Einbert, the math in that thinkprogress.org article is loltastic.

You should read it again and think about why it is a terrible article.

This is totally right. The Republican party IS TRUMP, in many ways, from top to bottom. They have no good ideas, they have no compassion or concern for peoples' well-being, they are intellectually bankrupt and have nothing real to offer the American people from top to bottom. Remember Rubio, who was supposed to be the shining moderate in the crowd of Republican crazies? His big move during the primaries was saying "Obama intentionally hurt the country." John McCain is often considered a reasonable "Maverick" Republican, he voted for Jeff Sessions to be confirmed as AG knowing that it would destroy voting rights, civil rights, and lead to increased private prisons and suffering all over the country. The entire Republican party is completely heinous, Trump is just less polished of a turd than the rest of 'em.

Oh **** off. If you want me to believe anything you have to say you're going to have to prove it.

Speaking only for myself. I voted the first time in 12 years of eligibility just to oppose Trump and i will vote in 2018 for the first time in a mid term election.

This time is different.

Most of the posts in the Trump thread aren't about legislation or Gorsuch, they're about him appointing bona fide Nazis and white supremacists to his administration and tweeting frighteningly unhinged conspiracy theories. So yeah, fewer posts.

I mean it should be pretty obvious to even the most casual observer the writers of the article are in no ways mathematicians. Yet despite this, they attempt to combine the numbers in two separate studies with some "look at me i can do division" level analysis and intentionally mislead the reader in to associating the results of their "analysis" with the legitimacy of Harvard or the Congressional Budget Office.

Even if we were to believe the legitimacy of the two underlying studies, the author divides an estimate of insurance rate on a national level with a correlation estimate to death rate on the state level. Take an estimate, divide by another estimate on partial data, add a pinch of appeal to authority protect yourself a bit by stating its not an exact science.

Might as well divine the stars.

I am also skeptical of the 2 underlying studies but without looking at the methodology, i cant comment. I will say that usually when looking at prediction models of highly complex systems for something as far away as 9 years, nobody knows.

Fair enough. See thank you for taking the time to actually counter the article, I actually appreciate that.

Apologies for my initial curtness. I just wanted to do my first DUCY in many a moons in the spirit of 2+2.

That's okay, tensions are high right now and I don't take it personally.

The problem is that trumps policy prescriptions all aim to fix problems that don't exist and create a bunch of their own problems. Trump being successful means a bunch of new problems are created for the country, so any sort of, "Why can't we all just hope they're successful," sentiment is completely misguided.

I'm actually very surprised at how incompetent the GOP has been at pushing their policies, I mean, they essentially control all three branches of the federal government and they haven't even passed any tax cuts yet. Really, the only things trump has accomplished are trump things, like if we assume the GOP would be this incompetent with one of their own clowns at the head, literally nothing would have gotten done so far and we'd have nothing to post about.

The GOP is deathly afraid of its base. They know passing a 'tax cut' would be blasphemous to a good chunk of their voters. Not the guaranteed R vote because my taxes will be better crowd, the leaning R because they might get rid of the browns and life isn't so great and what have i been doing not learning the last 20 years crowd that hopes their coal jobs and 30 bucks an hour to do the same motion with their hands 4000 times a day crowd. They know if they voted for a tax cut for the well off, those people would abandon them in the midterms. Instead, they propose the AHCA. 880 billion dollar tax cut over 10 years by kicking poor people and olds off medicaid. The Republican leadership is betting the people are too stupid and too addicted to the slogan that obama is the root of all their problems that they will let it happen. If they can just hold out until either War or midterms while keeping the public vitriol on democrats, then they can unleash the 'free market' on America. They benefit BIGLY from Trump posturing for war and eliminating diplomacy as our main avenue in world affairs. When we go to war, the whole country loses its ****ing mind and civil liberties become a wishy washy guideline rather than fundamental rights guaranteed by the constitution.

Einbert was right when he said the Republican Party is TRUMP. Or at least, the Republican party congresscritters can't win elections while being honest with the public. Ezra Klein on the last episode of Trumpcast talked with Jamelle Bouie and Jacob Weisberg and made this argument in a much more articulate fashion.

The Onion is getting too good

http://www.theonion.com/article/conv...profits--55560

Guys, is SlateStarCodex any good? I want to be cool, but I don't much care for the writing style and often can't tell what his point is. Any tips on the essential reading from it?

No.

If you are interested in seeing an aspie dude with a 140 IQ expound at great length upon public policy questions that someone with average intelligence could answer in a paragraph, yes.

I don't know, you're probably right, but I think you're giving everyone involved just way too much credit. In my conversations with people that make up the GOP base, they know pretty much nothing about the world and how it works. Like I was having a discussion about the economy with a guy the other day and halfway through I realized he thought we wanted the unemployment % to be high, because it got lower under Obama and obviously Obama was the worst thing ever, so nothing could have gotten better.

Probably right. If I had a time machine, I'd go back in time and vote Hillary. It would change your life, my life, our nation, and perhaps the very world.

Of course, it could also break the time/space continuum and destroy the universe, but that seems like a small price to pay.

I can appreciate somebody that admits when they made a mistake. And I went way overboard on the name-calling in that post directed at you, my apologies.

lol at INAR2 haters

Hard no. Extremely hard no. His crying wolf post that went viral literally misunderstood a child's fable and has aged, uh, real poorly for an article that is only 4 months old. There is no essential reading, you were here for people posting about how Jim Crow wasn't racist, right? Imagine that but without a the self-editing impulse the quick reply box imposes.

The Trump voters who can be reached are those people, people who didn't full grasp the stakes of the election, and the blame for not educating people about the stakes falls almost entirely on Clinton.

It's really my fault for drunk posting.

Stupid 'don't post politics in the politics drunk thread' rule.

But never post drunk what you aren't willing to defend sober. ~ Hemingway.

lol you, pvn. lol you

Re: SSC. Thanks. That's kind of what I thought from the beginning.

I'm holding out hope INAR is on some next level comedy bender.

The ~2010 or w/e reunion of the pixies was so good, too bad they got rid of Kim and started making new music that is not very good. Was lucky enough to see them with Kim on their first reunion tour.