Posted by tolbiny

I'll take the over 11 in IA for 50$

And I'll take 20$ @5-1 on top 3 in IA as well if your still offering. 11% is the push correct?

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by tolbiny

I'll take the over 11 in IA for 50$

12+? booked

edit: yeah, 11 push, and the other bet is booked as well

[STA654]

What trades you make so far?

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by STA654

What trades you make so far?

"3-5 business days" on intrade appears to equal "whenever the hell we feel like"

[STA654]

no iowa betting for you!