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Old 11-20-2016, 09:50 AM   #51
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by joejoe1337 View Post
There are German elections in 2017 too brah
The day AfD wins seats in the Bundestag is a step towards the fourth horse. Given that they almost got some in 2013...

I mean if Germany can fall victim to the far right again, it's all over.
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Old 11-20-2016, 09:53 AM   #52
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I've not seen much in the way of quantitative data, but I would think it's pretty close to a lock for them to break the 5% threshold this time around.

Would doubt it's enough to unseat Merkel, but who knows, we live in crazy times.
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Old 11-20-2016, 10:11 AM   #53
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
What's everyone pronostic for tonight? I'm thinking Fillon / Sarkozy with Sarkozy ahead and a Fillon wins next week.
Yeah there seems to be a lot of momentum from Juppé towards Fillon, with Sarkozy being stable, so that prognosis seems good.

Question is the general election. Can Fillon unite from left to centre-right against far right Le Pen? From what I hear he is to the right of Juppé, admires Thatcher and opposes same sex marriage. Might be a tough sell for the left...
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Old 11-20-2016, 10:22 AM   #54
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

SARKO FACHO
LE PEUPLE AURA TA PEAU

that's it for my french politics analysis
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Old 11-20-2016, 10:44 AM   #55
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
The day AfD wins seats in the Bundestag is a step towards the fourth horse. Given that they almost got some in 2013...

I mean if Germany can fall victim to the far right again, it's all over.
I had a look at PredictIt and Petry was @.31 to be the next chancellor which is absolutely lol.
Much in that market will depend on who the SPD picks. If they choose Gabriel, they're probably getting rekt and it's gonna be Merkel all the way.

But the AFD getting >5% and therefore getting seats in the Bundestag is pretty much a lock at this point (hovering around 10-13% in most polls).
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Old 11-20-2016, 11:21 AM   #56
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
The day AfD wins seats in the Bundestag is a step towards the fourth horse. Given that they almost got some in 2013...

I mean if Germany can fall victim to the far right again, it's all over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal Checkraise View Post

But the AFD getting >5% and therefore getting seats in the Bundestag is pretty much a lock at this point (hovering around 10-13% in most polls).
Yeah, i don't see how the wouldn't get at least 10%. CDU will probably lose massively to them. With the social democrats (SPD) we dont know yet. If they nominate Gabriel for Chancellor they will be lucky to make it above 20%. If the nominate Schulz and for once move to the left they will do better. But i doubt that will happen.

And since i was wrong with the Brexit and Trump there is a good chance that the AfD will get to the 20% mark.
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Old 11-20-2016, 11:48 AM   #57
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Would doubt it's enough to unseat Merkel, but who knows, we live in crazy times.
If Merkel gets unseated, it will be by a center-left government, so the demise of the "Raute" wouldn't exactly be a sign of a right wing apocalypse.

The only way it would be a sign of a drift to the right would be if there was a party internal coup. That is never going to happen. Literally <1% chance.
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Old 11-20-2016, 11:51 AM   #58
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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If Merkel gets unseated, it will be by a center-left government, so the demise of the "Raute" wouldn't exactly be a sign of a right wing apocalypse.

The only way it would be a sign of a drift to the right would be if there was a party internal coup. That is never going to happen. Literally <1% chance.
I will say that I am largely ignorant, but I was thinking perhaps of some situation where the CDU get hammered, remain the largest party but have to continue in a similar grand coalition. In that situation is it unthinkable that she quietly steps aside?
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Old 11-20-2016, 12:24 PM   #59
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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I will say that I am largely ignorant, but I was thinking perhaps of some situation where the CDU get hammered, remain the largest party but have to continue in a similar grand coalition. In that situation is it unthinkable that she quietly steps aside?
There is no one to replace here, except Schäuble. Our 74 year old treasure minister who helped a big deal with tearing europe apart.
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Old 11-20-2016, 01:31 PM   #60
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I went and voted Juppé. Everyone at my polling station probably realized that I was an UNDERCOVER SOCIALIST because I was pretty much the only one under 50. The massive participation is supposed to mean that more moderates voted, which would hurt Sarkozy, but the crowd I saw looked a lot like Sarkozy voters. It would be awesome if he didnt make it to the second round. And I wouldnt have to vote a second time.
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Old 11-20-2016, 01:46 PM   #61
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

how come the socialists are so unpopular right now? just the terrorist attacks?
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Old 11-20-2016, 01:59 PM   #62
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Yeah, i don't see how the wouldn't get at least 10%. CDU will probably lose massively to them. With the social democrats (SPD) we dont know yet. If they nominate Gabriel for Chancellor they will be lucky to make it above 20%. If the nominate Schulz and for once move to the left they will do better. But i doubt that will happen.

And since i was wrong with the Brexit and Trump there is a good chance that the AfD will get to the 20% mark.
the afd vote in the regions has been pretty interesting this year. in the west it's mostly been from cdu. in the east, where they far strongest, half of it has been from previous non-voters and then equally from all parties with maybe even die linke hit hardest.

i dont think there's any chance they crush the cdu vote.

Last edited by daca; 11-20-2016 at 02:11 PM.
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Old 11-20-2016, 02:05 PM   #63
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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how come the socialists are so unpopular right now? just the terrorist attacks?
Mostly rising unemployment and the fact that Hollande wasted everyone's last 5 years to tackle issues. We've never had a president that's as unpopular than Hollande.
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Old 11-20-2016, 05:02 PM   #64
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Primary results rolling in here:

https://resultats.primaire2016.org/index.html#/total

Looks like its gonna be Fillon vs. Juppe next Sunday.
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Old 11-20-2016, 05:10 PM   #65
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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bravo Daca you get the nasty person of this thread award
bravo Rebel Inc. you get the whiny child of this thread award.
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Old 11-20-2016, 05:31 PM   #66
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Fillon landslide. That's huge, the guy had 9% in the polls 3 weeks ago. Except for his pro Russia & anti gay stance, I like the guy.
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Old 11-20-2016, 05:36 PM   #67
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Fillon landslide. That's huge, the guy had 9% in the polls 3 weeks ago. Except for his pro Russia & anti gay stance, I like the guy.
Does it seem likely he'll get enough support to win the second round easily? Is Sarkozy's 21% more likely to go either way?
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Old 11-20-2016, 05:39 PM   #68
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Sarkozy conceded and endorsed Fillon as well, so Juppe seems done.
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Old 11-20-2016, 06:09 PM   #69
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Juppé is 100% done. Basically he was the left of his party, Fillon the center, and Sarkozy the right. Sarkozy voters are absolutely going to Fillon. And for those like me who went to that primary and voted Juppé just to block Sarkozy it's mission accomplished, we wont vote in the second round.

I just realized that Juppé is the French JEB!: they both put exclamation point in their logo to try to hide how bland they are.
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Old 11-20-2016, 06:25 PM   #70
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts



lol sarko

off to jail now
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Old 11-20-2016, 06:29 PM   #71
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

doesnt matter had bruni
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Old 11-20-2016, 06:50 PM   #72
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Trump too. Too bad we wont see the awkward state dinners where she banged all the presidents in the room.
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Old 11-22-2016, 08:48 AM   #73
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

lol
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Old 11-22-2016, 09:58 AM   #74
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

so le pen is going to promise welfare spending and protection as long you stick it to the muslims, while fillon will be campaigning on budget cuts and scraping regulation, and we expect the left to vote fillon?

should be, erhm, interesting.
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Old 11-22-2016, 10:08 AM   #75
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

ECONOMY

FILLON: Proposes cutting 500,000 public sector jobs over five years and scrapping the 35-hour working week. Allow bosses and private sector workers to negotiate working time directly, within an EU limit of 48 hours a week. Require civil servants to work 39 hours a week.

Increase the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65 years. Cut corporation tax from 33 to 25 percent. Scrap a wealth tax on top earners. Cut public spending by 100 billion euros ($106 billion).

IMMIGRATION

FILLON: Reduce immigration to a "strict minimum" via quotas approved by parliament. Increase deportation of illegal migrants. Link development aid to Africa to commitments by countries to take back illegal immigrants.

SECURITY

FILLON: Strip jihadists who travelled to Syria or Iraq to fight alongside Islamic State of their nationality and bar them from returning to France. Allow municipal police to carry guns. Increase prison capacity by 16,000.

ISLAM

FILLON: Introduce a national ban on full-body "burkini" Islamic swimsuits.

FOREIGN POLICY

FILLON: Develop closer ties with Moscow. Lift sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea peninsula. Bring Russia into the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition, along with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Develop closer ties with Iran. Create a eurozone government to harmonise economic policy. Work towards a "Europe of nations" that "respects French sovereignty."

GAY MARRIAGE

FILLON: Wants to amend a 2013 gay marriage law to prevent same-sex couples jointly adopting. Proposes making it harder for children born to foreign surrogate mothers to obtain French citizenship.

---------------------

So lettme get this straight.

The current President of France, Francois Hollande, the left Socialist as an approval rating of 4%. FOUR. Literally FOUR percent.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/02/...-four-percent/

The probable right conservative nominee Fillon seems like a French Ted Cruz.

And you expect either of these people to defeat Trump.... I mean Marine Le Pen...

I don't know a lot about French politics. But, I think this all seems like wishcasting. Requesting a Eurotard to explain it to us.
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