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Old 01-30-2017, 12:25 PM   #126
Mr.mmmKay
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
Furthermore I thought the Brexit and Trump would never happen.
So Le Pen it is
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:21 PM   #127
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

So new accusations came out against Fillon. Pretty damning at this point. His defense strategy is terrible too. He screams conspiracy theories but does not try to prove that his family members actually worked lol.

Will Fillon be at the second round?



This morning "yes" was at 44%. Right now it's at 23. He is probably gone by next week. Hopefully he clings to his spot and try a climb from here.

Same question for Macron:



He gained around 6% today. I'm not sure that's good for Macron tbh. If Juppé replaces Fillon, that's definitely eating on Macron voters.
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Old 02-01-2017, 06:49 AM   #128
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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So new accusations came out against Fillon. Pretty damning at this point. His defense strategy is terrible too. He screams conspiracy theories but does not try to prove that his family members actually worked lol.
Yes, it's amazing to me, but I'm beginning to think it's possible he's done. Just saw that when his wife was interviewed by the police yesterday she said she had no recollection of having signed her work contract, and had no access badge or email address at the parliament where she was supposedly working.

Don't know why, with all that's going on, this story particularly bothers me, especially as this sort of corruption is rife in politics I think. I do find the particularly naked manner in which he used his political office to just hand his family about a million euros rather breathtaking. He should just pull a Trump and claim it's great deal making, I guess. However, as you say, he seems to just slightly hysterically talk about "how dare you bring my wife into this!", which comes across as totally missing the point.

Last edited by pyatnitski; 02-01-2017 at 06:52 AM. Reason: It's actually better, they couldn't find any employment contracts *and* she couldn't remember signing any
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:17 AM   #129
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38853841

I'm calling it, she will win.
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:56 AM   #130
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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If Le Pen's support didn't increase massively after Paris and Nice attacks, I don't see how this one makes much difference.
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Old 02-03-2017, 12:08 PM   #131
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

That was just an epic fail, nobody will talk about this in 3 days

But POTUS obviously already jumped on the news
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Old 02-03-2017, 12:44 PM   #132
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

lol at it being big news in the US. It's higher on some American news sites than on French ones. Dont you people have actual serious **** going on in your own country right now?
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Old 02-03-2017, 02:59 PM   #133
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Just learned that Macron met his wife when she was his high school French teacher. Thought the French only did that in the movies.
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Old 02-03-2017, 06:29 PM   #134
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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lol at it being big news in the US. It's higher on some American news sites than on French ones. Dont you people have actual serious **** going on in your own country right now?
Trump's using it to justify his 'Muslim in all but name' ban.
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Old 02-05-2017, 09:22 AM   #135
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Old 02-06-2017, 10:08 AM   #136
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

ugh



basically macron doesnt have much of a base and le pen against fillon or hamon could be uncomfortably close, no?
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Old 02-06-2017, 10:12 AM   #137
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Is there a good English-language website that gets in to the nitty-gritty of French politics?
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Old 02-06-2017, 12:14 PM   #138
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Hamon vs Le Pen could be a disaster. Fillon still beats her 60% to 40% in recent polls. That number didnt change even though Fillon dropped in first round polls, there's really a clear divide between the Le Pen voters and the others.

I know polls were "wrong" about Brexit and Trump but they were not double-digit wrong. I really dont see how Le Pen can win without something crazy happening.

Things still look good for Macron. imo the biggest risk for him would be Fillon dropping out and getting replaced by some popular and honest center-right candidate (if they can find one), and so far Fillon is insisting on defending himself terribly and staying in the race.
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Old 02-06-2017, 03:29 PM   #139
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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getting replaced by some popular and honest center-right candidate (if they can find one)
Right of center no one is honest.
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Old 02-06-2017, 08:28 PM   #140
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I just have a funny feeling in my bones it's going to happen again.
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Old 02-06-2017, 08:56 PM   #141
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

nah
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Old 02-06-2017, 09:07 PM   #142
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Are there good reasons why not? On the face of it, France has always seemed a more racist and definitely mire nationalist country than U.K.
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Old 02-07-2017, 03:47 AM   #143
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:11 AM   #144
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Are there good reasons why not? On the face of it, France has always seemed a more racist and definitely mire nationalist country than U.K.
Polls and the way the election is setup with its 2 rounds. Read the thread, the question has come up like 3 or 4 times.

Also polls in France are considered of very good quality and the rules make it that it is easy to poll (no electoral college state by state etc...).
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:12 AM   #145
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Polls and the way the election is setup with its 2 rounds. Read the thread, the question has come up like 3 or 4 times.

Also polls in France are considered of very good quality and the rules make it that it is easy to poll (no electoral college state by state etc...).
Okay great. Let's hope you are right.
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Old 02-07-2017, 08:31 AM   #146
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Okay great. Let's hope you are right.
So you dont want Le Pen to win, but really really think she will?

Seems consistent.
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Old 02-07-2017, 08:55 AM   #147
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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So you dont want Le Pen to win, but really really think she will?

Seems consistent.
I didn't want Brexit, and I didn't want Trump either and both of those things happened, despite all common sense and data suggesting they would not.

Every sign to me suggests the same will happen in France, despite difference in the system.

There is nothing contradictory in thinking this.
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Old 02-07-2017, 10:04 AM   #148
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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I didn't want Brexit, and I didn't want Trump either and both of those things happened, despite all common sense and data suggesting they would not.

Every sign to me suggests the same will happen in France, despite difference in the system.

There is nothing contradictory in thinking this.
Which signs? france voted recently (2015, regional election, let's call them "gubernatorial races" if you want an american translation) and the front national was the 1st party in 6 out of 12 regions, but on the second round it lost everywhere. And that was close to a big terrorist attack.

The massacre was on november 13th and they voted in early december.

§Not saying Le Pen here will lose automatically but there seems to be no connection between trump/brexit vote , and france presidential election, no similitude a part for the political offer.

Trump got mostly the votes that republicans always get(even is geographically distributed slightly differently, to his advantage in the EC). National polls were 3.5/4 in favore of clinton, actual result was +2.2.

Brexit was polled at 51-49 for remain and went 48-52, not a huge swing.

Here you have a 64-36 (!!!) poll Macron vs Le Pen on the 2nd round... you understand that for it to be wrong it would mean something like california voting republican for the EC in 2016 right?

So IF (big IF) it's le pen vs macron les jeux sont fait, gg Le Pen.

Problem is, like other people pointed out, if it's Le Pen vs some1 else.

Vs Fillon, the scandal could get worse, and people on the left could stay at home en mass.

Vs Hamon, centrists and "sane of mind" people could stay at home en mass.

So Le Pen has chances yes. But not against Macron.
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Old 02-07-2017, 10:11 AM   #149
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

We were told that Hilary had a 90% chance of winning.

I remember talking to me friend in Philly who told me he had no chance of carrying Pennsylvania and just went to bed fully expecting to wake up to a Hilary victory.

Now, I know the situation is different from country to country, but there was near certainty from pundits on US election, including one data analyst on the Times podcast who said he'd eat his hat if he was wrong.

Obviously, I do not have a view from inside of France, only from the outside, but I just see reports that the mood in the country is not a million miles away from the mood here or in the US.

I have less faith in data than I used to.

We will see soon enough.
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Old 02-07-2017, 10:39 AM   #150
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

If you think the data is wrong feel free to bet against it and make lots of money. You'll find takers in this thread.
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