Can you lay out your thought process behind that assertion? I don't think this is trivial at all.

Let's say you re-organize those jobs from 35h to 40h-max weeks, you now end up with 20% unemployment instead of 10%, unless there is additional job growth for some reason (why?). That doesn't seem like an improvement re: cohesion.

ya I mean, one candidate is pretty much a nazi, but the other guy has weird wife? I guess she is ugly or something I dunno? so ya, basically the same thing.

Lol.

What he probably means is that there are two groups: those who have a job with a lot of advantages that go with that job (low hours, high security because of the high costs of firing people, a generous vacation system, well paid overtime...), and the people who have a tough time getting a new one because if a company hires someone they know that they can't afford to make a mistake/ have it not work out given the costs of firing/having the employee on the payroll.

I'm not sure how much this cause and effect relation is true (maybe it's more a mismatch between training and types of jobs available but in a larger scale than other economies) because I haven't read any research on the subject but intuitively it makes a lot of sense.

Le Pen's chances come not from massive polling error, but because of the fact that the electorate changes dramatically when it gets heads-up. US polling had Sanders doing better than Clinton in the General Election, though I happen to think Sanders would likely do worse had he actually won the nomination.

Had the US primary elections been run the same way as the first round, you would have similar results, with the center left Clinton with a comfortable plurality, the right authoritarian Trump in 2nd and the leftist Sanders in third. Bottom line, just because the 1st round polling proved accurate doesn't mean the second round hypothetical polling won't change dramatically now that the first round is over.

south-east = rich olds and/or racists because of said immigration

combined with low turn-out from immigrants, and immigrants actually not necessarily voting against Le Pen/Fillon

That's not related to 35h weeks, you are talking about other benefits. The most obvious effect of increasing working hours are that fewer workers are needed to get the same work done. ie unemployment would be expected to increase, making it harder to get a job.

Where does he say anything about increasing hours?

Learn to google - you can get a comprehensive answer in ten seconds.

Huh? I was originally replying to jalfrezis post about the 35h week being bad for cohesion.

From the context it seems safe to conclude that he wasn't talking about 35h weeks being too long, so he was quite clearly suggesting longer working weeks.

If you are going to stalk me, at least make your silly juvenile ad hominems make some kind of sense.

Like the other poster I assumed the context showed that people in jobs could not get them because of the protection and benefits afforded the employed and thus there is a big problem with cohesion.

He does not say at any point they should improves cohesion by increasing the work week.

Obviously I don't know for sure what jalfrezi wanted to express, maybe he can chime in. But imo it would be quite misleading to mention the 35h week in that sentence if you don't believe it is part of the problem and should be changed.

Maybe it's just there as a random example for general benefits / worker-protections, and in that case it is worth pointing out that getting rid of the 35h cap specifically may actually have the opposite effect on unemployment and cohesion than you intended. If there was some different thought process behind mentioning the 35h week then I'd be curios to hear about it, that's why I asked about his reasoning.

Macron's actual policy is, unsurprisingly, a grab bag of positions. He talks about how young people might want to work more as they're young, whereas, for older people, they might only be working for even fewer hours (30 or 32).

What he actually proposes, though, is for the professional branch agreements (rules for workers in a particular sector of activity) to be able to have their own working time agreements. I don't know enough about these professional branches and how they work to know what that will mean in practice, though I suspect it'll mean longer hours for the most part.

Le Pen wouldn't allow any agreement to go above 35 hours.

Is there any reason to suppose that he might transcend his corporate origins in banking?
It seems to me guys like him are just establishment conservatives/career politicians who find a niche talking in touchy-feely centre-left terms. They talk centre-left, govern right and think green.

Maybe France is different but this sounds like a story I've heard too many times already.

How accurate were the 1st round polls in the end?

Very. Most candidates within a point of the polling average. Think Hamon underperformed by a few points.

pfft americans ...

Macron spot on
Le Pen underperformed polls by 1%
Fillon and Mélenchon overperformed by 0.5%
Hamon under by 1%

I think social cohesion is about more than achieving 'full' employment (5% unemployment in the UK). As automation gathers pace and sectors of the population that have rarely experienced it begin to suffer from unemployment, both sides of the employed/unemployed divide will increasingly need to feel that the other side isn't excessively rewarded.

I fear that's what Macron will do. Certainly if by govern right you understand it as market orientated neo-liberalism, though filtered through France's existing social-security state and (hopefully) without the 'austerity' twist of using cutbacks to target the poorest. He does seem genuine about environmental concerns in his language, but the proof will be in the pudding.

There's also the issue of what the Assemblé will look like and how that will impact his programme, but my knowledge of French politics and constitution just isn't good enough to know what a likely make up will be if he wins, and how exactly that constrains his presidency.

strange how these things keep happening


https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/856929949932019712

Oh look, posters on this site are spreading fake news from 4chan, how wonderful.


https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/statu...71608374366209

Where did anyone 'spread fake news' about Macron sexing his wife's daughter on here?

It's France, his approval rating would probably go up if that were true.