**** Official Adanthar Tries To Crush The Market Thread **** - Page 11 - Politics and Economics

adanthar · 01-21-2008, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by STA654

What florida bets u doing, adantharian one?

Clinton's a lock in FL w. no campaigning on either side and a 20 point lead, so, lots of that.

I'll also be camping the results for the GOP side but there's no reason to do anything there until those start coming in.

iron81 · 01-21-2008, 08:31 PM

Do you like anything on Super Tuesday? I just noticed that they opened markets for most of the Super Tuesday states, some of them haven't seen any action yet. You might try setting a sucker line and seeing if anyone bites without other action to compare it against.

For starters, someone is trying to short IL.Clinton at 80 lol. Coming as someone from Illinois, the fair value of that line is about 15.

ALawPoker · 01-21-2008, 08:36 PM

Adantharian one,

Don't forget to let us know when you make your official Florida picks, and what amounts and whatnot. Your railbirds demand accurate tracking.

Also, do you feel like putting together a brief summary of whatever longterm bets you have thus far? I believe you have some Obama and McCain nominee picks? But I don't feel like sifting through the 16 pages to find everything.

adanthar · 01-21-2008, 11:30 PM

After finding out that I can make 10-20% on whatever $ I don't have locked up during an election just going with the flow, I sold off all my long term picks.

Currently I'm down about $500 total on the elections (this includes a big bet on another forum that I won but the guy welshed on. w/e.) I have a little over 2K worth of combined Obama.SC shares/Hillary shorts there that I bought for an average of 87, but I'll be getting rid of them before election day and trading on the results again. I'm also going to make a bunch off Clinton in Florida, and that'll basically be it till Super Tuesday when (if Rudy loses FL) I think I'll just short him everywhere/trade the results one more time.

ALawPoker · 01-22-2008, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

I sold off all my long term picks.

What'd you sell them for? I thought you were going to be announcing your buys/sells as they happened in this thread. Did your change your mind and you're only gonna fill us in some of the time?

Quote:

Currently I'm down about $500 total on the elections (this includes a big bet on another forum that I won but the guy welshed on. w/e.)

This thread isn't supposed to be about the bets you made with us Paulbots or with people on other forums. It's Adanthar vs. the market. No holds barred. How are you doing on intrade?

Quote:

I have a little over 2K worth of combined Obama.SC shares/Hillary shorts there that I bought for an average of 87, but I'll be getting rid of them before election day and trading on the results again. I'm also going to make a bunch off Clinton in Florida, and that'll basically be it till Super Tuesday

Again, please just remember to keep your railbird 2+2 friends filled in on the specifics when you make these buys and sells.

STA654 · 01-25-2008, 04:10 PM

adanthar, are u gonna sell rudy in florida? he's only at 18.5% RCP avg. and 7 on intrade.

TomCollins · 01-25-2008, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by STA654

adanthar, are u gonna sell rudy in florida? he's only at 18.5% RCP avg. and 7 on intrade.

Best you can do is only get a sell putting up 96 to win 4... not sure if its worth it.

adanthar · 01-25-2008, 05:09 PM

@ the borgata so not around/updating much.

re: long term picks, I didn't bother updating b/c I made +0-2 points on everything I sold off except some hedges. don't have an exact Intrade total b/c I also hedged outside bets there, but I'll tally everything related to this bet up on 2/5 or 2/9.

ALawPoker · 01-25-2008, 06:57 PM

C'mon Adanthar, try to keep up. This thread is important business.

adanthar · 01-30-2008, 01:33 AM

briefly:

didn't have as much time to camp the site as I wanted today but did pick up a couple of hundred. more importantly, I did have time afterwards to get a lot of value picks in (now is the time to do it as there are no further things to sink money into prior to 2/5.)

I'm long a couple of hundred shares of GOP.Nom.McCain again at ~78 (will probably be holding it as I see no way for him to lose CA or New England now), short a couple of hundred Obama shares in MA at ~30 (if I can't sell it at a decent profit due to lack of action, I wanna hedge this somehow, but not sure how yet), and long ~300 Edwards.Dropout.Feb shares at 43 because somebody decided to sell them at 43 (I think the fair value of these is something like 70.) I've got some other assorted "guaranteed 10%" bets in too, but those are the main picks.

oh, I added up some stuff. looks like I actually lost $2850 on NH but have now made up over half of that (bigger deal than it seems b/c of less funds to work with = lower return). if McCain wins the states he is supposed to win on 2/5 or I take profits early and find some Obama/HRC value somewhere, I'll be in the black at that point pending Edwards.