Originally Posted by zikzak
Come on, man. Any reasonable person who knows who Nate Silver is and what he does, on reading that statement, will assume that 538 has very recently published a blog entry in which Nate claims that the general election is a toss up. He hasn't. He hasn't even started to post forecasts yet.
Any other interpretation of the statement is just playing semantic games.
The link to the graph I posted has been in the "Obama's reelection chances" thread many times and the link itself is 538blahblahblah. It IS Nate Silver's work.
He did a statistical analysis in Jan 2011 looking retrospectively at all incumbent re-elections since FDR and correlated re-election chances with Gallup approval ratings.
Looking at said graph shows, by Mr. Silver's analysis in his Jan 2011 blog, that if the election were held today, by his analytic technique, it would be a toss-up.
That's all I said. I didn't say, "Today..... Nate Silver got off his high horse and stated with metaphysical certitude blah, blah blah would happen."
But of course, since you guys all fawn over "Nate", and his analysis isn't very favorable to your guy and your ingrained meme, by all means , attack the syntax of my writing and not the unassailable truth I put forward, which is buttressed by all the polling this past week since Frothy's departure which shows the election very, very close.
If you are actually interested in Mr Silver's analysis: