I think the basic idea is a good one. The hardest part of a plan like this is determining what is "unanticipated" and what ailment someone caused themselves.
Quote:
People don't want to pay for their own care, sorry bub. No dialysis for you. Odds are they caused it themselves with a lifetime of Type 2 Diabetes.
What exactly are the odds that they caused it themselves? 60%? 90%? If it was 5%, do we still deny them treatment?
How do we judge that they caused it themselves? Skinny people can get type 2 diabetes too. Genetics can predispose someone to type 2 diabetes. For example, Indian men have 3-4x higher incidence of insulin resistance compared to Caucasians. What happens when a skinny Indian comes to the hospital with diabetes? Probably not his fault? What about a fat Indian? Skinny Caucasian? We could easily get these judgments completely backwards even if we spent a large amount of time and money investigating them.
I know dialysis/diabetes was just an example used to illustrate your plan, but these types of questions are going to apply to ailments across the board.
How about a plan that covers pretty much everything, but we pre-emptively tax the worst health-injuring behaviors? Or to flip it around, offer incentives for people who avoid these behaviors?
Non-smoker tax credit. Non-obese tax credit (this is probably a political nightmare).
Maybe the healthcare tax is tiered in such a way that high-risk people pay a larger premium? In Germany, if you make above a certain amount of income, your healthcare tax actually goes DOWN compared to low-income workers because, as a group, high-income workers are less risky.
There are political problems with all of the solutions, of course, but it is an interesting problem to think about.