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01-21-2016 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
as poverty is eradicated across the globe, humans are economically equipped to deal with problems as they may arise.

there's a commonly held perception among alarmists that poor countries are going to be ill suited to deal with climate change, yet the existence of poor countries by mid-century seems unlikely (absent major wars).
That bastion of alarmist tree-hugging liberals known as The Pentagon says:

“Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problems — such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions — that threaten domestic stability in a number of countries.”

So your poverty eradication wishcasting seems to be under direct threat.
01-21-2016 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
That bastion of alarmist tree-hugging liberals known as The Pentagon says:

“Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problems — such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions — that threaten domestic stability in a number of countries.”

So your poverty eradication wishcasting seems to be under direct threat.
Obama's Pentagon would say that. *eyeroll*
01-21-2016 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
That bastion of alarmist tree-hugging liberals known as The Pentagon says:

“Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problems — such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions — that threaten domestic stability in a number of countries.”

So your poverty eradication wishcasting seems to be under direct threat.
I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but government institutions like to justify reasons for expanded funding. Which is not to say that warnings like that should not be considered carefully, but instead be put in the proper context.

Poverty is going to be eradicated far faster than the slow-moving effects of climate change.

Last edited by domer2; 01-21-2016 at 01:10 PM.
01-21-2016 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
I see domer has also moved on from "earth's not warming" to "NBD".
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Where have I posted that the earth is not warming?
Any progress on this suzzer?

Surely you aren't just making up random stuff again.
01-21-2016 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Gonna try bumping this for domer again. Every time I try to get a response, he slinks away:



You can refer back to the climate change thread for context.
Still no response. Standard.
01-21-2016 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but government institutions like to justify reasons for expanded funding. Which is not to say that warnings like that should not be considered carefully, but instead be put in the proper context.

Poverty is going to be eradicated far faster than the slow-moving effects of climate change.
well, you may not be aware of this, but the military has no problems getting funding in this country. they don't need to jump on the climate change bandwagon for funding.
01-21-2016 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ccotenj
well, you may not be aware of this, but the military has no problems getting funding in this country. they don't need to jump on the climate change bandwagon for funding.
May want to read the news once in awhile. Military spending has been decreasing the past few years, as too has the number of active duty military. Not that any of that has anything to do with climate change, but your point here that they don't need to justify their budgets is completely wrong.

Just start with a simple question, is it in their self-interest to say that the world will become politically volatile due to climate change? Obviously yes. A potentially violent world needs a strong military.

This does not mean that one should be dismissive of their predictions, merely leery of their bias, which may result in exaggerated threats.
01-21-2016 , 01:55 PM
I still don't get how poverty reduction relates to global warming. Are the newly less poors going to come up with the idea to stop it or something?
01-21-2016 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Alarmists play up the problem with the specter of massive suffering in the future (e.g. your post), which always discounts technological advancement, poverty reduction, and the possibility that they're wrong.

Sea level rise is incredibly unlikely to have much of a negative impact, for three big reasons: (1) it is very slow, (2) poverty is being eradicated very rapidly, and (3) protecting a city is not technologically challenging nor prohibitively expensive.
You should go Google about the flooding in Britain to find out about how this is a problem. We spent millions on flood defences for a normal decade then got a once on 25 years storm event like two years later. We are like the masters of getting rained on and we can't effectively defend against it. Most of the planet will be ****ed unless they spend an absolute fortune on defences, which won't protect areas not protected where food is grown and people still live. You think this is easy, go as New Orleans how effective flood defences are.

BTW a one inch rise on average every decade is huge. Go research what an average is. Hint, it isn't an inch more all the time.

Last edited by [Phill]; 01-21-2016 at 02:06 PM.
01-21-2016 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALLTheCookies
I still don't get how poverty reduction relates to global warming. Are the newly less poors going to come up with the idea to stop it or something?
The former poors buy yachts and sail around the ocean where their island nations used to be.
01-21-2016 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
May want to read the news once in awhile. Military spending has been decreasing the past few years, as too has the number of active duty military. Not that any of that has anything to do with climate change, but your point here that they don't need to justify their budgets is completely wrong.

Just start with a simple question, is it in their self-interest to say that the world will become politically volatile due to climate change? Obviously yes. A potentially violent world needs a strong military.

This does not mean that one should be dismissive of their predictions, merely leery of their bias, which may result in exaggerated threats.
read some more news, like where congress is forcing them to take and spend money that they don't want to.

that statement from the pentagon doesn't mean what you want it to mean. it is an assessment of future potential threats. which is kinda one of the things that is their job.

c'mon. this is usa#1. if our military wants money, they'll get money, they'd have no reason to use climate change scare tactics.

especially since the party that would happily hand our entire gdp over to the military are climate change deniers. it would make no sense for the military to jump on the bandwagon for financial reasons. that dog don't hunt.
01-21-2016 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALLTheCookies
I still don't get how poverty reduction relates to global warming. Are the newly less poors going to come up with the idea to stop it or something?
If the oceans were going to rise 6 inches next year, a very significant percentage of the world would be ill equipped to deal with it. There would be complete pandemonium, obv.

But given that that rise in sea levels is likely to continue at a rate of a little over 1 inch every 10 years, nations that right now could not deal with it will be far better off over time as their countries industrialize and become wealthier.

Human wealth is increasing far faster than the progression of the potential dangers of climate change.
01-21-2016 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
You should go Google about the flooding in Britain to find out about how this is a problem. We spent millions on flood defences for a normal decade then got a once on 25 years storm event like two years later. We are like the masters of getting rained on and we can't effectively defend against it. Most of the planet will be ****ed unless they spend an absolute fortune on defences, which won't protect areas not protected where food is grown and people still live. You think this is easy, go as New Orleans how effective flood defences are.

BTW a one inch rise on average every decade is huge. Go research what an average is. Hint, it isn't an inch more all the time.
building "flood defenses for the cities" against rising ocean levels is about a billion billion billion times less rational than building a mexican wall. breaking news: the ocean will win.

besides the tiny little fact that there's a ****load more to the coasts than the cities.

and obviously more thought needs to be put into that if someone thinks it would be "not technologically challenging or expensive".

oh well, **** it, i'll be dead by then anyway, right?
01-21-2016 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
You should go Google about the flooding in Britain to find out about how this is a problem. We spent millions on flood defences for a normal decade then got a once on 25 years storm event like two years later. We are like the masters of getting rained on and we can't effectively defend against it. Most of the planet will be ****ed unless they spend an absolute fortune on defences, which won't protect areas not protected where food is grown and people still live. You think this is easy, go as New Orleans how effective flood defences are.

BTW a one inch rise on average every decade is huge. Go research what an average is. Hint, it isn't an inch more all the time.
The examples you cite are weather not climate. Our food supplies are not in jeopardy by sea level rise (or by anything for that matter).

On your second point, the only time there is even slight fluctuation is during large ENSO events (like this year's El Nino).



Sea level rise has been slow and predictable, and a significant portion of it is likely to be natural as we continue to shake off the last ice age (sea levels during the last interglacial period peaked at 20+ feet higher than they are today).

Quote:
Originally Posted by ccotenj
read some more news, like where congress is forcing them to take and spend money that they don't want to.

that statement from the pentagon doesn't mean what you want it to mean. it is an assessment of future potential threats. which is kinda one of the things that is their job.

c'mon. this is usa#1. if our military wants money, they'll get money, they'd have no reason to use climate change scare tactics.

especially since the party that would happily hand our entire gdp over to the military are climate change deniers. it would make no sense for the military to jump on the bandwagon for financial reasons. that dog don't hunt.
I think you're very naive about Washington and the Pentagon.
01-21-2016 , 03:19 PM
I live in New Orleans and flood defenses are hugely effective when built properly. Hope this helps.
01-21-2016 , 04:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2

Sea level rise has been slow and predictable, and a significant portion of it is likely to be natural as we continue to shake off the last ice age (sea levels during the last interglacial period peaked at 20+ feet higher than they are today).

01-21-2016 , 04:38 PM
How about that lead poisoning in Flint?
01-21-2016 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Where have I posted that the earth is not warming?
Well about every post in this thread circa 2013 you argue against temperature data. Do you just assume peopel are too lazy to look things up? Or you really just don't care about your credibility either way I'm guessing. Your job is just to make noise.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...l#post40061926

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
I like how you pick the one proxy out of 10 that shows the least modern warming. Well played.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record



Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
click on and examine this image that shows temperature data graphed against climate model predictions.

focus in on 2001 onward

http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-c...rison_2020.png

there has been a 13 year hiatus by any objective measure

Additionally, the Met Office's newest climate model (a short-term 5 year model) projects temperature out to 2018 and forecasts that the "hiatus" will last until 2018 at least (the blue line in this graph): http://climateaudit.files.wordpress....mparison11.png
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
i love how you say i selectively picked endpoints but i picked a negative ENSO year for your benefit. i guess i could start with a positive enso year of 1998, but that would be misleading imho. can't win with you. every year i pick is going to be "selective" when the fact of the matter is that the 13 most recent years in temperature data have shown no trend whatsoever.

also gotta love just randomly pasting graphs (wrongly) onto other graphs. your years don't line up properly.

plus the temperature trends are 36 month smoothed to attempt to remove ENSO signals (1998 should've tipped you off to that, in addition to it being written in clear letters)

either way you slice it, the hiatus is real, significant, acknowledged, and demonstrates a clear problem for the accuracy of climate modeling going forward

come to terms with your science, math, and statistics denial/ignorance; it is unbecoming
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
So with 2001 being an negative ENSO year, you would say that my choice of that was to "start counting with El Nino inflated years"? I mean you clearly are just talking out of your ass.

Secondly, 2012 in your graph is deep blue, but it was a slightly positive ENSO year. That's even just taking for granted that you are randomly pasting graphs with completely different Y-Axis measurements directly on top of one another.

I'd say that the graph does a fairly great job of removing ENSO signals. You may want to re-look at your own Frankenstein creation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
what exactly is there to predict about ENSO that would shift in the long-term

its a naturally occurring oscillation. this oscillation is already baked in to climate models; you can see this when you look at the hindcasts of the 80s and 90s.

plus the idea that negative ENSO has suppressed temperature in the past decade presupposes that it wasn't positive ENSO that was instead enhancing temperature in the previous two decades. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ts.gif

climate scientists really tripping over themselves to chalk up the hiatus to everything but the simplest conclusion: that there were/are lolhorrible assumptions about climate sensitivity
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Without (old) Yamal or Mann's bristlecone pines, there is no spike relative to the MWP.

Please feel free to post a proxy reconstruction that does not feature either one and goes back to the year 1000 with proper resolution to discern a MWP.

If there are "hundreds"(!!!), should be easy to locate.



gjge: http://climateaudit.files.wordpress....k_excerpt2.png



Sounds perfect!



I guess that exponential growth is just right around the corner. Any month now we're gonna start.



By what physical process would this occur on a "very, very bad" scale? You can't just mash together random words, make them sound scary, and expect to get it past readers who have a clue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
It really warms the cockles of my heart that hiatus denial appears to be the new tenet of climate alarmism.

A cotton pickin shame that it would take multiple decades for climate bets to pay off, or I'd be unloading my entire roll, Presidential election style.
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Lol. So how many years do you want to use? 10? 20? 30? 40?

Go hog wild: http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-c...0Years_ar5.png

Every single starting point is way below the models, and many outside of the 95% confidence intervals (i.e. the MODELS REJECT!)
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Wow! What a recovery!



The problem with your argument is that we've seen "recovery" after "recovery" and the trend remains negative and the loss is accelerating. "Skeptics" were amazed at the "recovery" of 2008, but just 4 years later we shattered the record for sea ice minimum. Again.
But other than those several hundred posts, no - you've always conceded the earth is warming.
01-21-2016 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
I think about a dozen of us predicted the GOP stance would shift from 1) not happening to 2) happening but we don't know why to 3) happening and we know why but it's too late to do anything except mitigation. We are in phase 2 right now.
Looks like we've moved on to stage 3 eh domer?
01-21-2016 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Well about every post in this thread circa 2013 you argue against temperature data.
There are no posts itt circa 2013.
01-21-2016 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Well about every post in this thread circa 2013 you argue against temperature data. Do you just assume peopel are too lazy to look things up? Or you really just don't care about your credibility either way I'm guessing. Your job is just to make noise.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...l#post40061926

But other than those several hundred posts, no - you've always conceded the earth is warming.
In zero of those posts, or any other posts for that matter, do I say that the Earth is not warming. In fact the very definition of the word "hiatus" implies just the opposite.

I think the problem is you are way out of your depth on this topic, and have no clue what my position is, so instead make up random stuff to malign me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALLTheCookies
We're in an interglacial period, bro. Sea levels are extremely high across the globe relative to glaciation, and would likely slowly get higher through the end of the holocene were humans not here.
01-21-2016 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALLTheCookies
whataya gonna do?

domer, we are IN an ice age, and have been for about 2.5 million years or so. and going by ice core records over the last 500,000 years, it very likely that it should be getting colder now as the next glaciation cycle of the current ice age starts anew. but it isn't.

it is possible, but highly unlikely (previous ice ages have lasted significantly longer than 2.5 million years), that we are coming out of the current ice age.

it is much more likely, given the evidence that we have in hand, that we as humans are having a non-negligible effect upon the climate.

fwiw, the effect of melting ice causes other consequences than sea levels rising. that's where "weather" comes into the equation.

eta. i give up.
01-21-2016 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
In zero of those posts, or any other posts for that matter, do I say that the Earth is not warming. In fact the very definition of the word "hiatus" implies just the opposite.

I think the problem is you are way out of your depth on this topic, and have no clue what my position is, so instead make up random stuff to malign me.



We're in an interglacial period, bro. Sea levels are extremely high across the globe relative to glaciation, and would likely slowly get higher through the end of the holocene were humans not here.
Lol, yeah, you used the term hiatus, but it was being used to mock global warming proponents.
01-21-2016 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ccotenj
whataya gonna do?

domer, we are IN an ice age, and have been for about 2.5 million years or so. and going by ice core records over the last 500,000 years, it very likely that it should be getting colder now as the next glaciation cycle of the current ice age starts anew. but it isn't.

it is possible, but highly unlikely (previous ice ages have lasted significantly longer than 2.5 million years), that we are coming out of the current ice age.

it is much more likely, given the evidence that we have in hand, that we as humans are having a non-negligible effect upon the climate.

fwiw, the effect of melting ice causes other consequences than sea levels rising. that's where "weather" comes into the equation.

eta. i give up.
the previous glaciation (a little over 10,000 years ago) is often called the ice age, including by the IPCC, as opposed to our current interglacial period called the holocene

and yes, when you zoom out, we're in a long-term ice age; the interglacial periods where glaciers retreat and biodiversity flourishes are generally very short in geological terms.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Money2Burn
Lol, yeah, you used the term hiatus, but it was being used to mock global warming proponents.
A large misconception is that climate models that forecast the future are part & parcel with global warming. People who don't know much about the topic, including apparently yourself and definitely suzzer, conflate disbelief in climate models with disbelief in global warming.
01-21-2016 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
There are no posts itt circa 2013.
The thread I quoted from. Sorry wasn't clear.

      
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