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06-20-2012, 12:01 AM
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#4606
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 63,381
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Basically, it's not like the chances of Romney winning each swing state are independent. They're very likely to go in groups based on how much support Romney has. Romney simply won't win the GE pop vote by two points and lose the EC.
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06-20-2012, 12:08 AM
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#4607
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banned
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 9,155
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Basically, it's not like the chances of Romney winning each swing state are independent. They're very likely to go in groups based on how much support Romney has. Romney simply won't win the GE pop vote by two points and lose the EC.
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Just the opposite in fact, Obama may well eke out a popular vote win but lose the EC, which is already a tossup imo, and moving toward Romney's side. If Romney wins the popular vote its an easy EC win.
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06-20-2012, 12:09 AM
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#4608
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: The water hemisphere
Posts: 8,058
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
*Thinks about reposting Nate's take on using GE polls v states*
*decides not to, they're past hope at this point*
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But Nate says Obama only has a 63% chance of winning when he's clearly a lock! What a dumbass, DVaut1 should have been the politard with a popular blog.
Last edited by Nichlemn; 06-20-2012 at 12:27 AM.
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06-20-2012, 12:10 AM
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#4609
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: The water hemisphere
Posts: 8,058
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by Copernicus
Just the opposite in fact, Obama may well eke out a popular vote win but lose the EC, which is already a tossup imo, and moving toward Romney's side. If Romney wins the popular vote its an easy EC win.
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There's even less evidence to support this.
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06-20-2012, 12:24 AM
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#4610
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4l Mod of the Year
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: It's a town full of losers.
Posts: 47,706
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Ikes is right.
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06-20-2012, 12:30 AM
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#4611
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Beat Nate Silver
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Blogging 2012 Election Projections
Posts: 12,225
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by Copernicus
Just the opposite in fact, Obama may well eke out a popular vote win but lose the EC, which is already a tossup imo, and moving toward Romney's side. If Romney wins the popular vote its an easy EC win.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cres
there is a rather simple fact of American presidential politics you have equated, but that are diametrically opposite.
pop vote means nada
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Feel free to stop by here and back up your ridiculous assertions with math. If you can't no one need listen to you amirite?
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06-20-2012, 12:32 AM
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#4612
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: 6'20" and killing for fun.
Posts: 12,589
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichlemn
But Nate says Obama only has a 63% chance of winning when he's clearly a lock! What a dumbass, DVaut1 should have been the politard with a popular blog.
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I approve of your edit. 
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06-20-2012, 12:49 AM
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#4613
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 63,381
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by Copernicus
Just the opposite in fact, Obama may well eke out a popular vote win but lose the EC, which is already a tossup imo, and moving toward Romney's side. If Romney wins the popular vote its an easy EC win.
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This doesn't seem true at all. Romney's support in many red states is deeper than Obama's supper in deep blue states. Romney didn't lose to a felon in any primary.
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06-20-2012, 01:08 AM
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#4614
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RIZZAHHHHHH
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: hello, yes this is goat
Posts: 10,580
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
This doesn't seem true at all. Romney's support in many red states is deeper than Obama's supper in deep blue states. Romney didn't lose to a felon in any primary.
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Neither did Obama, so they're square on that one.
Not sure how the WV primary translates to his support in deep blue states either. If you've got data backing that up, that's cool, but don't think you can use a red state's primary to extrapolate that his support doesn't run as deep as Romney.
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06-20-2012, 01:12 AM
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#4615
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 63,381
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingDonkey
Neither did Obama, so they're square on that one.
Not sure how the WV primary translates to his support in deep blue states either. If you've got data backing that up, that's cool, but don't think you can use a red state's primary to extrapolate that his support doesn't run as deep as Romney.
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1) It's mostly a joke.
2) If I was being completely serious, it would mean Obama is doing worse in red states than Romney is doing in blue states. Aka, Romney wins MS by 20 while Obama only wins CT by 15.
The difference between the two is pretty small, but it seems more likely to a bunch of smart people that Romney will have a slightly tougher time getting to 270 than Obama.
Last edited by ikestoys; 06-20-2012 at 01:33 AM.
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06-20-2012, 01:27 AM
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#4616
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4l Mod of the Year
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: It's a town full of losers.
Posts: 47,706
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
Ikes is right.
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I may have jumped the gun on this.
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06-20-2012, 01:35 AM
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#4617
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 63,381
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.3%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 3.0%
538
MASSIVE ADVANTAGE not existent, but something is there.
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06-20-2012, 01:36 AM
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#4618
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 40,964
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Which part is mostly a joke? The outright falsehood you closed on and got called out for, then fact checked and realised you were wrong and thus backtracked? Or another part?
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06-20-2012, 01:38 AM
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#4619
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 63,381
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
And phil is really desperate for a win. You've had a tough week budday, you can think you won this one.
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06-20-2012, 01:41 AM
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#4620
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banned
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 9,155
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Re: And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
This doesn't seem true at all. Romney's support in many red states is deeper than Obama's supper in deep blue states. Romney didn't lose to a felon in any primary.
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Obama will have very large margins of victory in some very large states. If Romney overcomes those wins in the popular vote its with a ton of EVs
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