**** Official Adanthar Tries To Crush The Market Thread ****

[ALawPoker]

Originally Posted by Vecernicek

Yeah, but I think there is an actual line on "Hillary drops out in June," which I believe Tom is referring to.

Woops, my bad. Next time I'll pay attention before I post.

[toybux]

Just a heads up for folks, Clinton is trading in the 40s for South Dakota, a state that

1) it just doesn't really make sense for her to win based on the previous regional results and the current dynamics

2) she would still be campaigning in if her internals gave her any sort of a shot rather than going home to New York.

Basically, while I'd admit she does have an outside shot, it is nowhere near the 40% range its trading it. I'm already in so I thought I'd toss it out there.

[AvivaSimplex]

You are no doubt aware of the new ARG poll that has her up by 26 points, right? I mean, ARG has been the least accurate pollster out there, but that's why she's trading at 40-50. I have no position since I'm mostly tied up with the June dropouts and I have no idea how accurate this poll is.

[DVaut1]

Originally Posted by AvivaSimplex

You are no doubt aware of the new ARG poll that has her up by 26 points, right? I mean, ARG has been the least accurate pollster out there, but that's why she's trading at 40-50. I have no position since I'm mostly tied up with the June dropouts and I have no idea how accurate this poll is.

+26 though, so even if it's very very wrong (and since we're talking about ARG it probably is), Clinton may still be a good bet to win SD.

There are so many variables and ARG sucks enough that I wouldn't put a dime on it unless I had special information. Anything from Obama +20 to Clinton +25 wouldn't surprise me, which means Clinton trading at in the 40s is probably fair, but nothing I would lay a big position on. The course of the campaigns (yes Clinton went home, but her campaign may have decided winning SD gets her nothing anyway even if her internals were close, which is true), the results of SD's neighbors (which Obama pwned by were mostly caucuses), and the polling (+26 !?!?) suggest widely divergent enough results that there's no one (again, short of an insider or something) can say with much confidence what's going to happen in SD tomorrow. Obama was at 90 to win SD as late as this morning -- that would have a nice time to put a stake in Clinton. As I said, I wouldn't touch it now.

[toybux]

Originally Posted by AvivaSimplex

You are no doubt aware of the new ARG poll that has her up by 26 points, right? I mean, ARG has been the least accurate pollster out there, but that's why she's trading at 40-50. I have no position since I'm mostly tied up with the June dropouts and I have no idea how accurate this poll is.

Yeah, this is actually what made me check what it was trading at. That ARG poll is nonsense, but it drove her price right up. The big swing factor IMO is the Native American vote, which will be sizable and there really isn't a ton of previous exit polling to look at. However, I don't think that'll be enough to overcome Obama's advantages even if it does break poorly for him, and I certainly don't think she's anywhere near 40% to win. I'd guess maybe 20-25% tops.

[junior.kun]

Originally Posted by Tom1975

Does suspending=dropping out according to Intrade?

I emailed Intrade and they said that it depends on the circumstances of the suspension. If Hillary says she's suspending her campaign but will still seek the nomination at the convention then it might close at zero. If she says she's suspending her campaign but its clear that she will not seek the nomination at the convention then at would close at 100. That's a bit uncomfortably vague.

I hope Adanthar is right about Hillary not being an option for VP. I think the media is about to go into "Hillary for VP" mode, when they'll be talking on cable news about the possibility of Hillary being VP 24/7.

Hillary for democratic VP nominee stock has been going up the past week, which is rational, since it's certainly more likely that she'll be VP nominee as it becomes more likely that she won't be president. She would come with a lot of baggage if Obama chose her, I don't know if she could win him Arkansas or Florida or any of the other swings he'd have trouble with alone.

[adanthar]

Officially cashed out all my Obama shares at 94.7 and currently cashing out the other stuff to focus on VP's.

edit: obv had $0 in the SD market, but that was definitely a nice, radioactive spot for a day or two. Condolences to anyone who's busto because of it, heh.

[toybux]

I got out of my shorts early enough that I didn't lose much at all after doing a little more research. Mild loss and lesson learned. VP market should be interesting, though. We'll see how that goes.

[Rant]

Isn't the line on Clinton for VP insane? It got up to 35 for a bit yesterday I think. There's no way Obama will bring in Hillary and Bill. Way too much circus and old-school politics.

I'm kind of baffled by people, and the press, taking this seriously. What am I missing?

What do you think? Is it really possible that Obama will pick Clinton?

[mersenneary]

I agree shorting Clinton.VP is a good bet.

Adanthar, any thoughts on Republican VP? I'm inclined to short Romney and long Pawlenty, but I find handicapping the veepstakes is a lot more difficult knowing whether you're square or sharp.

[adanthar]

unfortunately I didn't have time to short HRC prior to it hitting 20 but at least I got a bunch of $ in when it did (and a bunch more somewhere else at 25-ish.)

GOP.VP: I think the trick, just like with Dems, is using linked margins to short specific horrible candidates rather than buying longs. It's just not possible to predict who it *will* be with any degree of certainty - the best you can do is to have a basket of veeps adding up to well under 100% and hope for the best. That doesn't seem worth the time for large amounts and I can't imagine it's very +EV, but shorting bad picks seems easy.

Once you're there, though, it sure looks like HRC at 20 is a lot safer of a short than Romney at the same amount (although if those markets dry up, I'd start shorting Jindal at 15.)

[junior.kun]

Originally Posted by adanthar

unfortunately I didn't have time to short HRC prior to it hitting 20 but at least I got a bunch of $ in when it did (and a bunch more somewhere else at 25-ish.)

GOP.VP: I think the trick, just like with Dems, is using linked margins to short specific horrible candidates rather than buying longs. It's just not possible to predict who it *will* be with any degree of certainty - the best you can do is to have a basket of veeps adding up to well under 100% and hope for the best. That doesn't seem worth the time for large amounts and I can't imagine it's very +EV, but shorting bad picks seems easy.

Are you planning to put in stop orders when shorting really unlikely candidates like Gore? I feel like if Gore ever hits above 40 then something has to be going down and maybe a stop order should automatically cut losses, but on the other hand, who knows if something really irrational could happen to market prices especially if someone decides to have a laugh and manipulate the market...

[adanthar]

I haven't bothered because the chance of someone buying Gore at 40 in a diabolical plan to make other people randomly lose lots of money for no apparent reason is way higher than the chance of Gore actually being named VP, especially when I'm not next to a newscast/laptop

[adanthar]

so apparently, one solitary guy is singlehandedly giving massive action on Hillary not dropping out in June in the 85 range.

the Intrade contract rule wording has been revised lately and seems pretty unambiguous right now, so let's just say I'm in for a lot

[adanthar]

update on the above: Hil sent this email out today:

I wanted you to be one of the first to know: on Saturday, I will hold an event in Washington D.C. to thank everyone who has supported my campaign. Over the course of the last 16 months, I have been privileged and touched to witness the incredible dedication and sacrifice of so many people working for our campaign. Every minute you put into helping us win, every dollar you gave to keep up the fight meant more to me than I can ever possibly tell you.

On Saturday, I will extend my congratulations to Senator Obama and my support for his candidacy. This has been a long and hard-fought campaign, but as I have always said, my differences with Senator Obama are small compared to the differences we have with Senator McCain and the Republicans.

I have said throughout the campaign that I would strongly support Senator Obama if he were the Democratic Party's nominee, and I intend to deliver on that promise.

When I decided to run for president, I knew exactly why I was getting into this race: to work hard every day for the millions of Americans who need a voice in the White House.

I made you -- and everyone who supported me -- a promise: to stand up for our shared values and to never back down. I'm going to keep that promise today, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I will be speaking on Saturday about how together we can rally the party behind Senator Obama. The stakes are too high and the task before us too important to do otherwise.

I know as I continue my lifelong work for a stronger America and a better world, I will turn to you for the support, the strength, and the commitment that you have shown me in the past 16 months. And I will always keep faith with the issues and causes that are important to you.

In the past few days, you have shown that support once again with hundreds of thousands of messages to the campaign, and again, I am touched by your thoughtfulness and kindness.

I can never possibly express my gratitude, so let me say simply, thank you.

Intrade contract rule:

Clarification: If a candidate announces they are suspending their campaign but give no indication they are dropping out of the race for the nomination then the contract will not be expired. We will consider an acknowledgement of another candidate as the nominee as an indication of defeat and that they have dropped out of the race. But if the candidate suspends their campaign and does not acknowledge the other candidate as the nominee then they are reserving the right to continue their pursuit of the nomination and we would not expire the contract.

sounds good to me. the current play:

DROPOUT.JUN08.CLINTON +1571 (risk -13445.80 to make 2264.20)

there is still massive volume 12 free points out there and I'm out of available margin so I suggest you take them all.