Here's a real bummer ... I'm listening to this "OnPoint" podcast from a few years ago:
http://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2014/07/...-san-francisco
The USGS is predicting (with a 99 percent probability) that the next "Big One" will occur along the San Andreas fault sometime in the next 30 years - meaning that such a mega natural disaster is likely to happen during our lifetimes. (I'm not sure about exact numbers since all these figures are "guesstimates," but the USGS pegs the chances of a "Big One" - a magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake occurring next week or next year in southern California - at somewhere in the 70+ percent range.) When this event does occur, we'll find out real quick how important California is to both the global (and our own national) economy. Question: Can all our computers and the internet continue running if California is suddenly knocked offline? (Where are we if Silicon Valley is significantly disrupted? Donald Trump might say: "Better off!")
If there are major infrastructure disruptions to the L.A. (and surrounding) areas, as described by Ms. Jones, reconstruction costs will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars - if not greater. (Think of all the pollution that will be thrown up into the air from all the fires.) The rest of the country will be faced with an interesting question: How much is California worth, economically, to the rest of the country? Will the rest of the country be asked to "bail out" California - the same way we bailed out Wall Street? If a substantial population shift occurs as people choose to leave California rather than remain around for a long and grueling reconstruction, how much of a reduction in federal tax revenues will result? If millions of people leave California for other parts of the country - and don't return - how much political clout does the "Golden State" lose? To what extent would such a realignment and population shift affect national politics? (Offhand, I would think a disaster like this would be a [political] disaster for the Democratic Party, but that's just my guess.) How "welcome" would California migrants be in states like Georgia and Kentucky? (How much of the weekly Vegas take comes from people driving in from Southern California?)
I've heard an oft-repeated statement to the effect that California, a single state, is the world's fifth largest economy. If California's aggregate contribution to the federal government's tax base is greater than the amount of transfer payments and military spending that goes back to the state; the next "Big One" could turn into an economic disaster for the entire country. Can the country afford to spend massive amounts of money rebuilding California - while simultaneously continuing current spending? Will the wealthy and the one percent want to give up their tax cuts in order to help "ultra liberal" California? Will voters across the rest of the country want to pay an extra one percent in federal taxes for the express purpose of rebuilding California? (Would President Trump advocate for such a tax increase?) Do the people of West Virginia and Alabama give a rat's a** about California? Most people in the rest of the country think the only things that come out of California are movies and liberals ...
If you think the country is divided now, just wait until the first estimates begin rolling in for how much it will cost to "restore and rebuild" Los Angeles.
