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Old 11-22-2016, 10:43 AM   #76
chezlaw
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by daca View Post
so le pen is going to promise welfare spending and protection as long you stick it to the muslims, while fillon will be campaigning on budget cuts and scraping regulation, and we expect the left to vote fillon?

should be, erhm, interesting.
Is this as scary as it sounds cos' it sounds very scary.

Can we hope that some of the potential le Pen vote goes to fillon?

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Originally Posted by awval999 View Post
I don't know a lot about French politics. But, I think this all seems like wishcasting. Requesting a Eurotard to explain it to us.
It's more hoping the French aren't far gone enough to vote for le pen whatever the alternative.
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Old 11-22-2016, 11:19 AM   #77
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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So lettme get this straight.

The current President of France, Francois Hollande, the left Socialist as an approval rating of 4%. FOUR. Literally FOUR percent.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/02/...-four-percent/

The probable right conservative nominee Fillon seems like a French Ted Cruz.

And you expect either of these people to defeat Trump.... I mean Marine Le Pen...

I don't know a lot about French politics. But, I think this all seems like wishcasting. Requesting a Eurotard to explain it to us.
It's hard to explain but basically, 75% of all this won't happen. It's like, politics know it, medias know it, everyone knows most of this won't happen. And TBH, I don't care much of all the societal stuff since I don't think they'll go after gays or migrants much. I just want them to liberalize the economy so we can fix the over 10% unemployment we have.

I won't vote for Fillon comes the actual presidential. Macron is my man. He actually brings something fresh to the table.
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Old 11-22-2016, 11:21 AM   #78
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Fillon isn't as bad as how people want him to look like, he's just a pragmatic conservative, but not a racist scumbag. He aim for quite harsh economic decision, and is only against the stupid rules of islam.

A softer Tatcher is probably the closest thing you could compare him with

But be sure Journalists ****tards will compare him to Trump and Hitler, because this is how they will sell all those articles during the campaign
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Old 11-22-2016, 11:29 AM   #79
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

A burkini ban is horrible. The government deciding what people wear at the beach just because they dislike a certain religion
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Old 11-22-2016, 11:37 AM   #80
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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A burkini ban is horrible. The government deciding what people wear at the beach just because they dislike a certain religion
Not wanting to start again the debate, but **** the religions, they are based on ****, banning a wearing that represent a radical view of a certain religion is fine,
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Old 11-22-2016, 12:43 PM   #81
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Is this as scary as it sounds cos' it sounds very scary.

Can we hope that some of the potential le Pen vote goes to fillon?
Difficult to imagine, seems like hoping one year ago that the Trump supporters will eventually switch to Cruz/Rubio/Jeb/Kasich...

Fillon might be rightwing, but as former Prime Minister he's an establishment guy, so les deplorables will go for Le Pen.
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Old 11-22-2016, 12:49 PM   #82
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Not wanting to start again the debate, but **** the religions, they are based on ****, banning a wearing that represent a radical view of a certain religion is fine,
No it isn't. It's wrong in principle and stupid in practice.

In practice such bans feed radicalism, just like banning nazi iconography. The ban only confirms the conspiratorial paranoia that is common to radical points of view.

In practice the best antidote to the stupidity of religion is education.

In principle the government shouldn't be telling people what to believe nor sanctioning those who believe wrong. Banning burkinis is no different in concept than obliging people to go to mass.
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Old 11-22-2016, 12:52 PM   #83
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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ECONOMY

FILLON: Proposes cutting 500,000 public sector jobs over five years and scrapping the 35-hour working week. Allow bosses and private sector workers to negotiate working time directly, within an EU limit of 48 hours a week. Require civil servants to work 39 hours a week.

Increase the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65 years. Cut corporation tax from 33 to 25 percent. Scrap a wealth tax on top earners. Cut public spending by 100 billion euros ($106 billion).

IMMIGRATION

FILLON: Reduce immigration to a "strict minimum" via quotas approved by parliament. Increase deportation of illegal migrants. Link development aid to Africa to commitments by countries to take back illegal immigrants.

SECURITY

FILLON: Strip jihadists who travelled to Syria or Iraq to fight alongside Islamic State of their nationality and bar them from returning to France. Allow municipal police to carry guns. Increase prison capacity by 16,000.

ISLAM

FILLON: Introduce a national ban on full-body "burkini" Islamic swimsuits.

FOREIGN POLICY

FILLON: Develop closer ties with Moscow. Lift sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea peninsula. Bring Russia into the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition, along with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Develop closer ties with Iran. Create a eurozone government to harmonise economic policy. Work towards a "Europe of nations" that "respects French sovereignty."

GAY MARRIAGE

FILLON: Wants to amend a 2013 gay marriage law to prevent same-sex couples jointly adopting. Proposes making it harder for children born to foreign surrogate mothers to obtain French citizenship.

---------------------

So lettme get this straight.

The current President of France, Francois Hollande, the left Socialist as an approval rating of 4%. FOUR. Literally FOUR percent.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/02/...-four-percent/

The probable right conservative nominee Fillon seems like a French Ted Cruz.

And you expect either of these people to defeat Trump.... I mean Marine Le Pen...

I don't know a lot about French politics. But, I think this all seems like wishcasting. Requesting a Eurotard to explain it to us.
this fillon guy seems like a real pos actually. can le pen actually be worse than this?
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Old 11-22-2016, 01:25 PM   #84
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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No it isn't. It's wrong in principle and stupid in practice.

In practice such bans feed radicalism, just like banning nazi iconography. The ban only confirms the conspiratorial paranoia that is common to radical points of view.

In practice the best antidote to the stupidity of religion is education.

In principle the government shouldn't be telling people what to believe nor sanctioning those who believe wrong. Banning burkinis is no different in concept than obliging people to go to mass.
In practice the more people will wear those stupid integrist religious signs, the more people will be tempted to follow them. best decision at first was to not talk about it, so it doesn't get any publicity, now that the damages are done, better ban it than waiting for its growth

In principle I agree school should contain hours every week, like maths or history to explain student what is wrong in every major religion (with scientific and morale arguments), and why they shouldn't believe it.

In principle religion should be forbidden to be taught to children, like alcohol and sex are

We as individuals can't say any negative **** about women now, without the world going ham, but religions can, no problem (Jews women were I live are also forced to wear long sleeves + something on their head)
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Old 11-22-2016, 06:02 PM   #85
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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this fillon guy seems like a real pos actually. can le pen actually be worse than this?
Le pen can definitely be worse than a piece of ****.
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Old 11-23-2016, 03:57 AM   #86
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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In practice the more people will wear those stupid integrist religious signs, the more people will be tempted to follow them. best decision at first was to not talk about it, so it doesn't get any publicity, now that the damages are done, better ban it than waiting for its growth

In principle I agree school should contain hours every week, like maths or history to explain student what is wrong in every major religion (with scientific and morale arguments), and why they shouldn't believe it.

In principle religion should be forbidden to be taught to children, like alcohol and sex are

We as individuals can't say any negative **** about women now, without the world going ham, but religions can, no problem (Jews women were I live are also forced to wear long sleeves + something on their head)
Education doesn't consist in telling people what to think and what not to think. It consists in teaching them how to think and presenting them with credible empirical evidence and showing them how to use it. Children are taught about sex, and in advanced countries, where educational systems are more advanced too, it is not in a negative manner. Not teaching them about sex generally is linked to teaching them religion.

Banning things is the recourse of the pandering politician. Ban flag burning. Ban insulting the king. Ban wearing headscarves. Ban sex.
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Old 11-23-2016, 01:05 PM   #87
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Excuse my ignorance but this fillon guy is a white male Thatcherite that wants to ban islamic attire and gay marriage up against a youthful FEMALE wanting to lower taxes and increase minimum wage !? Corrr popcorn

Last edited by S.K; 11-23-2016 at 01:13 PM.
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Old 11-24-2016, 09:11 AM   #88
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I really hope Emmanuel Macron can pull off a surprise. He's an interesting guy. Young, intelligent, was minister of economy for Hollande but now runs independent. He also wants to deregulate the economy, which is really necessary in France, but not as hard as Fillon. And he's socially liberal.

He's polling at 15% at the moment. If he can position himself as centrist alternative to Fillon and ride the anti traditional parties wave, maybe he can go above 20% and really challenge Fillon.

He'd crush Le Pen in the runoff. Although he's a former investment banker and married to woman 24 years older than him, so I guess there would be many ugly attacks.
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:53 PM   #89
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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He also wants to deregulate the economy, which is really necessary in France, but not as hard as Fillon.
I'm not sure about that. I think Macron wants to change the country entirely, in a much deeper way than Fillon.

Like, 5 years from now, how do you see the cités with Fillon as president versus Macron as president? I think Macron truly cares about the less fortunate and is in it for a true change whereas Fillon is a just slightly more liberal (in the french sense) than your regular conservative (french sense again) politician.

Also, I'm having issues understanding how can someone be economically liberal and socially conservative. For me, the two go together otherwise there is something lacking in your thinking process.
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Old 11-25-2016, 12:20 PM   #90
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

France need to build a wall around the entire country

Spoiler:
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Old 11-28-2016, 05:19 AM   #91
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Fillon assessment

good - liberal economic policies and reforms
bad - christian delusions
ugly - Putin sympathiser
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Old 01-22-2017, 03:36 PM   #92
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

manuel valls seems to be just about done if this holds

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Old 01-22-2017, 04:22 PM   #93
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Valls is gone after the second round. Very good for Macron. I saw him last week live in Quimper. Macron has a very good shot at this.

I went and voted for Montebourg today. Only because that was best for Macron to win the presidential. Oh well, Hamon isn't too bad of a pick too.

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Old 01-23-2017, 12:16 PM   #94
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Macron keeps gaining. The left and the right are both moving away from the center and leaving him a big empty space like they're the red sea and he's Moses. It could be happening! It would be awesome to have a non-depressing electoral surprise for once.
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Old 01-23-2017, 08:39 PM   #95
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

welp (on the ground reporting)

http://www.politico.eu/article/marin...ont-banlieues/
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Old 01-23-2017, 08:50 PM   #96
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Macron keeps gaining. The left and the right are both moving away from the center and leaving him a big empty space like they're the red sea and he's Moses. It could be happening! It would be awesome to have a non-depressing electoral surprise for once.
Interesting-he's on 20% with the other two on 25%/26% respectively.

The smart money has to be on Macron. He's comparatively unknown and increasing name recognition always plays strongly in the run-up. In normal circumstances the party machines would demolish him-but he's drawing crowds and will probably get a decent grassroots operation.
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Old 01-24-2017, 08:07 AM   #97
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

He has got the money behind him and the right people. At this point I figure he is like 40% to go to the second round. This is going to be a glorious day for France and Europe.

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Old 01-24-2017, 09:11 AM   #98
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

French political question:

Le Pen is near automatic to make it to the second round, yes?

Is Le Pen more likely to beat Fillon (conservative) or Macron (rebranded socialist party) in the second round?

Edit: It appears via my Wikipedia opinion polls googling that regardless she would lose a runoff 60/40 to either candidate.

Last edited by awval999; 01-24-2017 at 09:17 AM.
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Old 01-24-2017, 09:55 AM   #99
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Macron's rise has to make it at least possible she's not in the second round. If he can rally enough supporters to get into the 25% range - which seems achievable just shaving votes from the PS and LR - then there must be some outcomes where it's Macron v Fillion in the second round. I do think it's unlikely, however, just because I'd guess to be in the second round Macron needs 3% or so of current Fillon voters, at which point he is the one probably missing out, not Le Pen.

If Hamon wins the PS nomination then there has to be a chance of an alliance between him and Melenchon. Currently that would be around 20% too, though I imagine it would instantly shed voters. Some of those would go to Macron, but it could also cause any voters wavering between Fillon and Le Pen to support whoever they think has the best chance of winning (am assuming there's movement there, but not certain). Rationally the more likely winner is Fillon, but who knows. That's maybe another way to get a non Le Pen second round, but lots of what-ifs there.

Last edited by pyatnitski; 01-24-2017 at 09:58 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old 01-24-2017, 10:01 AM   #100
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Fillon assessment

good - liberal economic policies and reforms
bad - christian delusions
ugly - Putin sympathiser
Lol @Fillon being an economic liberal, he isn't, he's just another old right conservative in economics

Only Macron has a little bit of liberalism in his ideas

Nobody is an automatic 2nd rounder, it's politics, lots of **** are going to come with the official campaign, who's gonna be the best at promising irrational things during the big TV debates ? Who's gonna be A+ at twitter ? Mélenchon is leading the youtube campaign ...

Everybody wants to do that not only Trump, Le Pen or Melenchon.
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