Quote:
Originally Posted by LordJvK
I didn't want Brexit, and I didn't want Trump either and both of those things happened, despite all common sense and data suggesting they would not.
Every sign to me suggests the same will happen in France, despite difference in the system.
There is nothing contradictory in thinking this.
Which signs? france voted recently (2015, regional election, let's call them "gubernatorial races" if you want an american translation) and the front national was the 1st party in 6 out of 12 regions, but on the second round it lost everywhere. And that was close to a big terrorist attack.
The massacre was on november 13th and they voted in early december.
§Not saying Le Pen here will lose automatically but there seems to be no connection between trump/brexit vote , and france presidential election, no similitude a part for the political offer.
Trump got mostly the votes that republicans always get(even is geographically distributed slightly differently, to his advantage in the EC). National polls were 3.5/4 in favore of clinton, actual result was +2.2.
Brexit was polled at 51-49 for remain and went 48-52, not a huge swing.
Here you have a 64-36 (!!!) poll Macron vs Le Pen on the 2nd round... you understand that for it to be wrong it would mean something like california voting republican for the EC in 2016 right?
So IF (big IF) it's le pen vs macron les jeux sont fait, gg Le Pen.
Problem is, like other people pointed out, if it's Le Pen vs some1 else.
Vs Fillon, the scandal could get worse, and people on the left could stay at home en mass.
Vs Hamon, centrists and "sane of mind" people could stay at home en mass.
So Le Pen has chances yes. But not against Macron.