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Old 04-18-2017, 09:32 PM   #26
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
53.9% with 98,800 votes in. Really has to be hoping for a max of 150K turnout.

Interestingly, other Dem candidates only have a combined 0.9%.
Not suprising, Dems dig a good job of getting the word out that a vote for anyone other than Ossof was a vote for the republicans.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:40 PM   #27
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

At 118k votes in Ossoff down to 50.8, just got massacred by high election day turnout. At this rate it won't even be a sweat. He's barely doing better than Clinton in Cobb and DeKalb.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:43 PM   #28
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Of course. Once they ran those Al Jazeera ads, it was gg Ossoff.

The GOP's naked racism will never fail to be rewarded.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:43 PM   #29
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Likely about another 20 minutes until we're in garbage time unless Fulton Co somehow comes through. At least Cobb Co is almost off the board.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:44 PM   #30
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

dems are either gonna get the message don't bother in red areas or they need to do more than just run on anti trump.

ofc I expect their response is door #1.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:46 PM   #31
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Just got a favorable dump, back up to 51%
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:47 PM   #32
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Anderson Cooper just showed numbers from Edison Research with 52% of the vote in and Ossoff up to 53.9% (53,298).

However, the NYT numbers show 40% in and he's at 60,319 votes and 50.8%. Somehow, he's got fewer votes and a higher percentage on the Edison numbers?

LOLCNN?
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:47 PM   #33
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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dems are either gonna get the message don't bother in red areas or they need to do more than just run on anti trump.

ofc I expect their response is door #1.
That Kansas seat was close, though. Really you have to separate out all the rich surbanites who will ALWAYS vote GOP no matter what from the rural people who you might be able to persuade.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:47 PM   #34
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Dude didnt run on antiTrump. He basically ran on generic optimistic platitudes. He sucked, but bro GOP led by ****ing Price just tried to push through a universally reviled healthcare plan that would've further enriched millionaires. This **** shouldnt be hard.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:49 PM   #35
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Just got a favorable dump, back up to 51%
Not that favorable, it was DeKalb nearly closing out, and while the bump increased his total it dropped his DeKalb vote, he's now just 0.5 percent ahead of Clinton there, which isn't close to where he needed to be(Clinton got 46.8%). He needs to hope he overperformed her by a lot in Fulton.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:53 PM   #36
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

I know plenty of people who will vote R regardless and no amount of $ or logic or even if they ran on a platform of concentration camps will ever change that. D has nowhere close to that level of blind support. Ossoff is gonna need everyone to vote him again for the runoff + the other dem votes+ a few independents and some R's not turnout b/c their candidate isn't the nom. Possible but tough.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:04 PM   #37
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

DeKalb all in, he beat Clinton by 1.6%, Cobb 88% in and he's outperforming her by 1.7% there, so probably like 48.5 or so when everything is in? Tough to see what would cause Fulton to have a different shift than the other two.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:06 PM   #38
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Not that favorable, it was DeKalb nearly closing out, and while the bump increased his total it dropped his DeKalb vote, he's now just 0.5 percent ahead of Clinton there, which isn't close to where he needed to be(Clinton got 46.8%). He needs to hope he overperformed her by a lot in Fulton.
Dekalb entirely in, he outperformed clinton by 1.6 percent. In Cobb he is outperforming clinton by 2.7 with 88 percent. For some reason very little of Fulton is in, but if he outperforms clinton by something like 3.5-3.7 percent he breaks 50. If not he does not.

Edit: 1.7,. Not 2.7
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:08 PM   #39
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

I just hope if he doesn't get it that it isn't so close that the other idiots stealing D votes wouldn't have put him over the top, looks like about 0.8% of the vote is going to non-Ossoff Ds
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:09 PM   #40
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Can we lolJudsonHill for a moment? Dude was a State Senator, but was required to step down to run for Congress. He's not even going to make the runoff.

(In the meantime, Democrat Christine Triebsch has 24.4% of the vote in the State Senate race with Republican Kay Kirkpatrick next with 21.36%. I assume this is a runoff situation, too, but I haven't heard much about this race.)
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:10 PM   #41
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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I just hope if he doesn't get it that it isn't so close that the other idiots stealing D votes wouldn't have put him over the top, looks like about 0.8% of the vote is going to non-Ossoff Ds
Yes, if this is the outcome (which is pretty likely at this point, let's be honest), I'm going to lose my mind.

By pretty likely, I mean like maybe as high as a 30-40% chance of Ossoff + Other Dems = 50% + 1.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:11 PM   #42
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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I just hope if he doesn't get it that it isn't so close that the other idiots stealing D votes wouldn't have put him over the top, looks like about 0.8% of the vote is going to non-Ossoff Ds
I was thinking that, too, but at the same time there were obviously going to be other Democratic candidates and they were obviously going to get some votes.

Maybe I'm still a little surprised that they pulled more votes than just their friends and family. You'd think Democrats would have learned from the Presidential election that at least right now, you need to band together.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:12 PM   #43
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Also, CNN's vote totals match the NYT, but CNN is showing 72% of the vote in and NYT is showing 53%, which is a huge difference when you're at 50.4% hoping to HOOLLLLLLLLD ONE TIME!
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:16 PM   #44
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

So Ossoff "won" my precinct, but with just 42.2% of the vote, it looks like my precinct is still quite red.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:17 PM   #45
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Yes, if this is the outcome (which is pretty likely at this point, let's be honest), I'm going to lose my mind.

By pretty likely, I mean like maybe as high as a 30-40% chance of Ossoff + Other Dems = 50% + 1.
Can't think of it like that. If those 500 people aren't voting Ossof now, they probably were just going to stay home if their buddy wasn't running.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:18 PM   #46
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Also, CNN's vote totals match the NYT, but CNN is showing 72% of the vote in and NYT is showing 53%, which is a huge difference when you're at 50.4% hoping to HOOLLLLLLLLD ONE TIME!
Are they different vote counts? Or is one percentage vote and the other percentage precincts ?
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:20 PM   #47
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Are they different vote counts? Or is one percentage vote and the other percentage precincts ?
The total votes for each candidate are the same, and the percentage of the vote each candidate has are the same, but the percentage of the vote in is different. The NYT is using precincts, but the CNN one doesn't specify... So maybe they're doing percentage of the vote in? (Which would be an estimate.)
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:22 PM   #48
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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Can't think of it like that. If those 500 people aren't voting Ossof now, they probably were just going to stay home if their buddy wasn't running.
Staying home would have been better for Ossoff, too. Their votes count in the total of which he needs 50% and 1.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:22 PM   #49
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

The thing that sucks is that we're competing for these seats where we're expected to lose by 10+. These narrow losses are clear accomplishments, but it's hard to envision their effect on the Dem base as anything other than demoralization.
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Old 04-18-2017, 10:31 PM   #50
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Regardless of the outcome, nice to see the enthusiasm out of people in a non-November election. I voted in a May special election in 2015 where 10.9% of registered voters voted. Mind you, this is in an area where your polling place is never more than 1.5 miles from you and everyone owns a car.
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