I had a look at PredictIt and Petry was @.31 to be the next chancellor which is absolutely lol.
Much in that market will depend on who the SPD picks. If they choose Gabriel, they're probably getting rekt and it's gonna be Merkel all the way.

But the AFD getting >5% and therefore getting seats in the Bundestag is pretty much a lock at this point (hovering around 10-13% in most polls).

Yeah, i don't see how the wouldn't get at least 10%. CDU will probably lose massively to them. With the social democrats (SPD) we dont know yet. If they nominate Gabriel for Chancellor they will be lucky to make it above 20%. If the nominate Schulz and for once move to the left they will do better. But i doubt that will happen.

And since i was wrong with the Brexit and Trump there is a good chance that the AfD will get to the 20% mark.

If Merkel gets unseated, it will be by a center-left government, so the demise of the "Raute" wouldn't exactly be a sign of a right wing apocalypse.

The only way it would be a sign of a drift to the right would be if there was a party internal coup. That is never going to happen. Literally <1% chance.

I will say that I am largely ignorant, but I was thinking perhaps of some situation where the CDU get hammered, remain the largest party but have to continue in a similar grand coalition. In that situation is it unthinkable that she quietly steps aside?

There is no one to replace here, except Schäuble. Our 74 year old treasure minister who helped a big deal with tearing europe apart.

I went and voted Juppé. Everyone at my polling station probably realized that I was an UNDERCOVER SOCIALIST because I was pretty much the only one under 50. The massive participation is supposed to mean that more moderates voted, which would hurt Sarkozy, but the crowd I saw looked a lot like Sarkozy voters. It would be awesome if he didnt make it to the second round. And I wouldnt have to vote a second time.

how come the socialists are so unpopular right now? just the terrorist attacks?

the afd vote in the regions has been pretty interesting this year. in the west it's mostly been from cdu. in the east, where they far strongest, half of it has been from previous non-voters and then equally from all parties with maybe even die linke hit hardest.

i dont think there's any chance they crush the cdu vote.

Mostly rising unemployment and the fact that Hollande wasted everyone's last 5 years to tackle issues. We've never had a president that's as unpopular than Hollande.

Primary results rolling in here:

https://resultats.primaire2016.org/index.html#/total

Looks like its gonna be Fillon vs. Juppe next Sunday.

bravo Rebel Inc. you get the whiny child of this thread award.

Fillon landslide. That's huge, the guy had 9% in the polls 3 weeks ago. Except for his pro Russia & anti gay stance, I like the guy.

Does it seem likely he'll get enough support to win the second round easily? Is Sarkozy's 21% more likely to go either way?

Sarkozy conceded and endorsed Fillon as well, so Juppe seems done.

Juppé is 100% done. Basically he was the left of his party, Fillon the center, and Sarkozy the right. Sarkozy voters are absolutely going to Fillon. And for those like me who went to that primary and voted Juppé just to block Sarkozy it's mission accomplished, we wont vote in the second round.

I just realized that Juppé is the French JEB!: they both put exclamation point in their logo to try to hide how bland they are.

lol sarko

off to jail now

doesnt matter had bruni

Trump too. Too bad we wont see the awkward state dinners where she banged all the presidents in the room.

lol

so le pen is going to promise welfare spending and protection as long you stick it to the muslims, while fillon will be campaigning on budget cuts and scraping regulation, and we expect the left to vote fillon?

should be, erhm, interesting.

ECONOMY

FILLON: Proposes cutting 500,000 public sector jobs over five years and scrapping the 35-hour working week. Allow bosses and private sector workers to negotiate working time directly, within an EU limit of 48 hours a week. Require civil servants to work 39 hours a week.

Increase the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65 years. Cut corporation tax from 33 to 25 percent. Scrap a wealth tax on top earners. Cut public spending by 100 billion euros ($106 billion).

IMMIGRATION

FILLON: Reduce immigration to a "strict minimum" via quotas approved by parliament. Increase deportation of illegal migrants. Link development aid to Africa to commitments by countries to take back illegal immigrants.

SECURITY

FILLON: Strip jihadists who travelled to Syria or Iraq to fight alongside Islamic State of their nationality and bar them from returning to France. Allow municipal police to carry guns. Increase prison capacity by 16,000.

ISLAM

FILLON: Introduce a national ban on full-body "burkini" Islamic swimsuits.

FOREIGN POLICY

FILLON: Develop closer ties with Moscow. Lift sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea peninsula. Bring Russia into the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition, along with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Develop closer ties with Iran. Create a eurozone government to harmonise economic policy. Work towards a "Europe of nations" that "respects French sovereignty."

GAY MARRIAGE

FILLON: Wants to amend a 2013 gay marriage law to prevent same-sex couples jointly adopting. Proposes making it harder for children born to foreign surrogate mothers to obtain French citizenship.

---------------------

So lettme get this straight.

The current President of France, Francois Hollande, the left Socialist as an approval rating of 4%. FOUR. Literally FOUR percent.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/02/...-four-percent/

The probable right conservative nominee Fillon seems like a French Ted Cruz.

And you expect either of these people to defeat Trump.... I mean Marine Le Pen...

I don't know a lot about French politics. But, I think this all seems like wishcasting. Requesting a Eurotard to explain it to us.

Is this as scary as it sounds cos' it sounds very scary.

Can we hope that some of the potential le Pen vote goes to fillon?

It's more hoping the French aren't far gone enough to vote for le pen whatever the alternative.

It's hard to explain but basically, 75% of all this won't happen. It's like, politics know it, medias know it, everyone knows most of this won't happen. And TBH, I don't care much of all the societal stuff since I don't think they'll go after gays or migrants much. I just want them to liberalize the economy so we can fix the over 10% unemployment we have.

I won't vote for Fillon comes the actual presidential. Macron is my man. He actually brings something fresh to the table.

Fillon isn't as bad as how people want him to look like, he's just a pragmatic conservative, but not a racist scumbag. He aim for quite harsh economic decision, and is only against the stupid rules of islam.

A softer Tatcher is probably the closest thing you could compare him with

But be sure Journalists ****tards will compare him to Trump and Hitler, because this is how they will sell all those articles during the campaign

A burkini ban is horrible. The government deciding what people wear at the beach just because they dislike a certain religion