https://twitter.com/opinionway/statu...10964508520449

amazing

Where's the evidence for this claim? Labour bedrock support is thought to be about 25% and there's no reason to think Tory bedrock support is any less. You do know of the existence of large numbers of working class people, often raised in council properties, who are die-hard Tories because they see it as an escape from their roots?

As a man of the left, the problem I have with many of its proponents is an unwillingness to confront certain realities about its own 'natural' supporters eg the fat that many working class Labour voters are racist is something that socialists hand wave away, unable to reconcile it with their romanticised view of the working class.

Excellent illustration of my point.

You have to be brainwashed by the media to believe that the Tories will allow you to escape from poverty. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary, social mobility is at an all-time low.

And yeah there's an element of racism among the working classes, but a 24/7 news feed dominated by immigration and terrorism is dramatically amplifying that problem. Additionally you have to believe that the Tories provide some kind of solution to those problems when immigration and radicalization has risen exponentially under their watch.

Plenty of non-brainwashed council-house tenants bought their home under Tory right-to-buy law and later sold it for a large profit. I don't see the influence of the media there.

Believe me, it's a lot more than an 'element' of racism. You can forget the oft-quoted anti-racism of the Sydney Street siege of previous generations. The few descendants of cockneys that remain in the East End of London in general are very antagonistic towards the large Bangladeshi community there.


EDIT: Last few posts should be moved to the UK Politics thread

Last Week Tonight took on the French election:



Didn't think they would even have a show since it's Easter.

3 new polls today:

http://www.ouest-france.fr/elections...-coude-4935235

Elabe:
EM 24
MLP 23
FF 19.5
JLM 18

Ifop:
EM 23
MLP 22.5
FF 19.5
JLM 19.5

it's all good, one week to go

How are your polls so consistent? I'm not a stats guy, but I'd be worried about what FiveThirtyEight calls "herding." It shouldn't be the case that every poll has each candidate consistently within their own little 3 point window.

French pollsters probably all know one another and apply very similar recipes. A systematic error is definitely possible imo.

I'm really not confident in Macron anymore. I had spent the last few months telling Melenchon enthusiasts that their candidate had no chance and that Macron was the only way to make their vote count, that's not true anymore. On the other hand Melenchon could very well collapse when people become aware of his less moderate positions. I have no idea which way it will go and I wish the election was yesterday.

Yes definitely possible herding.

I'm not too familiar with French polls, but do you think Le Pen's poll numbers are understated? Similar to Brexit and Trump - many people weren't willing to state their true opinion to pollsters.

Become aware when? The election is only days away!
At this stage, it's probably no longer about persuading people as much as making sure you get your vote out. I still wouldn't rule Fillon out. His 19% in the polls are probably very very committed to him at this stage and will show up. Would be less confident about Macron's supporters.
This is going to be some sweat.

Why do French people hate Hollande ?

It's too late now. He has been the cute, smart, eloquent intellectual with interesting ideas for weeks now. Remember Macron and Mélenchon complicity during the first debate? He's been underrated by everyone (candidates, medias, pundits) for too long.

I think all scenarios are possible between the 4 candidates. I think Fillon will overperform but what do I know...

I have zero clue about French people and French politics. However, with Brexit and Trump, poll averages matched the election results in the last week.

Trump's victory and poll performance can't really say too much here, because a lot of what happened in the months leading up to the election was people claiming they would vote third party. And even then it was only like 10% of the electorate making such claims. Afaik, there were no head to head polls that showed HRC winning with 12+ margins like the polls show against Le Pen.

The demographics are obviously very different though. No US President in my lifetime will ever have a 4% approval rating like Hollande does. So Cliffs Notes: I have no ****ing idea.

Pollsters underestimated Le Pen by a lot in 2002, but they have learned from it and there's no reason to believe they're doing the same mistake again.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presi...8_4854003.html

holy **** google translate has improved a lot

Pollsters have two priorities 1) overhype Macron and 2) downplay the Asselineau vote(Frexit)(he scores huge in basically any online poll while usual pollsters have him at ~0.5%)

I'm guessing Macron will do closer to 15% than 25% and Asselineau closer to 10 than 0.

Smart money is on Fillon/Le Pen in the 2nd round imo

I intercepted secret communications between lizard people and illuminati, they said that Asselineau is actually polling at more than 70% but they're going to fix the election results and give him around 1%. Watch out for that.

Bookmakers have Asselineau shorter than Hamon, they too talk to lizard peoples apparently.

BREAKING: Lizard peoples cracked the youtubes

http://www.numerama.com/politique/24...oit-hamon.html

You still actually believe that telling people Melenchon is an anti-establishment candidate will put them off him? Did it never occur to you that people who are thinking about voting for a communist don't want a moderate?

It will be interesting to see what happens with Melenchon's numbers.

He is currently 10.5 at betfair? That's a value bet IMHO. If the polls are accurate that could be justified on the basis of standard error.

There is a possibility, and it is just a possibility, that he will benefit from voters who aren't showing up in samples the way far right voters did in the UK and in the US. Melenchon voters, like the far right, are very mistrustful of the establishment almost by definition and this may extend to not wanting to participate in offifcial surveys.

The interesting thing with probabiility theory is that you only need a small probability of something like this happening to have a value bet. I'd put Melenchon's chances at around 12.5% making a fair bet 8.0.

That said, the value here seems to be on fading Le Pen and Fillion. I can't see any justification for 5.2 giving the enormous hurdle she faces in getting to the second round. The polls would have to be further out than any election in human memory. It could still happen due to effect I mentioned above but it would have to be a much stronger bias than in any previous case.
Fillon looks like a dead-in-the water establishment dinosaur now, I can't see any justification for his price of 4.2.

careful andre, you know too much, they are coming for you next

first poll of the day (presitrack des échos / orpi):

Macron 23 (+1)
Lepen 22 (=)
Fillon 20 (-1)
Mélenchette 19 (+1)






Asselineau 1 (=)

They already came, we had sex.

Any chance Le Pen doesn't make it to the 2nd round?

yes