Come at me bro, 100% in politics wagers (n=2 that I can think of).

start at post #120 for some more lol ikes
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...-5-6-a-180886/

If you felt confident in making a prediction that goes strongly against what other people willing to wager money think, that suggests some pretty good skill (relative to them, which is all that matters).


The main opportunity cost of long term bets is having to keep your money tied up in a non-interest bearing account (such as Intrade). If you're doing a non-escrowed bet, the opportunity cost is having sufficient liquidity to pay up the bet should that be necessary, which should be a much smaller burden.

TIL that Ron Paul had a super secret delegate plan back in 2008.

Also, ikes "I can get a higher return playing poker" argument is about as stupid as saying I won't bet $2 on a ++EV bet because I can get a 1000% return on a bus fare working at McDonalds for a few hours.

How on earth did you make money in poker when you refused to go all-in because you couldn't control the cards??1!?!?!!?1!?!

A+ work tyler

Also, why were there new threads for the Presidential race every few weeks back in 2008, but apparently it's fine to have one giant thread for it this year?

I just noticed this post of mine elicited a wager offer and multiple comments concerning the topic of wagers and political opinions. Anyone interested in this type of thing should check out intrade although it's not comprehensive and it's a relatively small illiquid market.

I'm not looking to place a wager with anyone on this site but if I were I'd have to get pretty good odds on my original post. I think Obama is approaching a potential freefall as I said but the most likely scenario is a close election either way. After this week's events an Obama freefall has increased dramatically, maybe from 1% to 10%. Things can spiral out of control quickly in politics.

I do think the sharks are circling around him and if he doesn't make significant changes soon he is likely to become a solid underdog.

For instance within the past couple hours Holder has appointed 2 prosecuters to hold an investigation into potential criminal leak's coming from the administration. This was prompted by calls for an investigation from the democrat and republican leaders of the intelligence committee in both the house and senate. These are generally the type of things that precede a potential freefall. Obama has less friends than most realize.

I don't think the weekly threads in 08 started till around the time of the conventions.

Ikes you really gotta start providing some friggin citation imo.

lol pass it all off onto the states. No no no, the federal government has absolutely nothing to do with our problems.

****ing scum.

The funny thing about this "just fine" stuff is that Romney is planning to increase defence spending because that will directly hire more people to offset how shrinking government is an anchor on the economy. This is basically what Reagan did back in the day. It is also one of the few ways that fiscal conservatives dont care about bloated government spending and stimulus. Cos bombs and guns are cool imo.

Given he doesnt actually have any plans for the private sector to set him apart from Obama it is implicit that he agrees with him though im sure he wouldnt phrase it as such.

Plus he plans to use magic underwear to get 5% growth year on year for a decade which will help.

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black swan events tho