If Le Pen's support didn't increase massively after Paris and Nice attacks, I don't see how this one makes much difference.

That was just an epic fail, nobody will talk about this in 3 days

But POTUS obviously already jumped on the news

lol at it being big news in the US. It's higher on some American news sites than on French ones. Dont you people have actual serious **** going on in your own country right now?

Just learned that Macron met his wife when she was his high school French teacher. Thought the French only did that in the movies.

Trump's using it to justify his 'Muslim in all but name' ban.

ugh



basically macron doesnt have much of a base and le pen against fillon or hamon could be uncomfortably close, no?

Is there a good English-language website that gets in to the nitty-gritty of French politics?

Hamon vs Le Pen could be a disaster. Fillon still beats her 60% to 40% in recent polls. That number didnt change even though Fillon dropped in first round polls, there's really a clear divide between the Le Pen voters and the others.

I know polls were "wrong" about Brexit and Trump but they were not double-digit wrong. I really dont see how Le Pen can win without something crazy happening.

Things still look good for Macron. imo the biggest risk for him would be Fillon dropping out and getting replaced by some popular and honest center-right candidate (if they can find one), and so far Fillon is insisting on defending himself terribly and staying in the race.

Right of center no one is honest.

I just have a funny feeling in my bones it's going to happen again.

nah

Are there good reasons why not? On the face of it, France has always seemed a more racist and definitely mire nationalist country than U.K.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/...70766947098625

bayrou isnt actually running, is he? what good could possibly come from that?

Polls and the way the election is setup with its 2 rounds. Read the thread, the question has come up like 3 or 4 times.

Also polls in France are considered of very good quality and the rules make it that it is easy to poll (no electoral college state by state etc...).

Okay great. Let's hope you are right.

So you dont want Le Pen to win, but really really think she will?

Seems consistent.

I didn't want Brexit, and I didn't want Trump either and both of those things happened, despite all common sense and data suggesting they would not.

Every sign to me suggests the same will happen in France, despite difference in the system.

There is nothing contradictory in thinking this.

Which signs? france voted recently (2015, regional election, let's call them "gubernatorial races" if you want an american translation) and the front national was the 1st party in 6 out of 12 regions, but on the second round it lost everywhere. And that was close to a big terrorist attack.

The massacre was on november 13th and they voted in early december.

§Not saying Le Pen here will lose automatically but there seems to be no connection between trump/brexit vote , and france presidential election, no similitude a part for the political offer.

Trump got mostly the votes that republicans always get(even is geographically distributed slightly differently, to his advantage in the EC). National polls were 3.5/4 in favore of clinton, actual result was +2.2.

Brexit was polled at 51-49 for remain and went 48-52, not a huge swing.

Here you have a 64-36 (!!!) poll Macron vs Le Pen on the 2nd round... you understand that for it to be wrong it would mean something like california voting republican for the EC in 2016 right?

So IF (big IF) it's le pen vs macron les jeux sont fait, gg Le Pen.

Problem is, like other people pointed out, if it's Le Pen vs some1 else.

Vs Fillon, the scandal could get worse, and people on the left could stay at home en mass.

Vs Hamon, centrists and "sane of mind" people could stay at home en mass.

So Le Pen has chances yes. But not against Macron.

We were told that Hilary had a 90% chance of winning.

I remember talking to me friend in Philly who told me he had no chance of carrying Pennsylvania and just went to bed fully expecting to wake up to a Hilary victory.

Now, I know the situation is different from country to country, but there was near certainty from pundits on US election, including one data analyst on the Times podcast who said he'd eat his hat if he was wrong.

Obviously, I do not have a view from inside of France, only from the outside, but I just see reports that the mood in the country is not a million miles away from the mood here or in the US.

I have less faith in data than I used to.

We will see soon enough.

If you think the data is wrong feel free to bet against it and make lots of money. You'll find takers in this thread.

le pen is at 25% on betfair, trump was at roughly the same, brexit was at a little more, hofer was a little more still iirc.

there's probably been some smaller lessons learned, but i dont think there's some great message there. youre not going to fade everything.

Everyday at noon local time, there will be a poll published here. 500 people polled everyday with a one third rolling everyday for 1.5k people overall.

Well , 538 had hillary at 70 not 90, and mistakes in modeling the RESULTS are only partially linked to poll data. You can add more mistakes with the modeling, and state-poll data were not very good to begin with.

For france instead, you need no modeling, it's an up or down vote, nationally. You still have many systemic mistake possibilities, but for the 64-36 to be wrong (and with that we mean, for the vote to go in favor of the 36 if they voted tomorrow) will mean like 3 or 4 orders of magnitude of mistake more than with the US election estimates.

Like trump winning 48 states or something like that.

Hofer lost though, and that was after trump winning.