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Old 04-18-2017, 08:35 PM   #1
HastenDan
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Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

The polls are closed and the votes are being tallied. Trump himself chirping about Ossof could only have embiggened the chance of flip.

After hovering around 40-42% all day, Ossof is gaining momentum in the betting market.

Will he clear 50%?! Will it go to a runoff and he takes it anyway? Things are getting spicy.

How many illegals were bussed in by Soros? Tune into @realDonaldTrump at 6am to find out.



Current market as of 8:35 est.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:39 PM   #2
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Bringing this post from the Trump thread...

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
122K people voted in the Kansas special election couple weeks back.
326K voted in the standard GA-6 election in November, which obviously sees increased turnout b/c it's a Presidential year.

How many do we figure we get here? 175K, 200K? Gotta figure 100K votes for Ossoff seals 50+%, no?
For comparison, KS-04 had 275k votes in its 2016 election, so it lost slightly over half its votes, but it also wasn't fought as hard as this one will be, so I'd guess GA-06 loses a smaller amount of its turnout versus 2016 than KS-04 did. 200k might be reasonable.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:40 PM   #3
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Looking like Ossoff gonna beat the 42, but for those wanting over 50, gonna be a long HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:42 PM   #4
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

My guess from the other thread was around 50% turn out. So 115k would lock it up. Cmon you skinny little nobody. Do it for the salty Trump tears.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:45 PM   #5
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Quote:
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My guess from the other thread was around 50% turn out. So 115k would lock it up. Cmon you skinny little nobody. Do it for the salty Trump tears.
61.5 with 3 percent reporting. I assume thats early votes though whic always skews democratic.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:45 PM   #6
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Gray might still pass Handel.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:47 PM   #7
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

NYT dude is live tweeting.

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Old 04-18-2017, 08:47 PM   #8
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
61.5 with 3 percent reporting. I assume thats early votes though whic always skews democratic.
You're behind.

http://results.enr.clarityelections....Web02-state/#/
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:48 PM   #9
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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61.5 with 3 percent reporting. I assume thats early votes though whic always skews democratic.
60.6 with 4 percent reporting.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:49 PM   #10
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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60.6 with 4 percent reporting.
Hooooooollllldddd
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:54 PM   #11
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Per Nate Cohn, looking good for Ossof if current trends hold.
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:57 PM   #12
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
Per Nate Cohn, looking good for Ossof if current trends hold.
Bad Nate tho
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Old 04-18-2017, 08:57 PM   #13
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

damn, should've bet it, it was looking good for Ossoff when Trump made 3 tweets about it. He would've just made one if Ossoff was basically locked into 42 or so.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:00 PM   #14
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

It was absurd how free the money was on predictit shorting Dan Moody. Anyone else get in on that giveaway? The conspiracy theory was his campaign was propping up his price. His price and volume made no sense for weeks. He traded as the leader and by far the highest volume for absolutely no reason.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:02 PM   #15
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

I have small Ossoff outright win today position, sold most of it in the last hour though. I still think this most likely goes to a runoff, but Ossoff has a decent chance of winning a runoff too.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:13 PM   #16
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Ton of money in on Handel on Predictit, she's up to 54
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:15 PM   #17
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Down to 56% with 84,832 votes in. Turnout estimates ranged from 140k to 200k, Ossof now has to be rooting for the low end of that now. Cohn predicts 190k turnout, Ossoff at 48%
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:16 PM   #18
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Bah, oh well
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:24 PM   #19
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf View Post
Down to 56% with 84,832 votes in. Turnout estimates ranged from 140k to 200k, Ossof now has to be rooting for the low end of that now. Cohn predicts 190k turnout, Ossoff at 48%
Gg ya tried son.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:26 PM   #20
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf View Post
Down to 56% with 84,832 votes in. Turnout estimates ranged from 140k to 200k, Ossof now has to be rooting for the low end of that now. Cohn predicts 190k turnout, Ossoff at 48%
Cohn gives the caveat that there is a huge MoE on that 48 percent. Not over yet.

Edit: Ok now it fell again, down to 53 percent. ****ing dems and their great early vote numbers followed by abysmal election day turnout, every damn time, so sick.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:27 PM   #21
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Whack AF. Not sure why any are hopeful about the runoff. If anything, he performs worse.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:29 PM   #22
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

I mean I think turnout was really good, just too many mouth breathers that vote GOP no matter what. Hard to overcome that.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:29 PM   #23
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Yeah he's already cannibalized all the other D votes, the other D candidates have <1000 votes combined
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:30 PM   #24
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

53.9% with 98,800 votes in. Really has to be hoping for a max of 150K turnout.

Interestingly, other Dem candidates only have a combined 0.9%.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:31 PM   #25
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Re: Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

Ray of hope, Ossof winning Dekalb and Fulton counties, losing Cobb County. Fulton only 16 percent in. Cobb 37 percent in. Fulton county population 1 million, cobb county population 700k. So more fulton democrat votes to report left likely than Cobb republican votes.
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