Obama's strategy: The long game

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1343347.html

I was debating Phill's accusation that Obama can win the popular vote 60-40 on this planet Earth. Obama cannot (barring Romney's five sons accusing him of sexual molestation). Yes, I agree with you Jonas that Obama won the popular vote against McCain. I suppose our only disagreement is the definition of "crushed". But first you must agree with me, that Obama cannot win the popular vote 60-40.

LOL this was actually really funny

I don't know if this applies to this thread, but if Paul runs independent, does that change anyone's minds on how Romney does? Or Obama for that matter.

I heard Paul say he wouldn't, but I just don't see how he CAN'T run independent at this point.

Cut a deal with Romney and get some power assuming he was to win?

I think if RP runs 3rd party Romney has 0 chance of winning.

Well, I generally share your views on this but the facts are Mitt Romney hasn't done any of the evil stuff Obama has done.

Time to vote this puppet off the island.

I'm voting 3rd party tho probably lol

all i know is I am putting as much money as possible on Obama to win. There is no way Romney will win based on a few things.

I have yet to see people that actually love Romney and are die-hard Romney fans. Most are just stuck with him. Romney seems so unrelatable from a average American point of view that people cant trust him. Lastly, when it comes down to it, All Democrats will pick Obama over Romney, Most Republicans will pick Romney over Obama, and Most Independence will vote for Obama or 3rd party, but not Romney.

lol.

So the number of people that go out to vote will be exactly equal dems to repubs? Its more about getting out the people who will vote for you, if people stay home that would have voted for Obama or Romney, either one would have a hard time winning. Dems won't be as excited to vote "against Bush" this time around imo. Conversely, repubs don't seem to want to vote in a primary for Romney. Obama might get out the repub vote better than Romney can.

Even if RP doesn't run third party, I think Romney has 0 chance of winning. A lot of his supporters will not vote for either candidate. Some might, but then again I know some that will vote for Obama instead of Romney for some reason.

Secret Kenyan Muslim vs secret Mexican. Only in America. USA #1.

umm the Republican congress is the reason there isn't any deficit reduction going on.

I just don't think the ceiling is 53. A lot can happen between now and November. Summer/autumn can bring 3/gallon gas, 7ish unemployment, successful war with Iran, a vibrant Dow, or Romneys dead rentboy. 55 is probably stretching it based on race and that it is the electoral college. Nixon 72 or Johnson 64 surpassed 60-40 barely and those were the big margins since FDR. Modern politics and money make it hard to get separation when courting the votes of idiots. Shifting the electorate from Obama's 53 down to say 51.......mindnumbingly difficult. Even the popular Clinton had trouble hitting 50 percent in 96. Bush straddled 50, and once he was a decent economy/wartime pres.

The biggest obstacle in a Romney loss(Obama cant ceiling in a loss) to hitting a higher percentage is how Romney campaigns at the end. Does he go the Dole/McCain route where he leaves the muslim/black/kenyan/communist barrel unfired, or does he go all in? A negative push at the end will maximize a Romney gross vote total, and help R House prospects. If he goes the patriot/decent route when he sees defeat, Obama's turnout machine won't go gently into the night, and it could suprise you and me both.

I had NPR on today around 130 Eastern. A caller said he was actively supporting Ron Paul, but said he would vote for Obama in the general, AGAIN.
My brain hurts trying to wrap around that.

I dont think his health could take a run in the general. He isnt running for the House again, and I think this is his farewell lap. He wants an unblemished exit, in as far as he can. If he goes third party, he causes an uproar, and his demographic goes back to the further fringes, probably permanently. He is raking in more money than he ever dreamed of as a pol, and wants Rand to have a future. He will go Huckabee/Clinton/Palin and cash in with cable news shows and an "institute".