I feel like this right-wing populist uprising narrative might be a bit exaggerated. Brexit and the US election were basically two coin flips that went the wrong way yet people seemed to think it was inevitable that the Dutch and French elections would follow the same story arc.

Oh Trolly, don't get me wrong. Le Pen has never had more than 10% chance to win the presidency and I agree it is way overblown. But still, she is likely to win the first round and that sucks.

They were going to win until the world started watching trump. We saved europe again, you're all welcome.

Just because you saw Trevor Noah say it doesn't make it true.

Yeah I mean I don't have survey data to prove it but I strongly suspect that seeing what an abject disaster Trump has been for USA#1 two months in convinced many who were leaning fascism to back away and wonder wtf they were thinking

Much as I dislike the woman, comparisons between Trump and Le Pen are fatuous. She is clearly an intelligent person who successfully rebranded her party. She appeals to many people and her arguments do not lack sophistication or logic.

Trump is an orange buffoon. He would be far-fetched as a comedic creation, let alone an actual person.

In fairness, I think most people are suggesting that they are similar on policy positions & attitudes rather than on personality & intelligence.

bump

no

This may very well be true. I get the feel around here that Le Pen isn't going to win. Granted, I've only stayed in three cities here (Nice, Lyon, Paris) but I haven't seen any outward showing of support for Le Pen and anybody who I ask about it immediately talks about how much they hate her. There's nothing scientific about this. It's nothing more than a feeling.

Also the overwhelming majority of people I've run into think that America is a country of idiots for electing Trump. My only real counter is that he lost the popular vote which immediately leads into me having to explain the continued existence of the EC despite how archaic and pointless it now is. It appears that even after I explain it thoroughly, it doesn't make sense to anybody.

The debate is hard to watch. Le Pen > Fillon = Melenchon > Hamon >> Macron. Pretty much the opposite of my voting preferences. Hopefully it doesnt really matter.

i have it as Fillon > Hamon > Le Pen > Melenchon > Macron

which is bad

As far as this debate i got

Fillon/Hamon>>Melenchon/Le Pen>>Macron

yes

Fillon, Melenchon and Le Pen seemed pretty much who you thought they were. I think your opinion of their performance would be largely down to how much you liked ideas of theirs which were already largely known before the debate.

Personally I like Melenchon. I'm certainly far from agreeing with him on a fair few things, but he talks well and forthrightly, always clearly states where his positions are coming from with regards his basic principles and often accepts painful consequences of them. I think he and Hamon, who sometimes spoke well but who I thought got shut out of a few debates a bit too easily, aren't going to make much of a real impact on the campaign.

I didn't pay attention throughout the whole thing but I don't think Fillon's affairs were mentioned directly, and that can only help him - though it's far from meaning they're forgotten. He seemed a bit nervous at the start, but that soon went and he was his usual slightly condescending authoritative self.

It's clear Le Pen is going for the Trump tactic in so far as every time she could she brought things back to the EU, Islam, terrorists or some other dark force being behind the ills of the French, and that they need to start being great again. Of course she's a much better and coherent talker than the orange one, and her programme has only a thematic similarity to his, but it's that similarity she'll try and emphasise. At one point she said that Trump and Brexit were great.

I didn't think Macron did badly, but I don't think he did too well either. Too often it was clear his answers were essentially "I agree with this part of that answer, this part of another answer, and that part of a third" - i.e. exactly what everyone attacks him for being. His two meta themes were that of a profound reform of French politics and greater pragmatism in particular situations. Those aren't, I suppose, necessarily opposed, but they aren't easy bedfellows either. He linked his detail to the pragmatism but didn't as often or easily made the link between the profound reform and actual measures. He also seemed the least at ease, but not terribly so and it's partly his natural style. He was very animated and seemingly genuinely annoyed in attacking Le Pen at one point.

After I typed all that I saw on BFM that apparently 29% of their voters thought Macron the most convincing. I remember from the Republicain primaries the after debate polls seemed to always give Juppé the edge, they seemed to just follow the presidential polls, so not sure how much credence to give. Am certainly not claiming that my impressions match those of the French public either, though..

One other thing - I was talking with a few people before the debate and their fear was that all the non Le Pen candidates would use the debate to primarily attack Macron, as it's from him that they all need the votes to get to the second round. That would both disproportionately harm Macron and let Le Pen off lightly.

That seemed a sensible fear, but I don't think came to pass. He was attacked by most of the others a few of times, but so were Le Pen, Hamon and Melenchon (that I can remember).

one thing i've been wondering, what are the key differences between Hamon and Mélenchon that make it impossible for them to form an alliance from the left? because from an outsider's point of view, le pen/macron/fillon is a really depressing top 3. si j'étais français, i don't think i'd even bother voting in the 2nd round

bias in your sample here (I know you admitted your hunch is not scientific at all) is that these are the french that you as a foreigner are encountering. I'd say foreigners in the USA visiting the tourist spots (nyc, sf, la, chicago) would have gotten the same vibe about trump as you've gotten on Le Pen. Have you been visiting the backwoods or sticking to more cosmopolitan areas?

Their ego. So we are safe on that point.

Debate: I dozed after a hour or so. These things are boring. I thought Melenchon >> Macron > everyone else with Fillon last.

Melenchon seemed friendly which is a feat for him. Macron had a lot to lose and he managed to do ok.

Fillon was the one who had to do pull something and he didn't.

Macron was the most convincing according to two polls

Elabe:
Macron 29%
Melenchon 20%
Fillon 19%
Le Pen 19%
Hamon 11%

OpinionWay:
Macron 25%
Fillon 19%
Le Pen 19%
Melenchon 15%
Hamon 10%

Unexpected but nice. In the second poll 13% of responders thought that none of the 5 candidates was the most convincing of the 5 candidates. lol people.

Biggest Hamon / Melenchon argument was about foreign policy. Hamon seemed a stickler for pretty traditional French 'humanitarian' intervention, talked about how awful Russia were etc. Melenchon talked a lot about new international alliances, immediate peace talks and renegotiations of borders - the latter Hamon clearly thought was ridiculous.

Melenchon isn't a fan of universal revenue, and is far more ready to leave the EU - though Hamon also isn't a straightforward fan of it. I think Barbar got the real point with ego, though, in that they could surely have concluded a joint programme if they wanted to.

macron marrying a pensioner to help with the senior citizen vote looks genius. there'll be a lot of them, especially women, up for grabs if fillon doesnt make it and they all vote

Today was a staple in presidential elections aka the speech in front of the association of french mayors. Macron went there and got booed while Melenchon, Le Pen and Fillon sent the help.

But then Asselineau took the stage and killed it, as usual.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrsEypgK2tk&t=40s

lol@0.5%, pollsters gonna pollster.

So is this ****rag gonna win or no

No doubt bias in my sample size. In my experience, people who speak English as a second language at a decent level tend to be more liberal because of their education level. English also tends to be better spoken in large cities.

A significant portion of my interaction with locals in Paris has been with French Algerians as they run security of a building near where I'm staying and they have pretty obvious reasons for despising Le Pen.

I saw the map for people who voted for Le Pen in 2012 and was pretty surprised at the support along the Riviera. The immigrant population in Nice was pretty large in the city itself (lot of rich people in the suburbs of Nice though). I thought it would be more liberal but the southeast came out big for Front National.

either way a ****rag is gonna win imo