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Old 04-03-2011, 10:05 PM   #1
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Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

OK, let’s have some fun and find out who the real “psychics” are on this forum. We’ll call this the “Government Shutdown Prediction Thread” and here are the rules. You answer (or predict the answers) to the following two questions.

Question 1: Will the Government shut down when the current CR (Continuing Resolution) expires on Friday, April 8th? (Yes/No?)

Question 2: If the Government does shut down, how many days does the shutdown last? (Must give a precise answer such as: “The shutdown will be very short – less than 7 days” or “The shutdown will be protracted, dragging on beyond 30 days amid much haggling, acrimony, and grandstanding among and between politicians of both parties.”

OK, I’ll go first with my prediction(s).

Question 1 - Answer: “Yes, the Government will shut down.”
Question 2 - Answer: “The shutdown will drag on up to (but not more than) 25 days.”

Some type of “compromise agreement” will be announced on the 25th day of the shutdown with Democrats and Republicans both claiming victory while insisting that the other side was totally to blame for the shutdown.

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Old 04-03-2011, 10:08 PM   #2
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

We should be so lucky.
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:10 PM   #3
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Question 1- there will be another continuing resolution as gop is getting to much value out of the sword of damacles. Also Obama obsessed with "bipartisanship".
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:13 PM   #4
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

can this also be general discussion of the shutdown "crisis"?
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:19 PM   #5
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by General Tsao View Post
can this also be general discussion of the shutdown "crisis"?
Sure, why not, but start your reply with your answer(s) to the questions.

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Old 04-03-2011, 10:21 PM   #6
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

OK I'm saying "No the government won't shut down."

But, my reply was going to be a question - what does it mean if the government shuts down? What really happens in that event? Stuff stops getting funded? Troops have to come back?
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:26 PM   #7
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

If the people running the NFL are dumb enough to get to a point of lockout and leave billions on the table I don't hold out much hope for the US government.
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:26 PM   #8
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

It means you will no longer be a General, General :/
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:37 PM   #9
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by General Tsao View Post
OK I'm saying "No the government won't shut down."

But, my reply was going to be a question - what does it mean if the government shuts down? What really happens in that event? Stuff stops getting funded? Troops have to come back?
General Tsao:

That's a good question. I was working as a contractor support employee for the Government during the 1995 Government shutdown. A lot of my fellow workers were put on temporary furlough for the duration of the shutdown. A lot of the Government folks were told to go home too, but they were "laid off" with full pay, so it was basically a vacation for them. I was told to stay right where I was and keep working, so the "shutdown" didn't amount to much as far as I was concerned.

I suspect this is more about political theatre (and political posturing) than it is about dealing with the budget and deficits. The politicians are playing their usual games - attempting to maneuver for political advantage and trying to get a leg up for the next election. That's why any "shutdown" will be short lived. (Do any of you really believe our elected leaders - even the die-hard Tea Partiers - will go more than a month without pay just to score a debating point?)

I suspect real budget cutting (and fiscal discipline) will come about as the result of a crisis in the financial markets - especially the bond markets - and not as a result of political compromise. Our elected leaders are not going to dispense economic pain unless and until they are (reluctantly) forced to act.

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Last edited by Former DJ; 04-03-2011 at 10:42 PM. Reason: Minor edit
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:37 PM   #10
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

I don't expect the government to be "shut down".

Tsao: troops aren't coming home; "essential services" continue, although those employees are only paid retroactively. (Actually, the non-essential employees [exclusive of contractors] were paid retroactively after the last shutdown, if I recall correctly, even though they were furloughed.)
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:42 PM   #11
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

As long as the financial system shuts down and all of my student loans become meaningless, I vote yes. I'll forage for food in the woods.
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:54 PM   #12
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

I wonder if a mod could construct (and put up) an interactive (totally unscientific) "poll" at the top of this thread limiting all participants to a single vote?

The first part of the poll would be the "Yes/No" response to the first question. The second part of the poll would be (for those who answered "Yes" to the Government shutting down) a breakdown of the duration of the shutdown. The options for the second question might be:

o - Shutdown lasts between 1 and 7 days
o - Shutdown lasts between 8 and 14 days
o - Shutdown lasts between 15 and 21 days
o - Shutdown lasts between 22 and 28 days
o - Shutdown lasts 29 days or longer

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Old 04-03-2011, 10:57 PM   #13
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Just start two new threads to solve that problem!
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Old 04-04-2011, 04:14 AM   #14
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Both branches of government work for the same masters it does not matter if there is a government shutdown. They will argue back and forth, talk about martial law, and sign whatever the bankers want signed on the line that is dotted. The sad part is we need $2 trillion in spending cuts, not $100 billion. We need to end the department of energy, department of education, department of agriculture, department of commerce, department of yes men, department of insanely jealous, department of who cares, department of rocks and martian services, department of offense, ...

For every job removed in the public sector will force the private sector worker to pay less taxes and spend more time with his family. So to shutdown government is to give everyone a pay raise. My as well end the fed while you are at it.
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Old 04-04-2011, 05:44 AM   #15
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawntificator View Post
As long as the financial system shuts down and all of my student loans become meaningless, I vote yes. I'll forage for food in the woods.
forage 4 me too... they'll be shutting off my SSI.
[even tho my student loan would disappear too]

Quote:
If the people running the NFL are dumb enough to get to a point of lockout and leave billions on the table I don't hold out much hope for the US government.
Yes, but that doesn't entail turning whole retirement communities in Florida into Benghazis.
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Old 04-04-2011, 09:56 AM   #16
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Prediction: Somalia part II AMIRITE???
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Old 04-04-2011, 10:02 AM   #17
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Cliffs?

This whole issue is not getting any play in UK media, sounds interesting.

Wasssup?
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Old 04-04-2011, 10:14 AM   #18
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

It's political theater. There is a big fight between the Republicans who want to cut 1.7% of the 2011 budget deficit (not the budget, the budget deficit), and the Democrats who think that is "draconian". We are already halfway through fiscal 2011 (without a budget, winging it off of continuing resolutions), and the Fed is monetizing nearly that much every single week. Since the beginning of QE2, the Fed has monetized 83% of new Treasury issuance. Essentially, the Fed is completely supporting the Treasury market right now.
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Old 04-04-2011, 11:18 AM   #19
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

1- Government will not shut down...Imo 75-80% chance

2- If it does it doesn't last more than a week...I can see it going longer if the "military gets paid" bills that are currently pending pass, but still no longer than 2 weeks, it puts a ridic drag on the economy for the Federal Government to be closed, and no one wants that...all that's going on now is brinkmanship

Last edited by kimoser22; 04-04-2011 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 04-04-2011, 11:20 AM   #20
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

I like how the biggest drain on the budget is the military, but they'll still get funded, lmao.
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Old 04-04-2011, 11:23 AM   #21
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

My favorite thing is the claim that if they don't increase the debt ceiling the US will default on its debt. Not. Debt service is currently a few hundred billion out of a nearly $4T budget. They will cut senior citizens' dog food rations before they will miss a penny of debt service.
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Old 04-04-2011, 11:24 AM   #22
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Borodog View Post
My favorite thing is the claim that if they don't increase the debt ceiling the US will default on its debt.
Even if true, is this really a bad thing?
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Old 04-04-2011, 11:24 AM   #23
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

NIMO.
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Old 04-04-2011, 12:19 PM   #24
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

-1.7%, that would be a stimulus in the UK.

Did this happen before with Clinton and Newt?
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Old 04-04-2011, 12:53 PM   #25
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Re: Government Shutdown Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Borodog View Post
My favorite thing is the claim that if they don't increase the debt ceiling the US will default on its debt. Not. Debt service is currently a few hundred billion out of a nearly $4T budget. They will cut senior citizens' dog food rations before they will miss a penny of debt service.
QE2 can handle that easily. It's political theater like you stated and it's also something the media likes to hype in my view.
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