**** Official Adanthar Tries To Crush The Market Thread ****

[JayTee]

I'm out. ALaw should have this.

[ALawPoker]

We could both do it, if adanthar accepts 2 way action (just if we both won, one of our title choices would obviously have to wait for the other one to expire). You did get on it first though, so I have no problem with you taking it if adanthar only wants 1 bet.

[adanthar]

Cumulonimbus here gave me and somebody else 14%.

I'll take all comers on this bet, but I don't want to do any straight bets for this - it should be market related

[Cumulonimbus]

Originally Posted by adanthar

Cumulonimbus here gave me and somebody else 14%.

I'll take all comers on this bet, but I don't want to do any straight bets for this - it should be market related

hey about that, if you're still taking bets for 12% or overin NH, put me down for a thousand.

whoever asked, it was a typo/misread/confusion that led me to set it at 14%, but since I already laid the terms it was too late.

[Copernicus]

Adanthar is going to crush.

My prop bet would be that RP's % drops by at least x% going from NH to Michigan. He wont gain momentum from a better than expected showing in NH because of the loonie quotient. By the time it gets to Florida Id be shocked if he exceed 6% in any state.

[maxtower]

I would like to bet that he does better in IA than NH.

[NeBlis]

Originally Posted by Copernicus

Adanthar is going to crush.

My prop bet would be that RP's % drops by at least x% going from NH to Michigan. He wont gain momentum from a better than expected showing in NH because of the loonie quotient. By the time it gets to Florida Id be shocked if he exceed 6% in any state.

I will bet that all day what are your terms and who is gonna hold the money ?

[AlexM]

Originally Posted by Copernicus

Adanthar is going to crush.

My prop bet would be that RP's % drops by at least x% going from NH to Michigan. He wont gain momentum from a better than expected showing in NH because of the loonie quotient. By the time it gets to Florida Id be shocked if he exceed 6% in any state.

So you'll offer even odds that he won't exceed 6% in any state from Florida and beyond? Actually, since you'll be "shocked" I guess you'll offer even better odds!

[adanthar]

Originally Posted by Cumulonimbus

hey about that, if you're still taking bets for 12% or overin NH, put me down for a thousand.

I'll get back to you on that tomorrow because nobody's polled anyone all week, but I suspect if you're still willing to do this at the end of tomorrow I'll wind up taking it.

in the meantime, someone come up with a bet that would strongly suggest Intrade = inefficient, hugely beatable market if I win it plz.

[Copernicus]

Originally Posted by NeBlis

I will bet that all day what are your terms and who is gonna hold the money ?

Which part? If its the 6% after Florida obviously Im not giving you every other state for even money. If its the drop from NH to Mich. make an offer on X%

[NeBlis]

Originally Posted by Copernicus

Which part? If its the 6% after Florida obviously Im not giving you every other state for even money. If its the drop from NH to Mich. make an offer on X%

Paul will excedd 6% in all the primary he runs in... what'll you give me on that then. Or do you wanna split it up over each one?

[ALawPoker]

Originally Posted by adanthar

I'll take all comers on this bet, but I don't want to do any straight bets for this - it should be market related

Adanthar, how about this:

You get two years to shop for lines, say through the 2010 elections (I don't necessarily expect it to take that long, but I think some sort of time limit is necessary).

Best of 13. You pick any politics line that looks good to you, where the bid and ask are both equal or below 42. If the position is a winner, you win; if it's a loser, I win. (You don't have to literally buy and hold the positions if you don't want to, you can just announce them as your pick.)

Once you announce a pick it's final.

So the point is to test whether (over an extended time frame with plenty of opportunity) you're able to find bargains which are actually favorites even though the market lists them as dogs, or if you are not able to do this. Sound like a good idea?

[tomdemaine]

Originally Posted by ALawPoker

Adanthar, how about this:

You get two years to shop for lines, say through the 2010 elections (I don't necessarily expect it to take that long, but I think some sort of time limit is necessary).

Best of 13. You pick any politics line that looks good to you, where the bid and ask are both equal or below 42. If the position is a winner, you win; if it's a loser, I win. (You don't have to literally buy and hold the positions if you don't want to, you can just announce them as your pick.)

Once you announce a pick it's final.

So the point is to test whether (over an extended time frame with plenty of opportunity) you're able to find bargains which are actually favorites even though the market lists them as dogs, or if you are not able to do this. Sound like a good idea?

I like this but you should give him winners below 40 or loser above 60 IMO.

[ALawPoker]

Funny, my original thought was to give him 40, at best of 11. But I figured I'd add on a couple more points. I won't rescind the offer, but if adanthar is confident and thinks he can handle 40, I'll certainly accept those terms.

[tomdemaine]

Originally Posted by ALawPoker

Funny, my original thought was to give him 40, at best of 11. But I figured I'd add on a couple more points. I won't rescind the offer, but if adanthar is confident and thinks he can handle 40, I'll certainly accept those terms.

what I'm saying is if you want to resolve the bet quicker you should give him winners and losers, but obviously you'll want a price for that.