I don't know how French elections work so would have to read up some more.

I talked about this in the Betting on Elections thread, but look for strong public opinion and/or polls that many people in the country want change in their lives, unhappy with how the system is run, unhappy with the direction the country is going in etc.

Brexit and Trump happened because most people in the country wanted change from failed "establishment" politicians, and the other side couldn't give convincing arguments that the way things currently were was ok for people.

Calling people racists, bigots, xenophobes etc. is a failed tactic. Remainers called those who wanted Brexit those things. Clinton called Trump supporters those things. It didn't work and never will work. If anything, it made people more likely to vote for Brexit and Trump.

^ i agree that it is a bad electoral tactic but that doesn't make it any less true

fascism defining characteristics : strong nationalism, sexism, identifying enemies/scapegoats, supremacy of the military, anti intellectualism, disdain for human rights, controlled mass media and elections, government and religion being intertwined.

Trump is lacking on the religion front (Pence tho) and controlling medias/elections seem quite wrong but in every other respect this is classic fascism

the french are pretty much chronically pessimistic afaict

Does that mean they would vote for Le Pen?

Remember the good old days when we could all do that

Now I'm hoping that France remembers how much it dislikes the USA and the UK so defines itself as different and votes sane.

well, some of them will.

maybe the trump/brexit "we'll be great again" stuff doesnt work as well when everyone thinks things will always be merde. idunno

i am afraid that "stuff is happening" and it is impossible that it will just die off. somehow it has to realize itself, and we can see that through brexit, trump, nationalist movements in europe, and even on the internet.

the question to me is just how will all of this play out? how will this "energy" release itself?

People have been voting in le pen types in places nobody expected lately. Silly to underestimate in any country right now.

Le Pen is mightier than the Juppe!

So, polls are getting very close for the republican primary, which is supposed to determine the election. A pollster noted that 58% of those who said they would certainly vote are not aware that it's next sunday. No idea wtf is going to happen, posting the current predictwise numbers for future lols:
http://predictwise.com/politics/french-politics

Outcome	PredictWise	Derived Betfair Price	Betfair Back	Betfair Lay	Party	Derived Hypermind Price
Alain Juppe	35%	$ 0.382	2.54	2.7	The Republicans	$ 0.360
Marine Le Pen	20%	$ 0.270	3.65	3.75	National Front	$ 0.170
Francois Fillon	17%	$ 0.159	6	6.6	The Republicans	$ 0.210
Emmanuel Macron	10%	$ 0.062	14	19	Independent	$ 0.165
Nicolas Sarkozy	8%	$ 0.108	9	9.6	The Republicans	$ 0.070
Manuel Valls	3%	$ 0.022	36	60	Socialist	$ 0.035
Francois Hollande	2%	$ 0.020	42	65	Socialist	$ 0.035
Francois Bayrou	1%	$ 0.002	400	750	Democratic Movement	$ 0.010
Jean-Luc Melenchon	1%	$ 0.004	200	290	Left Party	$ 0.025
Arnaud Montebourg	1%	$ 0.012	50	220	Socialist	$ 0.015
Other	1%					$ 0.025
Martine Aubry	0%	$ 0.002	400	750	Socialist	$ 0.005

A month ago the top contenders were (still according to predictwise):
The race is not as stable and boring as I hoped.

Yeah, I agree with the primaries polls being garbage. We've got no idea who is going to vote.

I love Sarkozy at 8%, like Macron at 10%. I would bet Fillon at anything under 15%. Le Pen at 20% is a joke. Not a chance she wins, even against someone like Hollande.

Read a lot of posts like this recently.

The real delusion is that this is anything new in the US. This is the country made mighty by slavery and segregation and fighting communism. Hell, the last third party candidate to win a state in a US presidential election was George Wallace.

On the day of the first round of the conservative primary, the election might already have its first big surprise. In the latest poll, conservative centrist Alain Juppé, everbody's favorite for the presidency just a couple weeks ago, has been overtaken by François Fillon, who performed well in the 3 debates:

Fillon 30%
Juppé 29%
Sarkozy 29%

Top 2 will face heads up next Sunday. Seems like it will be a real squeaker, and Juppé might be finished before the election really starts. Would be a big shock, but Fillon would be a big favorite against Sarkozy in the 2nd round of the primary, so the fundamentals of the election wouldn't change that much.

Le Pen's biggest (only?) chance is against Sarkozy, because he is so hated by the left and centrist voters that they might stay at home in a runoff, and Le Pen's base > Sarkozy's base

Post of the thread

Le Pen is <2/1 with a lot of UK Bookies

Le Pen is the third horse of the apocalypse when it comes to right-wing populism. Ugh.

Putin/Trump being #1/#2?

There are German elections in 2017 too brah

What's everyone pronostic for tonight? I'm thinking Fillon / Sarkozy with Sarkozy ahead and a Fillon wins next week.

The day AfD wins seats in the Bundestag is a step towards the fourth horse. Given that they almost got some in 2013...

I mean if Germany can fall victim to the far right again, it's all over.

I've not seen much in the way of quantitative data, but I would think it's pretty close to a lock for them to break the 5% threshold this time around.

Would doubt it's enough to unseat Merkel, but who knows, we live in crazy times.

Yeah there seems to be a lot of momentum from Juppé towards Fillon, with Sarkozy being stable, so that prognosis seems good.

Question is the general election. Can Fillon unite from left to centre-right against far right Le Pen? From what I hear he is to the right of Juppé, admires Thatcher and opposes same sex marriage. Might be a tough sell for the left...

SARKO FACHO
LE PEUPLE AURA TA PEAU

that's it for my french politics analysis