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Old 02-07-2017, 10:49 AM   #151
daca
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

le pen is at 25% on betfair, trump was at roughly the same, brexit was at a little more, hofer was a little more still iirc.

there's probably been some smaller lessons learned, but i dont think there's some great message there. youre not going to fade everything.
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Old 02-07-2017, 10:55 AM   #152
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Everyday at noon local time, there will be a poll published here. 500 people polled everyday with a one third rolling everyday for 1.5k people overall.

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Old 02-07-2017, 11:03 AM   #153
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by LordJvK View Post
We were told that Hilary had a 90% chance of winning.

I remember talking to me friend in Philly who told me he had no chance of carrying Pennsylvania and just went to bed fully expecting to wake up to a Hilary victory.

Now, I know the situation is different from country to country, but there was near certainty from pundits on US election, including one data analyst on the Times podcast who said he'd eat his hat if he was wrong.

Obviously, I do not have a view from inside of France, only from the outside, but I just see reports that the mood in the country is not a million miles away from the mood here or in the US.

I have less faith in data than I used to.

We will see soon enough.
Well , 538 had hillary at 70 not 90, and mistakes in modeling the RESULTS are only partially linked to poll data. You can add more mistakes with the modeling, and state-poll data were not very good to begin with.

For france instead, you need no modeling, it's an up or down vote, nationally. You still have many systemic mistake possibilities, but for the 64-36 to be wrong (and with that we mean, for the vote to go in favor of the 36 if they voted tomorrow) will mean like 3 or 4 orders of magnitude of mistake more than with the US election estimates.

Like trump winning 48 states or something like that.
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Old 02-07-2017, 11:04 AM   #154
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by daca View Post
le pen is at 25% on betfair, trump was at roughly the same, brexit was at a little more, hofer was a little more still iirc.

there's probably been some smaller lessons learned, but i dont think there's some great message there. youre not going to fade everything.
Hofer lost though, and that was after trump winning.
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Old 02-07-2017, 11:29 AM   #155
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

For future reference, that's called a.tracking poll.
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Old 02-07-2017, 09:06 PM   #156
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I think the France bar on this chart is relevant:

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordJvK View Post
Interesting this:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/...im-immigration

This is a Chatham House poll of 10 countries in Europe. 54% actually agreed with Donald Trump's travel ban.

Take a look that this:

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Old 02-08-2017, 09:47 AM   #157
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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We were told that Hilary had a 90% chance of winning.
That might have been right. She won the popular vote by a wide margin, and nearly won the electoral college. A few states going the other way and the election goes the other way. The thing is a 1 in 10 happens a lot.
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Old 02-11-2017, 09:09 AM   #158
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Time to send in the Marines!
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Old 02-12-2017, 06:52 AM   #159
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02...ench-collapse/

This was an interesting listen. Much more cause to be pessimistic than people in this thread have been making out.
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:23 PM   #160
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

if youre not a little panicked and having brexit/trump related nightmares then i dont know where you spent the last year

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Old 02-21-2017, 04:46 PM   #161
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Are Russian internet trolls posting a bunch of pro-Le Pen nonsense on French language news sites?
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Old 02-21-2017, 05:51 PM   #162
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

is there going to be a debate before the first round?
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Old 02-21-2017, 06:57 PM   #163
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

- I'm officially shook. Zombie Fillon now has a high first round floor, high enough to get to the second round, and a second round ceiling that is uncomfortably low.

- Russian medias mostly attack Macron. Various alt right trolls (homegrown and foreign) also organize twitter campaigns against him.

- There will be a debate for the largest clowns in the car on march 20.
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Old 02-21-2017, 07:35 PM   #164
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen winning would be their Brexit moment.

Fillon appears to be bad but not Le Pen type bad. Not going to destroy the EU and implement Nazi-esque policies bad.
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Old 02-21-2017, 08:40 PM   #165
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I would be shocked if Fillon wins. You can be sure it's going to be 5 years with a very divided country where nothing gets done. I would probably take it to the streets myself for the first time in my life. Also his pro russian stance seems fishy to me but that's just me being paranoid.

If le pen wins, then **** me. I'll graduate then gtfo of this country.
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Old 02-22-2017, 12:04 AM   #166
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen is going to win.
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:11 AM   #167
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

basically the centre/left is splitting 3 ways and the right only 2 so france will end up having to choose between the dodgy thatcherite millionaire and the fascist
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Old 02-22-2017, 08:02 AM   #168
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Macron is a fart in the wind, le Ricky Rubio.
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Old 02-22-2017, 08:12 AM   #169
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen is the most popular candidate so are people finally discussing why?
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Old 02-22-2017, 08:19 AM   #170
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

She brings together traditional racists and some peoples pissed off at euroland, i think it's the latter that puts her slightly higher than usual.
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Old 02-22-2017, 08:20 AM   #171
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

le pen is going to jail apparently
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Old 02-22-2017, 08:30 AM   #172
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

would lmao.

Not sure who fired the scud missile at Fillon but it had me greatly entertained. Can't believe the timing is random.

It's Macron obv
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Old 02-22-2017, 09:13 AM   #173
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by daca View Post
le pen is going to jail apparently
I think that's a stretch.

I had to google to see what you were talking about.

Quote:
French police searched the headquarters of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National on Monday evening as part of an official investigation into “fake” jobs involving the misuse of European Union funds to pay for a bodyguard and an assistant in Paris.

Brussels investigators claim Le Pen paid her bodyguard, Thierry Légier, more than €41,500 (£35,350) between October and December 2011, by falsely claiming he was an EU parliamentary assistant.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ided-by-police

Man these euro scandals are weak sauce. Isn't there any EMAILZ or pussy grabbin'?
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Old 02-22-2017, 10:04 AM   #174
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

These are tough times for the EU. UK already left. France will have a hard Eurosceptic party as the most powerful one. We already have soft Eurosceptic parties in Denmark, Poland, and Hungary as the top parties in their countries. But how long is it before they take a hard line? Or before hard Eurosceptic parties take over? Imagine parties like Jobbik in Hungary taking over other EU countries.



It's like if Stormfront forum members had their own country.

Not sure how we don't see at least one country withdraw from the EU in the next few years.

Last edited by BrettFavre; 02-22-2017 at 10:22 AM.
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Old 02-22-2017, 10:15 AM   #175
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999 View Post
I think that's a stretch.

I had to google to see what you were talking about.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ided-by-police

Man these euro scandals are weak sauce. Isn't there any EMAILZ or pussy grabbin'?
it heated up a little bit http://www.reuters.com/article/us-fr...-idUSKBN1610XQ

but yeah she's not going to jail and her voters will care less that she's corrupt when it's eu money they're stealing.
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