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Old 11-10-2016, 10:49 AM   #1
Rebel inc.
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Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Many bookies panicked and dropped odds immediately after paying out for Trump.

But I expect as usual this will change with time, with more money going on Juppe.

You could get 6 on either Le Pen or Sarkozy couple of days back, I have seen low and actual 3 on Le Pen today.

Your thoughts.
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Old 11-10-2016, 11:21 AM   #2
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

i believe france has a parlimentarian coalition system? which means its easier for scheming globalist progressives to thwart the will of the people. you could get 40% le pen, 30% idiot 1, 30% idiot 2, and then the idiots form a coalition and take power leaving le pen out.
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Old 11-10-2016, 11:44 AM   #3
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

The presidential Primary for Jupe's party is on in 10 days. His main rival is Sarkozy. The Socialists have destroyed their political capital with their base so look unlikely to feature in any 2-horse run off.

Most likely race is Jupe vs Le Pen with Jupe up by 30 points in the (lol) polls for that particular matchup.
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Old 11-10-2016, 11:58 AM   #4
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

I give Le Pen a sub 10% of winning. We have a 2 rounds election with clear instructions from the losing candidates on who to vote for. Never a losing candidate has called for his voters to vote Le Pen for the second round. That's a fairly big glass ceiling. For example, JM Le Pen in 2002 did 4.8M votes and only increased to 5.2M the second round.

She will most likely pass the first round tho. What are the odds on that?

Last edited by BABARtheELEPHANT; 11-10-2016 at 12:05 PM.
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Old 11-10-2016, 12:05 PM   #5
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Lol France
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Old 11-10-2016, 12:07 PM   #6
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brussels Sprout View Post
The presidential Primary for Jupe's party is on in 10 days. His main rival is Sarkozy. The Socialists have destroyed their political capital with their base so look unlikely to feature in any 2-horse run off.

Most likely race is Jupe vs Le Pen with Jupe up by 30 points in the (lol) polls for that particular matchup.
could you please explain the specifics of how the election work? its not a vote and then the most popular candidate wins right? how does it work? thanks.
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Old 11-10-2016, 12:16 PM   #7
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

First round: You vote for whoever you want. The top 2 candidates advance to the second round.

Second round: whoever with more than 50% wins.
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Old 11-10-2016, 12:48 PM   #8
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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Originally Posted by tomatoe View Post
i believe france has a parlimentarian coalition system? which means its easier for scheming globalist progressives to thwart the will of the people. you could get 40% le pen, 30% idiot 1, 30% idiot 2, and then the idiots form a coalition and take power leaving le pen out.
you dont know anything about anything
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Old 11-10-2016, 01:07 PM   #9
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

bravo Daca you get the nasty person of this thread award
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Old 11-10-2016, 01:10 PM   #10
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

okay, but 1. it's a presidential election 2. a parliamentary system would have made le pen much more influential. getting 20% in a parliamentary system makes you massively important. 3. "scheming globalist progressives" is basically telling everyone that you're insane.
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Old 11-10-2016, 01:13 PM   #11
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Dont make any nuanced arguments if you want to debate Rebel Inc, you will be able to hear the whoosing over the intertubes.
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Old 11-10-2016, 02:17 PM   #12
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

sad individual

Anyhow, I doubt we are even getting odds on her passing 1st round, her against Juppe or if he somehow pulls Hollande on him at the very last moment, Sarkozy is the match up.

Still as low as 10%, hm, not sure French will listen who to vote for this time. I guess surprise in France is way less likely but if it gets back to 6, I kinda think odds are there.

Migrants and terror is the game in France right now and if she says the right things there is population willing to listen, even in small towns these problems are no longer abstract.
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Old 11-10-2016, 03:26 PM   #13
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
Lol France
This

or

FRANCE LOL!
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Old 11-10-2016, 03:28 PM   #14
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

any yanks who wanna lol at france prolly ought to wait at least 4 years
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Old 11-10-2016, 03:39 PM   #15
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Le Pen is going to win.
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:13 PM   #16
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT View Post
First round: You vote for whoever you want. The top 2 candidates advance to the second round.

Second round: whoever with more than 50% wins.
thanks babar. i was reading something about forming coalitions to shut le penn out. do you know what that was referring to? or if that person was simply misinformed?
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:19 PM   #17
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

The first round everyone votes for whoever they want. Lots of different party candidates will receive votes. In the second round, there are only two candidates on the ballot. Those parties will work to gain the support of the other parties that did not make it to Round 2. The common belief is that Le Pen has strong enough support to advance to HU in Round 2, but will get crushed by a majority of disparate parties ganging up on her to defeat her.

But Le Pen is going to win. We are seeing this play out over and over again now.
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:22 PM   #18
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Polls say that any candidate who is not Hollande beats her by more than 20% in the second round. Juppé by more than 30%. It's not the first time she runs, there is not that much uncertainty about how people will vote.

By any rational fact-based analysis she has almost no chance, so given recent events I guess she can very well win. Why the **** not.
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:27 PM   #19
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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thanks babar. i was reading something about forming coalitions to shut le penn out. do you know what that was referring to? or if that person was simply misinformed?
It's just that candidates who are eliminated in the first round campaign against the Front National in the second one (most of the time).
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:28 PM   #20
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

how many days between first round of voting and second? has le penn ever been tried for "hate speech" like gert wilders?
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:47 PM   #21
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

2 weeks.

Her father was found guilty several times of various forms of hate speech (no quotation marks needed) including apology of crimes against humanity. I think she was tried but not found guilty, she's more careful.
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Old 11-10-2016, 04:56 PM   #22
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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2 weeks.

Her father was found guilty several times of various forms of hate speech (no quotation marks needed) including apology of crimes against humanity. I think she was tried but not found guilty, she's more careful.
in america quotation marks are needed. the 1st amendment protects free speech, even if you say really mean things. im jewish but i am quite happy that in our society people are free to call me a **** or deny the holocaust. long live the 1st amendment.
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Old 11-10-2016, 05:00 PM   #23
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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in america quotation marks are needed. the 1st amendment protects free speech, even if you say really mean things. im jewish but i am quite happy that in our society people are free to call me a **** or deny the holocaust. long live the 1st amendment.
French politics (and continental European politics for that matter) is much less stable or civil than Anglo-Saxon politics. The Allies went overboard to stamp down fringe parties and hate groups after WW2.
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Old 11-10-2016, 05:10 PM   #24
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Your post doesn't make any sense.

What about continental European countries that are Anglo-Saxon?
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Old 11-10-2016, 05:12 PM   #25
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Re: Le Pen France elections your thoughts

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomatoe View Post
in america quotation marks are needed. the 1st amendment protects free speech, even if you say really mean things. im jewish but i am quite happy that in our society people are free to call me a **** or deny the holocaust. long live the 1st amendment.
It's still hate speech even when it's legal.

Last edited by chytry; 11-10-2016 at 05:20 PM.
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