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Old 11-10-2016, 05:18 PM   #26
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
Your post doesn't make any sense.

What about continental European countries that are Anglo-Saxon?
Sorry, conflated economic term referring to Brits and their colonists. To be more clear, imo politics in the U.K. and U.S. are inherently different from continental Europe because of our geographic isolation.
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Old 11-10-2016, 05:29 PM   #27
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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in america quotation marks are needed. the 1st amendment protects free speech, even if you say really mean things. im jewish but i am quite happy that in our society people are free to call me a **** or deny the holocaust. long live the 1st amendment.
This will be pointed out to you every time you will have a political discussion with a foreigner in the foreseeable future, especially if you try to lecture them on how to handle toxic idiocy: YOU ELECTED DONALD TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT.
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Old 11-11-2016, 11:21 AM   #28
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Trump will put a stop to this. US has always defended Europe against its fascist impulses.
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Old 11-12-2016, 11:13 AM   #29
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

its too bad no one was around to defend the US against its own fascist impulses

as for France, the french medias not being the complete cesspool of the anglosphere medias should be helpful in making Brexit/Trump type **** ups more of a challenge
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Old 11-12-2016, 11:26 AM   #30
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I don't know how French elections work so would have to read up some more.

I talked about this in the Betting on Elections thread, but look for strong public opinion and/or polls that many people in the country want change in their lives, unhappy with how the system is run, unhappy with the direction the country is going in etc.

Brexit and Trump happened because most people in the country wanted change from failed "establishment" politicians, and the other side couldn't give convincing arguments that the way things currently were was ok for people.
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Old 11-12-2016, 11:39 AM   #31
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by kahlgar View Post
its too bad no one was around to defend the US against its own fascist impulses

as for France, the french medias not being the complete cesspool of the anglosphere medias should be helpful in making Brexit/Trump type **** ups more of a challenge
Calling people racists, bigots, xenophobes etc. is a failed tactic. Remainers called those who wanted Brexit those things. Clinton called Trump supporters those things. It didn't work and never will work. If anything, it made people more likely to vote for Brexit and Trump.
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Old 11-12-2016, 12:10 PM   #32
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

^ i agree that it is a bad electoral tactic but that doesn't make it any less true

fascism defining characteristics : strong nationalism, sexism, identifying enemies/scapegoats, supremacy of the military, anti intellectualism, disdain for human rights, controlled mass media and elections, government and religion being intertwined.

Trump is lacking on the religion front (Pence tho) and controlling medias/elections seem quite wrong but in every other respect this is classic fascism
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Old 11-12-2016, 12:38 PM   #33
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by MultiTabling View Post
I don't know how French elections work so would have to read up some more.

I talked about this in the Betting on Elections thread, but look for strong public opinion and/or polls that many people in the country want change in their lives, unhappy with how the system is run, unhappy with the direction the country is going in etc.

Brexit and Trump happened because most people in the country wanted change from failed "establishment" politicians, and the other side couldn't give convincing arguments that the way things currently were was ok for people.
the french are pretty much chronically pessimistic afaict
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Old 11-12-2016, 01:01 PM   #34
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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the french are pretty much chronically pessimistic afaict
Does that mean they would vote for Le Pen?
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Old 11-12-2016, 01:42 PM   #35
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
Lol France
Remember the good old days when we could all do that

Now I'm hoping that France remembers how much it dislikes the USA and the UK so defines itself as different and votes sane.
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Old 11-12-2016, 01:54 PM   #36
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Does that mean they would vote for Le Pen?
well, some of them will.

maybe the trump/brexit "we'll be great again" stuff doesnt work as well when everyone thinks things will always be merde. idunno
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Old 11-12-2016, 02:00 PM   #37
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

i am afraid that "stuff is happening" and it is impossible that it will just die off. somehow it has to realize itself, and we can see that through brexit, trump, nationalist movements in europe, and even on the internet.

the question to me is just how will all of this play out? how will this "energy" release itself?
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Old 11-12-2016, 02:28 PM   #38
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

People have been voting in le pen types in places nobody expected lately. Silly to underestimate in any country right now.
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Old 11-12-2016, 11:39 PM   #39
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen is mightier than the Juppe!
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Old 11-12-2016, 11:47 PM   #40
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Le Pen is mightier than the Juppe!
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Old 11-16-2016, 01:51 PM   #41
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

So, polls are getting very close for the republican primary, which is supposed to determine the election. A pollster noted that 58% of those who said they would certainly vote are not aware that it's next sunday. No idea wtf is going to happen, posting the current predictwise numbers for future lols:
http://predictwise.com/politics/french-politics
OutcomePredictWiseDerived Betfair PriceBetfair BackBetfair LayPartyDerived Hypermind Price
Alain Juppe35%$ 0.3822.542.7The Republicans$ 0.360
Marine Le Pen20%$ 0.2703.653.75National Front$ 0.170
Francois Fillon17%$ 0.15966.6The Republicans$ 0.210
Emmanuel Macron10%$ 0.0621419Independent$ 0.165
Nicolas Sarkozy8%$ 0.10899.6The Republicans$ 0.070
Manuel Valls3%$ 0.0223660Socialist$ 0.035
Francois Hollande2%$ 0.0204265Socialist$ 0.035
Francois Bayrou1%$ 0.002400750Democratic Movement$ 0.010
Jean-Luc Melenchon1%$ 0.004200290Left Party$ 0.025
Arnaud Montebourg1%$ 0.01250220Socialist$ 0.015
Other1%    $ 0.025
Martine Aubry0%$ 0.002400750Socialist$ 0.005

A month ago the top contenders were (still according to predictwise):
Quote:
- Alain Juppe 53% The Republicans
- Nicolas Sarkozy 16% The Republicans
- Marine Le Pen 13% National Front
- Francois Hollande 8% Socialist
The race is not as stable and boring as I hoped.
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Old 11-16-2016, 02:32 PM   #42
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Yeah, I agree with the primaries polls being garbage. We've got no idea who is going to vote.

I love Sarkozy at 8%, like Macron at 10%. I would bet Fillon at anything under 15%. Le Pen at 20% is a joke. Not a chance she wins, even against someone like Hollande.
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Old 11-16-2016, 02:50 PM   #43
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
Yeah, I agree with the primaries polls being garbage. We've got no idea who is going to vote.

I love Sarkozy at 8%, like Macron at 10%. I would bet Fillon at anything under 15%. Le Pen at 20% is a joke. Not a chance she wins, even against someone like Hollande.
Read a lot of posts like this recently.
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Old 11-17-2016, 11:45 AM   #44
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by kahlgar View Post
its too bad no one was around to defend the US against its own fascist impulses
The real delusion is that this is anything new in the US. This is the country made mighty by slavery and segregation and fighting communism. Hell, the last third party candidate to win a state in a US presidential election was George Wallace.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:33 AM   #45
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

On the day of the first round of the conservative primary, the election might already have its first big surprise. In the latest poll, conservative centrist Alain Juppé, everbody's favorite for the presidency just a couple weeks ago, has been overtaken by François Fillon, who performed well in the 3 debates:

Fillon 30%
Juppé 29%
Sarkozy 29%

Top 2 will face heads up next Sunday. Seems like it will be a real squeaker, and Juppé might be finished before the election really starts. Would be a big shock, but Fillon would be a big favorite against Sarkozy in the 2nd round of the primary, so the fundamentals of the election wouldn't change that much.

Le Pen's biggest (only?) chance is against Sarkozy, because he is so hated by the left and centrist voters that they might stay at home in a runoff, and Le Pen's base > Sarkozy's base
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:41 AM   #46
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by S.K View Post
Le Pen is mightier than the Juppe!
Post of the thread

Le Pen is <2/1 with a lot of UK Bookies
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Old 11-20-2016, 09:17 AM   #47
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen is the third horse of the apocalypse when it comes to right-wing populism. Ugh.
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Old 11-20-2016, 09:31 AM   #48
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Putin/Trump being #1/#2?
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Old 11-20-2016, 09:31 AM   #49
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Le Pen is the third horse of the apocalypse when it comes to right-wing populism. Ugh.
There are German elections in 2017 too brah
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Old 11-20-2016, 09:37 AM   #50
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

What's everyone pronostic for tonight? I'm thinking Fillon / Sarkozy with Sarkozy ahead and a Fillon wins next week.
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