So, polls are getting very close for the republican primary, which is supposed to determine the election. A pollster noted that 58% of those who said they would certainly vote are not aware that it's next sunday. No idea wtf is going to happen, posting the current predictwise numbers for future lols:
http://predictwise.com/politics/french-politics
Outcome | PredictWise | Derived Betfair Price | Betfair Back | Betfair Lay | Party | Derived Hypermind Price |
---|
Alain Juppe | 35% | $ 0.382 | 2.54 | 2.7 | The Republicans | $ 0.360 |
Marine Le Pen | 20% | $ 0.270 | 3.65 | 3.75 | National Front | $ 0.170 |
Francois Fillon | 17% | $ 0.159 | 6 | 6.6 | The Republicans | $ 0.210 |
Emmanuel Macron | 10% | $ 0.062 | 14 | 19 | Independent | $ 0.165 |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 8% | $ 0.108 | 9 | 9.6 | The Republicans | $ 0.070 |
Manuel Valls | 3% | $ 0.022 | 36 | 60 | Socialist | $ 0.035 |
Francois Hollande | 2% | $ 0.020 | 42 | 65 | Socialist | $ 0.035 |
Francois Bayrou | 1% | $ 0.002 | 400 | 750 | Democratic Movement | $ 0.010 |
Jean-Luc Melenchon | 1% | $ 0.004 | 200 | 290 | Left Party | $ 0.025 |
Arnaud Montebourg | 1% | $ 0.012 | 50 | 220 | Socialist | $ 0.015 |
Other | 1% | | | | | $ 0.025 |
Martine Aubry | 0% | $ 0.002 | 400 | 750 | Socialist | $ 0.005 |
A month ago the top contenders were (still according to predictwise):
Quote:
- Alain Juppe 53% The Republicans
- Nicolas Sarkozy 16% The Republicans
- Marine Le Pen 13% National Front
- Francois Hollande 8% Socialist
The race is not as stable and boring as I hoped.