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You still actually believe that telling people Melenchon is an anti-establishment candidate will put them off him? Did it never occur to you that people who are thinking about voting for a communist don't want a moderate?
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A part of his current support would never have considered voting for a communist a few months ago. I think there's a chance they reconsider. Not talking about his original supporters obviously.
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That said, the value here seems to be on fading Le Pen and Fillion. I can't see any justification for 5.2 giving the enormous hurdle she faces in getting to the second round. The polls would have to be further out than any election in human memory. It could still happen due to effect I mentioned above but it would have to be a much stronger bias than in any previous case.
Fillon looks like a dead-in-the water establishment dinosaur now, I can't see any justification for his price of 4.2.
Not so sure about Fillon. Some people dont care that he is a corrupt establishment dinosaur and will vote for him for practical reasons (thinking they'll pay less taxes with him for example), or because they always vote for the same party. His polling numbers never got really low.
I agree about Le Pen. Her only winnable duel is against Fillon, and she needs polls to underestimate him in the first round and underestimate her in the second. I took a look at Nate Silver's tweets and besides his worries about herding he seems to agree too: