Massive Republican gains in 2010 were primarily due to

[ ] Tea Party movement's profound vision for the future of America

[X] Non-Existent economic recovery under President Obama

Remember too that this was the height of fear about armed militias and in the wake of Ruby Ridge and Waco and that guy who shot-up the office building in California with a semi-automatic, so there was a certain amount of real-world momentum behind it that gave the Democrats a tail-wind.

Oh I completely agree. The problem is that isn't what you said, or what I said. You said they were a political liability. If that was actually true it would have prevented the massive gains the republicans made.

not looking to derail this thread too, but interesting how the federal government agents act extremely inappropriately in 2 of the 3 examples you give, and the political response is "let's take the guns away from the citizens"....

I don't think anything could have prevented the massive gains they made in 2010...just like McCain was never really a contender in 2008, W had made damn sure the R's weren't going to keep the white house no matter who they ran. To a lesser extent, Gore faced the same type of problem in 2000, but he was also a very weak candidate imo. McCain would have been a much better candidate with 1. Being a bit younger 2. A better campaign staff (ie not constantly preaching to the choir of the repub base and trying to convince everybody of what a conservative "real" repub he was...essentially imo he never realized he had won the primary and now needed to run against a dem lol) 3. A better VP nominee.

With all that being said, expect big gains for the Dems this year (although not to the extent the R's had last time), and an easy win for Obama, as Romney is a much weaker candidate than McCain was (can only beat Obama when talking about economy, otherwise will be made to look foolish while talking about anything else).

edit: ^^^^ this is obv. heavily dependent on voter turnout. not sure if first time (and now second time) voters will come out for Barry in the same strength they did last time. That is the real X factor in this election imo, not whether or not Romney can sway Obama voters or independents (he can't...he's too rich/disconnected/religious).

lol Dems arent going to make big gains. They are defending a ton of red state senate seats from 2006 and they simply dont have the support to take the house by storm because Obama is an albatross.

well obv. taking back the house is out of the question (not sure if even possible, haven't studied much of the breakdown yet). Senate majority will definitely increase, and as said before, Barry is a two term president.

Avatar bet on the dems gaining seats in the senate? Winner picks the losers avatar for two months.

booked.

location tag bet on presidential race?

Well, I think Obama will win.

nevermind then, obv. are we counting the two independents as Dems?

I've read up extensively on Tea Party and I promise there are more studies like this. All of them had the same conclusion: Tea Party had big impact on the 2010 primaries but, with a handful exceptions, had virtually no impact on the general elections.

http://www.thecontract.org/wp-conten...merica_CFA.pdf

High level strategists make mistakes too. The libertarian think tanks and strategists that unleashed the Tea Party are having a lot of trouble controlling the message and the movement itself. Karl Rove himself went on the attack against Bachmann and Palin.

You're right it wasn't an accident the Tea Party got co-opted by the GOP. The problem is the people that unleashed the beast are starting to wish they didn't. In other words, the GOP already views the Tea Party as a liability. Problem is due to structure of primaries, it's very hard to get rid of the Tea Party.

Long term, there are some things you cannot easily reverse. Just look at how entrenched black voters still are in the Democratic party. The Tea Party, in its current incarnation, is doing a damn good job of alienating an entire generation of social progressives and a whole lot of other groups, like LBGT(xxx)s and hispanics.

D odds of winning the House>D odds of picking up senate seats. The map is bad. Could have been worse, but if they pick up Senate seats it's a huge D wave election.

Both are unlikely, maybe 1 in 3 shots?