right.. right.. They're gonna keep $95 dollars of the tax return of anyone who doesn't get insurance next year. So, $95 from the 2014 tax return filed in 2015. Then $395 from the 2015 tax return filed in 2016. Then $695 from the tax return filed in 2017.

How many people would you expect to not get insurance from either the exchange or their work?

Say there are 35 million 21-33 year olds. Half of them get insurance from their parents. 17.5 million left, half of which get insurance through their job. 8.75 million left and 12% live below the federal (medicaid) poverty line, so, 7.7 million in this estimate. That's $731,500,000 in the first year; $3,041,500,000 in the second year; $5,351,500,000 in the third year. The three year total of withheld tax refunds is $9 Billion, $124 Million dollars from a population that by all accounts are "invincible" and wont have significant health expenses on average.

Is >$9 billion too little to work with?

Only 12% live below the federal poverty line? Sounds low. Don't many 21-6 year olds don't have living parents?
Maybe everyone will wise up, increase their exemptions. Stop having large refunds.

$95 isn't enough for anyone to really even care about. They'll just see they got $95 less, or maybe not. This is a pretty massive failure in implementation, one I suspect was the result of fear. Had they made the penalty the $1500 or $2000 that it should be and needs to be in the first year, right wingers would have had a field day, hence the phase in I'm sure. But when millions of young healthy people have such poor incentives to actually sign up, insurers are going to price that in and the first year exchange premiums are going to be astronomical. Then the frothers will be able to trot out 'ZOMG 50% PREMIUM INCREASES UNDER OBAMACARE DERP.'

How you lefties love those subsidies. Does the money appear from thin air?

The argument was about if people would opt out or not. Try to pay attention and not sound like a junior high-schooler.

Those who pay a penalty and opt not still won't have healthcare. How does that solve anything?

There will be a lot of previously uninsured people getting insurance. Not 100% of them.

100% of those uninsureable people with preexisting conditions will now be be able to get health insurance. Health insurance companies will raise premiums to cover the expense.
When will lefties admit the health insurance model for healthcare doesn't work.

When will rightists stop referring to everyone they disagree with in any sense as "lefties" with a pejorative inflection?

Open enrollment is just once a year, so unless you get a serious CHRONIC illness, that's not gonna help.

Also, for some older people with a chronic illness, they are better off buying bronze than platinum. The max out of pocket costs are somewhere around 5k more for bronze, and it's not difficult to have the premium difference be more than that in a year between the two plans.

Basically it's not as simple as, "I'm sick I need the richest benefit plan." A 62 year old with heart disease is much better off with bronze than platinum.

I think most "lefties" would prefer a single-payer model, but think that Obamacare is incrementally better than what we had before.

And how much of our healthcare spend is for chronic conditions?!??

Lots, but my point was that for a currently healthy person it's not like chronic conditions are the only concern and you can just game the system with your plan choices.

When will you admit there are more than two ways to do things? I'm against both the left and the right. We need an entirely new transparent healthcare model. A model which requires providers to show a menu of prices.

"Let's pass it so we can see what's in it!" I can't see any problems arising out of planning like this on our lawmaker's part, can you? Just another wonderfully thought out plan by people I am sure we all put our ultimate trust in as they were smart enough to get into politics and become our leaders. Well, at least they don't have to have it or get fined. LOL

I can see you've put a lot of thought into this and are well-versed on the subject.

This is what the left actually believes.

The left rammed down a bill, stated thier great bill would reduce health insurance by $2,500 per family. It is now obvious that premiums are going up. It's the rights fault.

Premiums were always going to go up for 80% of the population. The healthy were suppossed to pay more to off set those with preexisting conditions (who insurance was denying and had were being insured by Chips). The act does nothing to contain rising helath care costs.

The republican plan (status quo) does nothing to contain rising healthcare costs either. Worst case scenario at least 30 million people are actually covered now, instead of slipping the cracks.

I agree with you that part of the problem is people having no idea of the cost of things (I think that is what you are saying). I think it is a very tough problem to solve, though, too. In many cases, we are at the mercy of our doctors when it comes to choosing medical services.

If your doctor tells you that you need Service A, I'm not sure how much of a difference the price menu would make.

Doctors are in a tough position, too. Even if you give them proper incentives to keep costs low and avoid unnecessary procedures, they have to balance this with covering their ass. 1000 unnecessary scans and tests are probably paid for by avoiding the malpractice cases for the edge case.

Personally I'm just hoping that we can hurry up and replace a lot of doctor hours with robots (hello Dr. Watson) who can handle the common stuff and leave the expensive flesh-based doctors to deal with the edge cases.

I think I might depend on robots to save us too much, though.

Which is fine. I am good with those who believe everyone needs to pay more to make sure everyone is insured. But that is not how the Dems sold this act nor is it what most of the left believe. They really believe that this was going to reduce insurance premiums and now that it is apparent that it is not, well it must be the rights fault.

In the long run, premiums will have to stop going bananas. So whether it takes public option, single-payer, enforcing pricing transparency, etc. – it will happen. We pay twice as much per capita for healthcare as the rest of the developed world, for similar or worse care.

Let's have this discussion in five years and see where premiums are at. I've read some articles lately that health-care costs and premiums are starting to level off anyway.

For minor problems one can refuse to treat it. For life threatening issues you're up the creek.
For many operations one can go to Asia. These operations costs less than 20% of the costs in the USA. And RNs are serving you during the recovery. CNAs perform these duties in the USA.

Healthcare premiums leveling off means increases of only 8-12%. Not sustainable.

Our problems in the U.S. regarding healthcare today are the result of (not necessarily in this order):

1. We're fat. US obesity rates vs. other countries. April 2013
2. People have no clue what/how to eat (see above - we're fat)
3. Prescription drug companies carry way too much power/cost here. Also utilized too much by people/doctors.
4. Lack of transparency - we've been taught to do whatever doc tells us. How an MRI can cost $2,000 in the hospital yet $600 at the stand alone down the street is crazy. But no one asks questions because they don't know....doc told them they can go here (hospital)....insurance pays it, not me.


So much goes into this problem - unfortunately ACA doesn't address enough and was a platform pushed through because it sounded good(politically) and the majority was there to do so.

Why would the legislators who passed this be looking to opt out/get their own programs? Now that people are figuring out what the 865 page act actually does they're like eeewwww.

Gee, why didn't Romney propose this during the campaign?

"Yes, I want to repeal Obamacare. After all, if a surgery is too pricey in America, just hop on your private jet to Asia and get it done there. Problem solved!"

What percentage of the US population do you think can afford an unplanned round-trip ticket to Asia?