Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel. - Politics and Economics

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Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

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04-18-2017 , 08:35 PM

HastenDan

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Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 1,711

The polls are closed and the votes are being tallied. Trump himself chirping about Ossof could only have embiggened the chance of flip.

After hovering around 40-42% all day, Ossof is gaining momentum in the betting market.

Will he clear 50%?! Will it go to a runoff and he takes it anyway? Things are getting spicy.

How many illegals were bussed in by Soros? Tune into @realDonaldTrump at 6am to find out.

Current market as of 8:35 est.

04-18-2017 , 08:39 PM

goofyballer

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Bringing this post from the Trump thread...

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

122K people voted in the Kansas special election couple weeks back.
326K voted in the standard GA-6 election in November, which obviously sees increased turnout b/c it's a Presidential year.

How many do we figure we get here? 175K, 200K? Gotta figure 100K votes for Ossoff seals 50+%, no?

For comparison, KS-04 had 275k votes in its 2016 election, so it lost slightly over half its votes, but it also wasn't fought as hard as this one will be, so I'd guess GA-06 loses a smaller amount of its turnout versus 2016 than KS-04 did. 200k might be reasonable.

04-18-2017 , 08:40 PM

wheatrich

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Looking like Ossoff gonna beat the 42, but for those wanting over 50, gonna be a long HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD.

04-18-2017 , 08:42 PM

AllTheCheese

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My guess from the other thread was around 50% turn out. So 115k would lock it up. Cmon you skinny little nobody. Do it for the salty Trump tears.

04-18-2017 , 08:45 PM

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

My guess from the other thread was around 50% turn out. So 115k would lock it up. Cmon you skinny little nobody. Do it for the salty Trump tears.

61.5 with 3 percent reporting. I assume thats early votes though whic always skews democratic.

04-18-2017 , 08:45 PM

ye90

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 263

Gray might still pass Handel.

04-18-2017 , 08:47 PM

zikzak

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NYT dude is live tweeting.

04-18-2017 , 08:47 PM

AllTheCheese

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

61.5 with 3 percent reporting. I assume thats early votes though whic always skews democratic.

You're behind.

http://results.enr.clarityelections....Web02-state/#/

04-18-2017 , 08:48 PM

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

61.5 with 3 percent reporting. I assume thats early votes though whic always skews democratic.

60.6 with 4 percent reporting.

04-18-2017 , 08:49 PM

#10

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

60.6 with 4 percent reporting.

Hooooooollllldddd

04-18-2017 , 08:54 PM

#11

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Per Nate Cohn, looking good for Ossof if current trends hold.

04-18-2017 , 08:57 PM

#12

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

Per Nate Cohn, looking good for Ossof if current trends hold.

Bad Nate tho

04-18-2017 , 08:57 PM

#13

wheatrich

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damn, should've bet it, it was looking good for Ossoff when Trump made 3 tweets about it. He would've just made one if Ossoff was basically locked into 42 or so.

04-18-2017 , 09:00 PM

#14

m_reed05

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It was absurd how free the money was on predictit shorting Dan Moody. Anyone else get in on that giveaway? The conspiracy theory was his campaign was propping up his price. His price and volume made no sense for weeks. He traded as the leader and by far the highest volume for absolutely no reason.

04-18-2017 , 09:02 PM

#15

m_reed05

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I have small Ossoff outright win today position, sold most of it in the last hour though. I still think this most likely goes to a runoff, but Ossoff has a decent chance of winning a runoff too.

04-18-2017 , 09:13 PM

#16

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

Ton of money in on Handel on Predictit, she's up to 54

04-18-2017 , 09:15 PM

#17

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Down to 56% with 84,832 votes in. Turnout estimates ranged from 140k to 200k, Ossof now has to be rooting for the low end of that now. Cohn predicts 190k turnout, Ossoff at 48%

04-18-2017 , 09:16 PM

#18

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

Bah, oh well

04-18-2017 , 09:24 PM

#19

fatkid

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Down to 56% with 84,832 votes in. Turnout estimates ranged from 140k to 200k, Ossof now has to be rooting for the low end of that now. Cohn predicts 190k turnout, Ossoff at 48%

Gg ya tried son.

04-18-2017 , 09:26 PM

#20

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Down to 56% with 84,832 votes in. Turnout estimates ranged from 140k to 200k, Ossof now has to be rooting for the low end of that now. Cohn predicts 190k turnout, Ossoff at 48%

Cohn gives the caveat that there is a huge MoE on that 48 percent. Not over yet.

Edit: Ok now it fell again, down to 53 percent. ****ing dems and their great early vote numbers followed by abysmal election day turnout, every damn time, so sick.

04-18-2017 , 09:27 PM

#21

AllTheCheese

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Whack AF. Not sure why any are hopeful about the runoff. If anything, he performs worse.

04-18-2017 , 09:29 PM

#22

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

I mean I think turnout was really good, just too many mouth breathers that vote GOP no matter what. Hard to overcome that.

04-18-2017 , 09:29 PM

#23

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Yeah he's already cannibalized all the other D votes, the other D candidates have <1000 votes combined

04-18-2017 , 09:30 PM

#24

2OutsNoProb

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53.9% with 98,800 votes in. Really has to be hoping for a max of 150K turnout.

Interestingly, other Dem candidates only have a combined 0.9%.

04-18-2017 , 09:31 PM

#25

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Ray of hope, Ossof winning Dekalb and Fulton counties, losing Cobb County. Fulton only 16 percent in. Cobb 37 percent in. Fulton county population 1 million, cobb county population 700k. So more fulton democrat votes to report left likely than Cobb republican votes.

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