Here are a couple of versions of models that are coming out of academia.

The first is a state-by-state method. http://polmeth.wustl.edu/media/Paper...spollMay12.pdf

The second is more in the tradition of national models based on macroeconomic factors. This one is a bread an peace model where the two factors are personal income growth per capita and battlefield deaths per capita. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsAr...31July2012.pdf

Romney just gonna slowly cruise to a loss it seems.

Interest seems to have waned, but today I figured out a good way to translate state win %s into national outcomes. I'm pretty pumped about it. Still working out a few kinks.