Congrats France on the good outcome so far (among the possibilities, at least). Have the vote share percentages been tallied? I can't seem to find them on the US news sites.

Votes are still being counted. The official partial results are here: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/p...e-2017/FE.html

News sites are giving projections that are slightly different. They expect Macron to be higher because there are more votes to count in large cities.

When was the last time somebody finished 2nd in the popular vote in round 1 and won the Presidency in a round 2 blowout?

For all those nay-saying about it being Clinton/Trump all over again, remember that the French runoff is decided by popular vote, which Clinton won by 2 points.

Not a blowout, but Chirac came 2nd in r1 in 1995 and won.

Edit: Wiki tells me that Mitterrand did the same in 1981

Reminder that Macron is MORE THAN TWENTY POINTS ahead of Le Pen in second round polls, and polls were amazingly accurate in the first round. None of the candidates who were eliminated is supporting her. It's over, Macron won.

After the US election, I'm not gonna stop sweating this election until I cash out and rub my winnings on my titties.

What are your bets trolly?

In my city (Rennes), Macron did 31, Mélenchette 25% (****ing Rennes2 ruining it), fillon distant third at 13 and le pen very distant at 6.70%.

Some money on Macron, some against Le Pen --which amounts to the same thing at this point.

Predictit is .85 M, .18 LP at the moment.

oh it's done then, well played.

So Macron started dating his 64 yr old wife when he was 15 and she was 40? they both have some form of mental illness, seems to be a common theme among lefties. #imwithher

Le Pen not even reaching 5% in Paris warms my heart

she was his teacher

I wouldn't describe a Blairite banker as "left-wing".

In practice people like him talk centre-left and govern centre-right (at best).

The literal WOAT is president of USA#1 and now a nazi chick is poised to become president of France. Makes me ****ing sick what this world has come to, just a sad time to be alive.

The nazi chick almost certainly won't become president. She's a country mile behind in the polls.

The polls might be wrong-but it would be the biggest polling f***-up in living memory.

Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...rump-ever-was/

The mere belief the polls and people like 538 insist she has no chance actually improves her odds of winning.

Think those are assuming some things I would not but really the polls need to die--they impact races.

Polls are just a way of measuring things. Removing them leaves us with less information, not more. More education would allow people to learn more about polls and what they can and can not reliably tell us. People need to learn that polls are just a snapshot in time, that they have margins of error, and that one poll taken out of context is normally pretty useless, but when they are consolidated they can be very useful.

It's not the pollsters fault that people are uneducated about these things. The media is often very irresponsible with polling numbers and data, for example shining a spotlight on outliers in order to get a strong reaction from viewers. This isn't the fault of polls though, these are failures of the media and of the viewers.

Humans have an innate tendency to back winners, which is almost certainly a part of the Trump phenomenon. I agree there's def a strong case to be made that this kind of racehorse-style polling hurts democracy and should be stopped, but there's a huge market for it and I have no idea how you outlaw polling without brushing up against free speech protections.

I'm hoping press pushes brexit + trump instead of victory lap stories for Macron, so the French make sure to hit the polls again

Le Pen's only shot seems to be massive polling error plus low voter turnout

[Insert quote from Art of the Deal saying you can only con people for a certain amount of time before they catch on]

I agree that Trump came off as a winner while Hillary didn't, and that was appealing to lots of people. Still waiting for the 96% of his voters (see WaPo poll in the Trump thread) to catch on though.

Obviously American and French election mechanics are identical.

Large scale terrorist attack.

In my city (South east)

Le Pen 29
Fillon 21
Meluche/Macron 19
Hamon 4

...