Nevada Caucus Sweat/Trip Report thread

[krmont22]

Old ladies can be pretty conniving and evil

[spaceman Bryce]

Originally Posted by krmont22

Old ladies can be pretty conniving and evil

this is true... touche romney touche

[Fermion5]

2012 NV Caucus Final Results
Romney === 16,513 (50.15%)
Gingrich === 6,958 (21.13%)
Paul ====== 6,179 (18.76%)
Santorum == 3,280 ( 9.96%)

Total turnout: 32,930.
Implied delgates: Romney = 14, Gingrich = 6, Paul = 5, Santorum = 3.

[kowboys4]

Originally Posted by Fermion5

2012 NV Caucus Final Results
Romney === 16,513 (50.15%)
Gingrich === 6,958 (21.13%)
Paul ====== 6,179 (18.76%)
Santorum == 3,280 ( 9.96%)

Total turnout: 32,930.
Implied delgates: Romney = 14, Gingrich = 6, Paul = 5, Santorum = 3.

This is a break even result imo. Romney doesn't have more delegates then Gingrich/Paul/Santorum in what should have been a home run state for him. Obviously the media is playing it up that way but its just not.

The next states:
Maine -
This is another state that Romney should hit a home run in but if he gets less then half the delegates again I think he's going to be left wanting and since the Maine Caucus takes a much longer time it will get way less press.

Colorado -
PPP - Romney - 40, Santorum - 26, Gingrich - 18, Paul - 12
This state isnt' as friendly to Romney but again if he is going to get the delegates he needs he needs to be winning over half the delegates in these caucuses where the electorate is more favorable to him.

Minnesota -
PPP - Santorum - 29, Romney - 27, Gingrich - 22, Paul - 19
Can you say wow!?!? Not only is he losing but he is only polling +8% over paul here. Could you fathom the headlines if he not only didn't win a caucus but came in 3rd or 4th? That alone could push this back into a race. I think a Romney win in Minnesota could send some people packing. But if he doesn't there is a debate right after this race heading into Arizona where if he looks vulnerable you know that these guys will tear into him like its going out of style and your looking at a new race again. I think Minnesota is the biggest state after Florida so far.

[kowboys4]

I just realized I may be a little out of order here.

Maine Caucus is held from the 4th - 11th (In Progress?) - 24 delegates (10 At large)

February 7th -
Colorado Caucus - 36 delegates
Minnesota Caucus - 40 delegates
Missouri Primary - 52 delegates


Some interesting notes.
- All of these contests are non-binding meaning that the delegates even after they are selected remain unbound to cast their vote for any candidate at the convention. The same goes for Nevada so while the media apportions candidate based on the vote the actual number of delegates remains in question (so its likely that the number of Paul delegates in Nevada is likely higher, etc.).

- Missouri holds a primary on the 7th but it won't select delegates until March 12th. I'm not sure whether Missouri will actually receive that much press coverage but hopefully it will.

- Newt Gingrich missed the filing deadline to be on the Missouri Primary ballot. This might be the first insight to see where his voters will go since he will not be on the ballot.

- Minnesota going to be crazy y'all.


Book February 7th on your calenders imo. Should be the real test of where this race is going.

[steelhouse]

I looked at wikipedia 2008 elections. RP will win Clark County by wide margin, as he did in 2008. I keep hearing RP has disappointing Nevada results. Stepanieawefulous comes out saying he had a disappointing result when he finished 2nd last year (13.7% 6,087). He got (19%, 5898) with 10% or so of the vote missing in 2012.

You can also doctor an election by adding votes making it null and void. But, I think someone should take Nevada to court, to make sure they do the whole election over, at least Clark county. You can't deny a person to their vote and that is a felony.

[krmont22]

Wasn't there a lawyer from each rep at the recounts?

[AlexM]

Though really it's worth noting that examiner.com, where the story about the possible election fraud with that Taso pointed out has obviously false information came from, is the same source as the story linked a couple days ago in the Ron Paul thread about possible ties between Ron Paul and a white supremacist organization that had zero credibility or even evidence.

[David99]

as long as sant and ging are splitting the vote rom cant lose

[ErikTheDread]

Originally Posted by steelhouse

But, I think someone should take Nevada to court, to make sure they do the whole election over, at least Clark county.

You do realize that won't happen, right?