Medicinal Marijuana in Florida makes 2014 Ballot - Page 2 - Politics and Economics

Ok. If it passes with 76.00% of the vote or more you win, if it passes with less than 76.00% or doesn't pass I win. $50? Reply with booked to, uh, book it.

Why would I take that bet?

You think it wont pass, so put your money where your mouth is at that line.

01-27-2014 , 09:17 PM

#27

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

The good ole' DVaut rule about right wingers only being willing to go so far with unskewing the polls in full effect

01-28-2014 , 03:37 AM

#28

Peter Porker

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,877

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Boss

Ok. If it passes with 76.00% of the vote or more you win, if it passes with less than 76.00% or doesn't pass I win. $50? Reply with booked to, uh, book it.

How about this:

If it passes with 76.00% of the vote or more I win, if it passes with less than 76.00% or doesn't pass I win. $50? Reply with booked to, uh, book it.

01-28-2014 , 08:32 AM

#29

Your Boss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,821

Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

Why would I take that bet?

You think it wont pass, so put your money where your mouth is at that line.

Let's review.

I say, "man, I'm not quite as confident this is going to pass as other people are". Def can see how you would read that as a hard line stance though. Very definitive language.

You say "lol, here are some polls showing 82% and 70% support". Essentially, of course this is going to pass by a massive margin.

I split the difference in your polls and offer you a bet at even money. You....lose faith in your polls?

01-28-2014 , 08:53 AM

#30

DonkJr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 5,323

The point is that it is going to pass, not that it is going to pass by one of the largest margins in FL history. Nobody thinks you are being clever.

01-28-2014 , 09:07 AM

#31

Your Boss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,821

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxGodJrxX

The point is that it is going to pass, not that it is going to pass by one of the largest margins in FL history. Nobody thinks you are being clever.

I'm not trying to be clever?

I think it's more likely than not to pass, I'm just not as confident as others seem to be about it, and more specifically I think the margins in the polls overstate the support. Phill posted a poll showing 82% support in response to my first post itt. I'm giving him a discount IMO.

01-28-2014 , 10:10 AM

#32

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Boss

Well, in everyone else's defense, you did literally just make some **** up about Hispanics being the voting bloc that polls can't predict.

And then, apparently, you believe that a fair line here is the average of two polls cited. You got a lot more faith in those polls! Splitting the difference indicates that you believe those polls to be accurate!

If there's this groundswell of anti-pot sentiment among Hispanics that for some reason polls can't pick up(lol where'd you read that? Why would they lie to a pollster?), shouldn't the 70% be high?

01-28-2014 , 10:16 AM

#33

[Phill]

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 52,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Boss

I'm not nearly as convinced of its chances of passing = I bet it will pass at up to 75% is one if the dumbest things I have ever read.

I agree you are not trying to be clever, you are just struggling to be average.

01-28-2014 , 01:05 PM

#34

Your Boss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,821

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

So.....same offer to you then?

01-28-2014 , 01:12 PM

#35

Your Boss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,821

Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

I think the amendment passes more than half the time so I wouldn't take an even bet strictly on it passing.

I also think the polls you cited overstate support. You seem to believe the polls are accurate.

If you think that, why wouldn't you bet at the 76% number? Do you think it will pass, but with less % of the vote than that?

01-28-2014 , 01:30 PM

#36

Namath12

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Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 55,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

Ill entertain taking a bet on it passing, you are the one who insists it wont because something something cubans.

I don't think it will pass because of the money the Koch's are gonna pour into FL to get this WOAT governor re elected, not because Cubans.

01-28-2014 , 01:43 PM

#37

spanktehbadwookie

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Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 19,374

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ashington

I don't think it will pass because of the money the Koch's are gonna pour into FL to get this WOAT governor re elected, not because Cubans.

That's kinda what I meant about waiting for the ducks to start lining up and quacking.

01-28-2014 , 01:46 PM

#38

Namath12

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Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 55,849

I saw a local news station do an outright hit piece on medical marijuana a few weeks ago (DO YOU REALLY WANT THIS IN YOUR STATE?!?), still trying to find the video.

01-28-2014 , 02:10 PM

#39

Your Boss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,821

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ashington

I saw a local news station do an outright hit piece on medical marijuana a few weeks ago (DO YOU REALLY WANT THIS IN YOUR STATE?!?), still trying to find the video.

Orlando? I saw the promo for the piece, but that's all. Promo was hilarious though.

01-28-2014 , 02:40 PM

#40

[Phill]

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Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 52,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ashington

I don't think it will pass because of the money the Koch's are gonna pour into FL to get this WOAT governor re elected, not because Cubans.

Medical weed places make so much cash they literally don't know what to do with it. That cash will negate any tea bag hypocrisy can that floods the state.

01-28-2014 , 02:50 PM

#41

Namath12

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Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 55,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Boss

Orlando? I saw the promo for the piece, but that's all. Promo was hilarious though.

Yep. Really need to find the piece, I bet it's on their FB feed.

"ONE MAN WE SPOKE TO SAID HE NEEDS IT TO HELP HIM SLEEP RAWR!"

01-28-2014 , 02:53 PM

#42

spanktehbadwookie

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Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 19,374

Prohibitionist bias against marijuana in the media? That's a longstanding and overt bias we can easily confirm.

Since the very beginning. One could state accurately the mainstream media (Hearst et al.) of the 1920 and 30s directly help cause prohibition and a trend was born.

Modern day media loves it's polls though, and from my observations have mostly stopped laughing now that a marijuana majority sustains.

01-28-2014 , 06:49 PM

#43

longmissedblind

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,733

This is the reason Charlie Crist hasn't been spending a ton of money on his campaign. His normal MO has been to wait until crunch time and blast ads running up to the election. Morgan et al made a calculation that this would be the grassroots angle they would need.

I M O

01-28-2014 , 07:21 PM

#44

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Boss

So.....same offer to you then?

I don't believe the polls are incorrect, either, dude. I'm like you. In the absence of doing any research outside this thread, we have

1) A properly cited poll from a year ago
2) An uncited poll from 3 months ago
3) Your Bosses faith that Hispanics don't like weed

I'm comfortable discarding the 3rd item and averaging the first two.

01-28-2014 , 07:35 PM

#45

spanktehbadwookie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by longmissedblind

Florida Marijuana Bomb is a "weapon" I can get behind.

01-28-2014 , 07:37 PM

#46

Peter Porker

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,877

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

So, you're claiming that Hispanics like weed?

01-28-2014 , 07:41 PM

#47

spanktehbadwookie

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Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 19,374

A bigger picture question..... As a partisan issue is marijuana growing to become a wedge, a stake, or a platform with enough room to stand upon?

I've seen some partisan cracks in even in Alabama's GOP supermajority. And well we are right next to Florida, lol. Another good spot to divorce from the moral majority if they cling to prohibition. At this point agreeing with legal marijuana is the same as agreeing with Obama and we have seen how far that goes with the base.

01-28-2014 , 07:56 PM

#48

Your Boss

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,821

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Wat? You don't believe the polls are incorrect? So you think they're......correct?

But you think a betting line splitting the difference in the polls is...something something not good?

01-28-2014 , 08:32 PM

#49

longmissedblind

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,733

Quote:

Originally Posted by spanktehbadwookie

It'll be interesting to see if some young GOP or libertarian candidates pick this up as a way to woo young voters. Of course with Scott and Bondi towing the Hearst/DuPont line I doubt there will be uniform acceptance at the top. But I'm pretty sure someone with an R after their name will at least attempt to counter the libs4weed noise.

01-28-2014 , 09:03 PM

#50

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Boss

Wat? You don't believe the polls are incorrect? So you think they're......correct?

But you think a betting line splitting the difference in the polls is...something something not good?

I'm not sure you understand how prop betting works. But dudes, trust Your Boss here, HE TOTALLY read something about Hispanics secretly breaking against weed.

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