Originally Posted by Brons
I haven't checked the polling but this sounds almost impossible if there are no catastrophic events against Obama.
I just went by margin of victory in 2008. Figured those are the ones that will be easiest to flip.
McCain 2008 states + the states: IN, NC, FL, OH which were within <5%.
Next tier (margin between 5% and 10%) you have VA, CO, IA, NH and PA in that order. I figured VA (next closest margin of victory) and NH (RMoney's NE ties).
And there you go. 270 Romney vs. 268 Obama.