Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Politics political discourse

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-24-2017, 10:08 AM   #101
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

@ pyatnitski

Good analysis. One thing tho.

There is some overlap between Le Pen and Macron's voting pool. Think of the "**** everything PS / UMP" crowd that just wants to give the middle finger to the usual suspects but does not share any of the immigration hate from the Front National. Yeah, it's probably not as many people from the Fillon's clan that are possibly tempted to vote Macron but it's nothing to laugh at.

IMO, if Macron was to reach the second round, it is 40% of the time versus Fillon, 60% of the time versus Le Pen. Both of which he crushes EASILY (think 60/40).
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2017, 10:10 AM   #102
joejoe1337
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
joejoe1337's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
Posts: 10,534
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999 View Post
French political question:

Le Pen is near automatic to make it to the second round, yes?

Is Le Pen more likely to beat Fillon (conservative) or Macron (rebranded socialist party) in the second round?

Edit: It appears via my Wikipedia opinion polls googling that regardless she would lose a runoff 60/40 to either candidate.
What do you mean by near automatic? She's never been above 27% and Macron is mostly hoovering around 20%. That's certainly not insurmountable in 3 months.

I also think that it's slightly lazy reasoning to assume that everyone will gather around to stop Le Pen in the second round.
joejoe1337 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2017, 11:25 AM   #103
GBV
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 1,318
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337 View Post
What do you mean by near automatic? She's never been above 27% and Macron is mostly hoovering around 20%. That's certainly not insurmountable in 3 months.

I also think that it's slightly lazy reasoning to assume that everyone will gather around to stop Le Pen in the second round.
That was what happened with her Father so it is a reasonable assumption. It may not happen but it isn't lazy to go on historical precedent in the absence of alternative information.
GBV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2017, 11:25 AM   #104
pyatnitski
centurion
 
pyatnitski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 182
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
There is some overlap between Le Pen and Macron's voting pool. Think of the "**** everything PS / UMP" crowd that just wants to give the middle finger to the usual suspects but does not share any of the immigration hate from the Front National. Yeah, it's probably not as many people from the Fillon's clan that are possibly tempted to vote Macron but it's nothing to laugh at.
I just don't know if I can believe that these voters exist to any great extent. I accept that the characterisation seems like it makes sense, though, and one thing I definitely don't understand in French politics is the wider political background of where voters for each party come from, and so where they're likely to move.

My impression is that the majority of Macron's voters are traditional centrists, the right of the PS and those who think liberal business orientated economics are the way forward (whose constituencies overlap, certainly). And that Le Pen's support is mostly the traditional right vote, which is now orientated around the FN after her having reduced the stigma of supporting it. Put like that it seems two distinct communities (liberal economics isn't the FN's bag at all), but obv political coalitions are never this simple in reality.

I may just be importing prejudices from UK and US politics, though, and not appreciating the novelty of Le Pen's support this time round.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337 View Post
I also think that it's slightly lazy reasoning to assume that everyone will gather around to stop Le Pen in the second round.
Whilst I agree this shouldn't be counted as automatic, it's not lazy thinking - it's based on exactly this happening every time recently that the FN does well in a first round. It happened in the regional elections in 2015 - although there were examples of PS in some regions flirting with refusing to play ball. You can see it in the election results here:

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89...15#Second_tour

For the 'republican' left and right there's a decent correlation between share of vote and seats won, for the FN there's a discrepancy (many fewer seats). The voters for the left and right do seem to be able to effectively collaborate to some extent to maximise their effect. Also the non FN increased their votes by 25% in the second round, whilst the FN got out 13% more. The anti FN effect from 1st to 2nd round seems demonstratively real, but certainly not worth being complacent about.
pyatnitski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2017, 11:40 AM   #105
guivre1408
veteran
 
guivre1408's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,631
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV View Post
That was what happened with her Father so it is a reasonable assumption. It may not happen but it isn't lazy to go on historical precedent in the absence of alternative information.
That happened only once in 2002, and he lost 80/20 in the 2nd round
guivre1408 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2017, 11:44 AM   #106
joejoe1337
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
joejoe1337's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
Posts: 10,534
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV View Post
That was what happened with her Father so it is a reasonable assumption. It may not happen but it isn't lazy to go on historical precedent in the absence of alternative information.
Yes I'm aware but that's precisely what makes it lazy thinking, to assume that the conditions are the same because the two candidates share a last name. There are a lot of other factors at play here, like the very effective job MLP has done at normalising the party (or at least, compared to her father).
joejoe1337 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2017, 12:38 PM   #107
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

So today, Le Canard Enchainé released an article that claims Fillon's wife, Pénélope, had a fake job as Fillon's assistant when he was a député.

It could be nothing or it could be a huge blow to Fillon's campaign given that he had built his campaign on integrity. Until today, he was one of the few politicians known as clean.

Good for Macron and Le Pen which ultimately means good for Macron.
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2017, 09:00 PM   #108
jman220
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
jman220's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: My gimmick account is still a mod.
Posts: 9,960
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
So today, Le Canard Enchainé released an article that claims Fillon's wife, Pénélope, had a fake job as Fillon's assistant when he was a député.

It could be nothing or it could be a huge blow to Fillon's campaign given that he had built his campaign on integrity. Until today, he was one of the few politicians known as clean.

Good for Macron and Le Pen which ultimately means good for Macron.
Like when Rubio going off the deep end with juvenile insults was good for Ted Cruz, and is why Americans now have a President Cruz?
jman220 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2017, 08:30 AM   #109
pyatnitski
centurion
 
pyatnitski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 182
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

It seems like the Fillon scandal isn't going to go away soon, and is a pretty bad look for him. His wife was drawing a considerable government salary as an assistant for years (up to 8,000 euros a month), but a steady stream of people who knew him professionally, including his biographer, have said they had no idea she worked with him.

Last night he claimed that his wife has worked for him 'always', since 1981. However there's various quotes from her over the years saying stuff like "I don't really have a role, I just accompany him from time to time, things like that. That's the extent of it".

He's said he'll step down if he's 'mise en examen', which is roughly something like charged with a crime in the French system, but I'd be surprised if it came to that - I'm sure there's some administrative fig leaf that was put in place to make sure no actual rules were broken. Though who knows, apparently at least 10 other deputies have contacted the authorities since the news broke to change their arrangements with assistants, presumably to make sure they're 100% above board. A few MPs were actually convicted of fraud over expenses a couple of years back in the UK, which I would never have said could actually happen.

If he just rides this out, staying a candidate and not proved to have broken rules, then I would guess it doesn't affect the election massively, but things could go in plenty of directions from here and even a small dip in support could potentially see him out of the second round. It's certainly true he cultivated an air of being the only not corrupt candidate in the primary, but as the fairly locked in nominee of a significant party then there has to be a big amount of inertia to his vote.

Who it helps the most I really don't know, the FN is mired in multiple scandals of this type already, about paying people that shouldn't be with EU funds, but, as ever, why would those flirting with a vote for them start thinking particularly sensibly now.
pyatnitski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2017, 08:47 AM   #110
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
Like when Rubio going off the deep end with juvenile insults was good for Ted Cruz, and is why Americans now have a President Cruz?
The french election system was entirely designed after WW2 to block extremist parties to win the presidential. If you want to win, you MUST make alliances with the candidates who lost in the first round.

This is why France is safe (for now) against the Le Pen.
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 08:17 AM   #111
An_Reathai
newbie
 
An_Reathai's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 40
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
So today, Le Canard Enchainé released an article that claims Fillon's wife, Pénélope, had a fake job as Fillon's assistant when he was a député.

It could be nothing or it could be a huge blow to Fillon's campaign given that he had built his campaign on integrity. Until today, he was one of the few politicians known as clean.

Good for Macron and Le Pen which ultimately means good for Macron.
Is there any realistic path for Macron to get past the first round if the PS candidate and Mélenchon are also running? It would be incredible if neither the PS nor Les Républicains make it to the second round.
An_Reathai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 08:38 AM   #112
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

The PS won't make it to the second round, it's almost a lock there (think 90%). They are fighting for the fourth and fifth place (Macron/Le Pen/Fillon are top3).

The PS is not one united block of voters. It's amazing it's been alive for so long tbh. A big part of them (think, 60%+) is more of a Marxist ideology. The remaining is more social democracy oriented. These 2 have nothing in common these days. The party is going to break soon. Hopefully sunday night after Hamon wins.

Macron has a good shot because it's not a boulevard that's open to him in the center, it's now a highway. Hamon is the PS's left wing. Think utopian crap like 32 hours working week, basic income to fight off unemployment, that sort of things. Hamon and Mélenchon share a lot of voters together. That voting pool barely overlaps with Macron. I think a lot of the usual PS voters will go to Macron too. Valls is fairly close to Macron's views on work and economics in general. Not so much on society/secularism/security/terrorism but I think/hope people will focus more on unemployment more than brown people for these elections.

Bad things that could happen to Macron are:
- François Bayrou runs (not likely it seems, think 35%)
- François Fillon is mise en examen very soon and is replaced by Juppé (not very likely he is mise en examen before the elections AND early enough that Juppé has time to run a propper campaign)
- Macron receives too much support from regular politicians and turns into just another campaign (my worst fear)
- Valls wins on sunday night
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 12:46 PM   #113
An_Reathai
newbie
 
An_Reathai's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 40
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Interesting. If Macron somehow manages to squeeze through and actually wins the Presidency - what will happen with the Legislative elections a few weeks later? Do you think it would be some form of cohabitation between Macron and Les Républicains (I'm presuming PS will be very weak) or would Macron somehow be able to put together a list of candidates that support his agenda for the legislative elections (i.e. create a new party)?
I'm Irish - our system is more like the UK parliamentary system (except we do have a written constitution) - but I'm becoming more and more interested (and more and more concerned!) with how other Western countries are handling the rise of populism. I think the world might just cope with a Putin and maybe even with a Putin and a Trump but I'm not sure we'll survive a Putin, a Trump, a Le Pen and what other monstrosities are on the horizon!
An_Reathai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 02:04 PM   #114
Kukraprout
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Kukraprout's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 9,509
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Macron already has created his own movement and has a ton of members. He has started recruiting candidates for the législatives (probably a mix of new faces who signed for his movement and politicians who fled other parties). Lots from the centrist wing of the PS have already joined him. If he's elected president he should do well in the legislatives too. At this point half of the PS will want to join him and give him a majority, if he doesnt have one already.
Kukraprout is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 03:43 PM   #115
daca
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: get by
Posts: 7,908
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

The market seems to like Macron better against Le Pen than Fillon against her. As Fillon has faded so has Le Pen (a bit).

I guess it makes sense that a centrist would do better than a thatcherite conservative asking the left to vote for him. Le Pen might be running to the left of the both of them on economics as far as I can tell though. There'll certainly be plenty of banker bashing.

Last edited by daca; 01-28-2017 at 03:45 PM. Reason: more like (((banker))) bashing when it's fn maybe
daca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 03:55 PM   #116
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Where do you get your odds for different match up?
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 03:59 PM   #117
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

https://www.predictit.org/Market/244...France-in-2017

29% for Le Pen? If I were rich I'd load the truck on "no" lol
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 04:02 PM   #118
GBV
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 1,318
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post

IMO, if Macron was to reach the second round, it is 40% of the time versus Fillon, 60% of the time versus Le Pen. Both of which he crushes EASILY (think 60/40).
Show your working here. I may have missed something but it seems like you are working on the false assumption of independence.
GBV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 04:07 PM   #119
daca
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: get by
Posts: 7,908
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen was 4.8 on betfair about a week ago. She's at 5.1 now. Obviously not that much and it's not a very liquid market, but it seems to be from the Fillon thing.

also, this is Juppé

daca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-28-2017, 04:16 PM   #120
pyatnitski
centurion
 
pyatnitski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 182
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Interesting, I'd have guessed a weak Fillon is better for Le Pen, and that the only way this scandal is bad for her is if it leads to Juppé as the opponent - which currently seems much less likely than just weakening him.
pyatnitski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2017, 06:09 AM   #121
guivre1408
veteran
 
guivre1408's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,631
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by pyatnitski View Post
Interesting, I'd have guessed a weak Fillon is better for Le Pen, and that the only way this scandal is bad for her is if it leads to Juppé as the opponent - which currently seems much less likely than just weakening him.
The scandal is bad for Le Pen, because she can't open her mouth about it. FN is paying their workers by using the same system Fillon is paying his wife.
guivre1408 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2017, 06:53 AM   #122
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Latest Poll (I think it was done after Fillon's latest meeting of yesterday but not 100% certain):

No Bayrou:



With Bayrou:



I'm surprised to see that Bayrou cannibalizes Fillon's votes as much as Macron's.

Second round:

Le Pen vs Fillon: 40/60

Le Pen vs Macron: 35/65

Fillon vs Macron: 42/58

Poll was done on 1032 persons, online. MOE +- 3pts.
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2017, 08:27 AM   #123
An_Reathai
newbie
 
An_Reathai's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 40
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

That opinion poll is incredible.

You have to think that if Macron is as viable as that poll indicates then a decent number of Hamon's 15% will end up voting tactically for Macron and put him into the second round (especially since presumably enough PS voters remember the shambles of 2002). A couple of months ago, the only choice seemed to be Fillon or Le Pen. The left/center might actually win this thing!
An_Reathai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2017, 09:01 AM   #124
daca
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: get by
Posts: 7,908
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

how does the hamon-mélenchon alliance thing they talk about work in practice? would both names be on the ballot but only one of them the candidate?

it'll also be interesting, to put it mildly, to see how the trump admin tries to help le pen and hopefully how badly it backfires.
daca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2017, 09:56 AM   #125
BABARtheELEPHANT
old hand
 
BABARtheELEPHANT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Improving as a human being
Posts: 1,816
Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by An_Reathai View Post
That opinion poll is incredible.

You have to think that if Macron is as viable as that poll indicates then a decent number of Hamon's 15% will end up voting tactically for Macron and put him into the second round (especially since presumably enough PS voters remember the shambles of 2002). A couple of months ago, the only choice seemed to be Fillon or Le Pen. The left/center might actually win this thing!
I'm not sure about that. The actual left is saying Macron is just another rightist politician. Some even brings the (((banker))) argument who worked at (((Rothschild))). It resonates a lot with your typical marxist voter.

For the second round, yeah, most will vote Macron. First round I don't think so. Maybe if some polls show that a Fillon/Le Pen showdown is very close but even then, I don't see it happening...

Quote:
Originally Posted by daca View Post
how does the hamon-mélenchon alliance thing they talk about work in practice? would both names be on the ballot but only one of them the candidate?

it'll also be interesting, to put it mildly, to see how the trump admin tries to help le pen and hopefully how badly it backfires.
One would remove himself off the ballot and cleary asks his followers to vote for x. I doubt Mélenchon would remove himself, the guy thinks he is Tsipras (before kneeling down to the ECB) mixed with Chavez (before bankrupting his country), very dangerous guy.

Hamon vowed that his name will be on the ballot but being a spineless socialist that he is, maybe he will remove himself for the promise to be prime minister in a Mélenchon win.

Hypermind (french predictive market) gives Hamon ~13% chance not to be on the ballot comes the presidential.

Also, note that I'm completely biased in a Macron win. I try to stay objective when explaining what's going but don't take my word for it. Furthermore I thought the Brexit and Trump would never happen.

Last edited by BABARtheELEPHANT; 01-30-2017 at 10:12 AM.
BABARtheELEPHANT is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:55 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online