Israeli containment thread

[Bill Haywood]

Originally Posted by ShttsWeak

Not sure what your implying...To be sure both Israel & the U.S actively pursue regime change in Iran. Their methods are a combination of economic warfare & covert actions though.

Implication being that Bibi's attack had limited military objectives, it's real purpose being to affect the political climate. I don't see how it could succeed militarily, hence speculation on a political motive.

[Hadis]

Originally Posted by Bill Haywood

Implication being that Bibi's attack had limited military objectives, it's real purpose being to affect the political climate. I don't see how it could succeed militarily, hence speculation on a political motive.

You got it slightly backwards in the words of Henry Kissinger "Israel doesn't have a foreign policy; only a domestic policy", it true still.
In our case it means that Bibi is fear mongering in order to keep Lekud as the main ruling party,in other words it may affect the future Palestinian state (or lack of), but it is not the goal but a byproduct.

[ShttsWeak]

Originally Posted by Bill Haywood

Implication being that Bibi's attack had limited military objectives, it's real purpose being to affect the political climate. I don't see how it could succeed militarily, hence speculation on a political motive.

The risk/reward to bombing Iran is interesting to think about. The risks for Israel are much more significant than those of the U.S. If Hezbollah is indeed a proxy of Iran than it's hard to imagine them sitting idly by. They're said to have atleast 50k rockets at their disposal. How will Syria or Egypt react to an airstrike/invasion of Lebanon? What will Irans own military do in retaliation to the airstrike? How might Gaza militants react?

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Foreign%20...to%20a%20joint

Address by Prime Minister Netanyahu to a joint session of the US Congress- 10 July 1996

I have touched on the problem of the Middle East that is largely undemocratic, and part of it is strongly anti-democratic. Specifically, it is being radicalized and terrorized by a number of unreconstructed dictatorships whose governmental creed is based on tyranny and intimidation.

The most dangerous of these regimes is Iran, that has wed a cruel despotism to a fanatic militancy. If this regime, or its despotic neighbor Iraq, were to acquire nuclear weapons, this could presage catastrophic consequences, not only for my country, and not only for the Middle East, but for all mankind.

I can't imagine Bibi engaging Iran for a favorable political enviroment. He's been warning everybody and their mother about Iran for a long time.

[Hadis]

Originally Posted by ShttsWeak

I can't imagine Bibi engaging Iran for a favorable political enviroment. He's been warning everybody and their mother about Iran for a long time.

If you want I can find you a quote from wikileaks there he is admitting he have no idea what Iran is actually trying to do or what it capable of, around 2005 I think.

But yeah,I in the camp that think it is a show and a real military confrontation is unlikely ,if things remain as they are.
But because of the build up it is unstable situation if, Iran for example will assassinate a diplomat (as a reprisal for their dead nuclear scientists for example), all hell can break loose.

[champstark]

+1 to everything Hadis has posted in this thread, on point

[ShttsWeak]

Originally Posted by Hadis

If you want I can find you a quote from wikileaks there he is admitting he have no idea what Iran is actually trying to do or what it capable of, around 2005 I think.

But yeah,I in the camp that think it is a show and a real military confrontation is unlikely ,if things remain as they are.
But because of the build up it is unstable situation if, Iran for example will assassinate a diplomat (as a reprisal for their dead nuclear scientists for example), all hell can break loose.

I don't doubt that he may have acknowleged he's outside of Iranian loop but there has been no bigger a hawk than Bibi himself on Iran. No single politician that I can think of that comes even close to him. I can post numerous links from youtube of him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xg7r7...07188E5897EE3C

[uke_master]

If the claim is that it is largely just a big show with no intention of occurring, is the leak and subsequent investigation of the leak also deliberately part of the show? Part of the rational that they are considering this more seriously than normal is that it was being hidden from the public and not meant to come out but then was leaked.

[Hadis]

Originally Posted by ShttsWeak

I don't doubt that he may have acknowleged he's outside of Iranian loop but there has been no bigger a hawk than Bibi himself on Iran. No single politician that I can think of that comes even close to him. I can post numerous links from youtube of him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xg7r7...07188E5897EE3C

Here is the interesting part he would never use this rhetoric in Hebrew, strange, heh?

[ShttsWeak]

Originally Posted by Hadis

Here is the interesting part he would never use this rhetoric in Hebrew, strange, heh?

I don't know that it's strange as most Israelis are english speaking. I accept that he doesnt do this @ home (does he need to?) but I don't think he's talking out of his ass to the American public either.

I'm not suggesting he's more hawkish about bombing Iran than certain U.S politicians. I'm saying he has been the loudest voice in convincing Americans (western countries in general with economic leverage)of the dangers posed.

If you think he's being disingenious in the interests of others than I'm gonna need some convincing.

[Hadis]

Originally Posted by ShttsWeak

I don't know that it's strange as most Israelis are english speaking. I accept that he doesnt do this @ home (does he need to?) but I don't think he's talking out of his ass to the American public either.

I'm not suggesting he's more hawkish about bombing Iran than certain U.S politicians. I'm saying he has been the loudest voice in convincing Americans (western countries in general with economic leverage)of the dangers posed.

If you think he's being disingenious in the interests of others than I'm gonna need some convincing.

I think when he speaks in Israel, his job is to get reelected.
I think then he speak to U.S. his job is to ensure financial and military support.
It two different jobs and they require two different set of tools.
As for what he really thinks, I think it is closer to what he said in private talks with U.S. diplomatic staff ,I'll try to find it for you in wikileaks.

[Gamblor]

Originally Posted by Hadis

I think when he speaks in Israel, his job is to get reelected.
I think then he speak to U.S. his job is to ensure financial and military support.
It two different jobs and they require two different set of tools.
As for what he really thinks, I think it is closer to what he said in private talks with U.S. diplomatic staff ,I'll try to find it for you in wikileaks.

you say its all for the "show".

perhaps you can clarify for me:

every other israeli prime minister in the last 20 years has had 2 jobs
1) get re-elected
2) remind the US why they provided financial and military support (though our neighbours do a good enough job on their own obv).

Why hasn't every other politician been banging the war drum for the last 20 years? why did barak not talk about iran, but now he is suddenly gung ho? part of the coalition agreement?

I dont think bibi is just shouting for aid and votes when he talks about iran (though they are nice ancillary benefits for him). i think he genuinely believes a shift in the balance of power will lead to lots and lots of dead people

[Hadis]

Originally Posted by Gamblor

you believe that its all for the show.

the flaw in your logic is as follows (perhaps you can clarify) for me:

every other israeli prime minister in the last 20 years has had 2 jobs

1) get re-elected
2) remind the US why they provided financial and military support (though our neighbours do a good enough job on their own obv).

Why hasn't every other politician been banging the war drum for the last 20 years? why did barak not talk about iran, but now he is suddenly gung ho? part of the coalition agreement?

I dont think bibi is just shouting for aid and votes when he talks about iran(though they are nice ancillary benefits for him).

I can tell you two others that played the drums pretty well, It Peres (and yes, I'm serious and he been doing it going back at least 15 years,you can Google it if you don't believe me) and Leiberman

As for why not to play the war drum,there is actual possibility that playing that tune may in the end will lead to war.
As for Barak, I have no idea in slightest why he does what he does,unless you believe that indeed each time he is in coalition it is a "crucial point for Israel".

[Bill Haywood]

Originally Posted by ShttsWeak

I can't imagine Bibi engaging Iran for a favorable political enviroment. He's been warning everybody and their mother about Iran for a long time.

But I don't think a bombing campaign can actually destroy the Iranian nuclear program. So what would an attack be for?

If ex-intelligence chiefs are leaking the plans to sabotage them, that ups the chances that an attack is really in the works. But it's hard to imagine them doing anything more than a quick strike, there being so many risks.

[Andz]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...Netanyahu.html

As the conversation drifted to Israel, Mr Sarkozy is reported to have said: “I cannot bear Netanyahu, he’s a liar.”

Mr Obama did not challenge the assertion, instead replying: “You may be sick of him, but me, I have to deal with him every day.”

[champstark]

Originally Posted by Andz

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...Netanyahu.html

As the conversation drifted to Israel, Mr Sarkozy is reported to have said: “I cannot bear Netanyahu, he’s a liar.”

Mr Obama did not challenge the assertion, instead replying: “You may be sick of him, but me, I have to deal with him every day.”

Sigh. I'm sure it's true, but this will really hurt Obama domestically.