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Old 03-20-2017, 11:42 PM   #20951
golfnutt
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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I'm patient and hopeful but it is going to take time. It's going to require the republicans crash and burn directly or indirectly than more time on top of that. I said years ago in this thread that I thought even as flawed as it was the passage of the ACA was substantial because it would be pretty much impossible to unwind. Even if Ryan's wet dream of killing millions of Americans comes true it will absolutely destroy the republican position in congress.

The reality is even if Clinton or Sanders won there would not have been single payer under either of them. Healthcare has turned into one of the biggest political hot potatos in the history of the US. The surprise Trump victory, though, turned it into a grenade, pulled the pin and dropped it into congresses hand.

I don't really have any good ideas on how we expedite things myself. It's going to take time and it's likely worst case short term outcomes are the only way to exchange time for long term changes. The current issue is what does Ryan secretly change and can the house pass it? Ultimately they won't get any kind of actual bill turned into law but failure can improve the optics to help unseat republicans. The question is how many Americans will experience worse outcomes before 2018 elections? That will likely only be a small stepping stone but I think healthcare kills the GOP in congress in 2020. Hard to really see out beyond that. But I still believe there is no really backwards with all this so we will ultimately get there. It just might not be pretty.

There are some well versed activists here who can probably provide stronger guidance in terms of how we can best influence real change in congress in the next four plus years. That is going to be the key to how long it takes.

A final thought is the republicans are likely going to be scorched by being stuck with the potato. Healthcare was not and is not some huge idealogy conundrum for republicans. (Except for budget burners). It was simple a means to an end. So once it actually backfires on them it's not like there are going to be a lot of future republican congress people opposing a single payer healthcare, at least not in any way that can not be overcome.

If everything broke absolutely right you might see a serious single payer system on the table and with a chance of passing in 4-5 years. But that is pretty much the best case scenario. Which is pretty depressing.
I sadly agree. It does have to get worse before it gets better. Getting worse means real people will unnecessarily die earlier and painful than necessary. This bill will kill Republican support since it will level those who propolled Trump to victory. Those one-time democrats will go back to supporting democrats.

Long 20-year road to single payer barring a revolution or dictator. Trump was closest hope. I think people thought he might do it. Sadly, not. Imagine if he did do that. 2020 and his legacy would be a lock.
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Old 03-21-2017, 08:01 AM   #20952
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

House freedom caucus said it won't oppose the bill as a group. Has me thinking it might actually pass the house.
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Old 03-21-2017, 11:13 AM   #20953
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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House freedom caucus said it won't oppose the bill as a group. Has me thinking it might actually pass the house.
It will be close. Parties are very good at getting party members who are on the fence to vote along party lines. They will start giving individual representatives their own say or promise of supporting another bill or campaign in the future. These are all closed down sessions so we will never know.

The representatives who were publicly against get to go back to their constituents and say they single-handedly got "xyz" in bill (i.e., exemption for farmers with less than 100 employees.)

What a system. I hope we get to see the bill before it goes to the Senate.
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Old 03-21-2017, 11:53 AM   #20954
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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House freedom caucus said it won't oppose the bill as a group. Has me thinking it might actually pass the house.
Well here are the two most well known freedumb caucus dullards saying they both still oppose it as is

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...arning-on-2018

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Members of the House Freedom Caucus say they are still opposed to the bill just two days ahead of its vote on the floor because it does not repeal ObamaCare's insurer regulations and requirements.

Meadows and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), another Freedom Caucus member, said after Trump's address they're still opposed to the bill.

"I'm still a no, because the bill we're currently considering does not lower premiums for the vast majority of Americans," Meadows said.

"I certainly think that the president is the best guy to bring this home and close this deal out. Hopefully, we'll be able to do that, but if everyone's entrenched at this particular point it's going to be a very difficult 48 hours."
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:00 PM   #20955
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Supposedly Trump said in a closed meeting that he will go on the offensive if they vote against it.
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:01 PM   #20956
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Yeah the one dude in that article appears to not gaf

We could very well soon see a rebuke by Trump as a welcome relief for many of these guys (probably not Meadows, he's in western NC and that's pretty much die hard Trump Forever country)
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:27 PM   #20957
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Trump going after the Rs is going to make for some amazing theater
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:32 PM   #20958
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

It would be but golfnutt isn't wrong either. The magnitude of Trumpcare failing in the house because of his own party would be pretty bad so a lot of dealmaking and compromise could be in order.
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:43 PM   #20959
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

I'm not sure that this bill passing is even a good long-term outcome for the Rs.
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Old 03-21-2017, 12:54 PM   #20960
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Rs don't ever think long-term. I probably can't blame them for that either, it's consistent with their world view.
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Old 03-21-2017, 02:09 PM   #20961
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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I'm not sure that this bill passing is even a good long-term outcome for the Rs.
Debacle either way.

This day was bound to come after Obamacare 7 years ago. Too many upset people. The problem is that there is no unification with what is wrong or how to fix it.

If the bill doesn't pass, I am not sure how long it takes to just craft a new bill. This problem isn't going away. Especially after Donald Trump said "Obamacare is dead." It is the law of the land until it is repealed, so it certainly isn't dead.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:28 PM   #20962
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

let's just stop pretending these *******s aren't just going to fall in line and vote to pass the bill. this is what they do.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:32 PM   #20963
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

I don't think it passes the House. Too many states rely on the Medicaid expansion money.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:37 PM   #20964
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

You mean the money people have no idea where it comes from? Yeah I'm sure those people can't be hoodwinked into blaming Obama.
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Old 03-21-2017, 10:25 PM   #20965
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Kansas (!) is scrambling to pass legislation to finally accept the expanded Medicaid money under ACA while they still can

http://www.ksal.com/kansas-medicaid-...e-uncertainty/
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Old 03-21-2017, 11:04 PM   #20966
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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I'm not sure that this bill passing is even a good long-term outcome for the Rs.
Yeah, I think the best case scenario for the Rs is having it get through the house then not passing the senate because a couple of republican senators vote against it from the right.
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Old 03-21-2017, 11:05 PM   #20967
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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Yeah, I think the best case scenario for the Rs is having it get through the house then not passing the senate because a couple of republican senators vote against it from the right.
I will hear your argument, but I think the House showing themselves so incompetent as to be unable to pass their own bill brings the most opportunity for Dems.
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Old 03-21-2017, 11:11 PM   #20968
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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I will hear your argument, but I think the House showing themselves so incompetent as to be unable to pass their own bill brings the most opportunity for Dems.
I was saying best for republicans. Best for Dems is either what you say or maybe they pass a version of it so bad that even uneducated R voter turns against them.
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Old 03-21-2017, 11:12 PM   #20969
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

I misread you. Carry on.
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Old 03-22-2017, 05:08 AM   #20970
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

I think this actually passes the house. No clue what happens in the Senate. I assume there will be quite a few changes before it can survive there. But still as dead as this thing looked, it definitely still has life.
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Old 03-22-2017, 06:19 AM   #20971
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

So these red states that refused Medicaid expansion have decided that now Medicaid is actually just fine thank you because...Trump?

Don't ever, ever think these people are anything other than what they are.
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Old 03-22-2017, 09:28 AM   #20972
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

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So these red states that refused Medicaid expansion have decided that now Medicaid is actually just fine thank you because...Trump?

Don't ever, ever think these people are anything other than what they are.
The story on NPR that I heard drivetime yesterday talked about how "moderate" Repubs and even some Dems defeated teahadists in November and are taking a more pragmatic approach to their state's healthcare system, which sounded like code for, "The state is broke because of our lolconservative policies, we need this gubmint money."
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Old 03-22-2017, 02:15 PM   #20973
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Why there will never be single payer:

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf
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Old 03-22-2017, 02:45 PM   #20974
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Lol Kansas is rushing to take the extra Medicaid funds now before they're gone. http://www.kansascity.com/news/polit...139930538.html
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Old 03-22-2017, 07:26 PM   #20975
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Re: The Great ObamaCare Debate, Part 233: Back to Back Supreme Court Champion

Can someone explain why the GOP wouldn't simply pass this bill and then lie about the effects of it once they start to occur? They've already clearly demonstrated that their constituents will literally believe anything. Why couldn't they pass this and then just blame the results on Obama?
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