http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...ushpmg00000009

OK, here's your chance to show your [political] clairvoyance. The vote in the House of Representatives to either pass the Republican bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act (i.e. "Obamacare") or reject the repeal effort is scheduled for Thursday night. As the above Huff Post article indicates, members of the Freedom Caucus - including my own Congressman Mo Brooks - think the repeal bill is going down in flames - it will not pass. Such an outcome would be a major rebuke to House Speaker Paul Ryan who has invested a great deal of his own prestige (and political capital) on getting this repeal bill passed and sent to the Senate.

The speaker does not normally bring major votes like this to the floor unless his whip (vote counter) has assured him that the bill will pass. The members of the Freedom Caucus are pretty confident the votes aren't there ... So, given all that, this sets up the political equivalent of the showdown at the OK Corral - somebody is going to wind up with egg on their face. Will it be Speaker Ryan or members of the Freedom Caucus like my Congressman, Mo Brooks?

How do the (very astute) political prognosticators here on 2+2 predict the vote will go? (How do you think your representative will vote?) I think the GOP repeal bill will fail, but that's more a reflection of my liberal bias rather than a certainty as to the outcome - and everybody on here knows how wrong I've been in the past on these kind of calls ...

Whatever the case, it will be interesting watching the (probably live) vote from the House floor Thursday night.

It will pass easily because Trump wants it, and Republicans love the taste of boot.

I'm torn. The GOP are ultimately Trump lackeys and so I can appreciate they'll all fall into line when Daddy says it's time to settle down and do what he says.

OTOH I have the vague suspicion there's precisely no technocratic competence at all with either the Trump Admin or the House GOP so it wouldn't surprise me if it's just total chaotic mess and they don't have the votes and no one has even bothered counting.

It shall not pass.

I would be surprised if they held the vote Thursday without knowing 100% that they have enough votes locked in. But given the utter incompetence in Washington right now maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

Don't think the Senate passes it anyway.

any prediction markets out there for this?

It'll pass the House then die in the Senate so Ryan can deflect blame.

This, it will def pass the House but not the Senate without major changes.

Wow only 35% on Predictit? FREE MONEY

trump will go after anyone who says no pretty hard. There's a few senators who have enough spine to push back tho, but still I'd be surprised if it didn't get through the house.

Which is great because he's such a dumb **** he doesn't realize there are probably a few Rs who could benefit from voting against this because of their constituents. They can afford 18 or 19 Rs voting no to help 2018 campaigns but it's too important for 45 to be able to crow about it passing unanimously among Republicans (or whatever his idiotic reason for threatening to blast congress critters who vote against it is) for them to allow it.

It passes the House. I hope I'm wrong.

Cotton reiterated today it has no chance in the Senate without major changes

The vote will go whichever way the Russians want it to.

I'm just amused that as it stands today you have a horrible bill being torn in two opposite directions. Ironically the strongest force of opposition in the Republican Party are those who want the healthcare bill to be made substantially worse for American citizens.

I think there is a good chance the house passes whatever bill the end up with but still won't have any real shot in the senate and a compromise bill won't pass both anytime soon.

Right now I could see it passing or failing on Thursday and would think it is nearly a toss-up right now. It certainly would make Trump annoying for a month and his supporters as well. But it won't change the fact that the bill is a fundamental disaster in terms of delivering real and affordable healthcare to the American Public which is actually one really big issue for Trump supporters. Trump is such a dupe though it is easy for Ryan and others to convince him this is the best bill for him.

In terms of exposing the republicans the best case scenario would be for the Current bill to fly through the house and then senate so it could be implemented
. However if that did happen ANY actual changes would be delayed or perceived to be delayed until after the mid-terms.

I just want to circle back to the fact that the strongest opposition in the house to this bill is from people who want it to provide less coverage to less people. State Governors and State apparatus are really the contingent that want it to be improved (for republicans). But those have fewer numbers in the house but is also why things get much worse in the Senate for any version of this bill.

Will be interesting to see.

Although this:




https://mobile.twitter.com/TopherSpi...59482083495943

https://twitter.com/igorvolsky/statu...83147604967424

The GOP will fall in line and they'll all vote for it in the end because they're spineless twits when push comes to shove.

This won't be the first time Trump bullies the GOP into doing what he wants them to do. They'll be pussy-whipped from here on out.

I say it passes. Too dangerous to go against your own party. They will annihilate the "traitors" in 2018.

Now is a great time to email your house representative, y'all.

Call, email, tweet them, visit their offices. The next 40 hours are of the utmost importance. Make your voice heard. This thing is not set in stone yet.

While I felt like it reached a toss up before I think after some shake out today that odds are unlikely it passes on Thursday.

As some noted traditionally Ryan would just pull the vote if it was not going to pass but I don't see how the current climate will allow for that. Trump would go bananas thinking he can just mind control votes. Both Ryan and Trump have so much relying on this and they only have themselves to blame for the timeframe this became a do-or-die issue.

One possibility is pulling the vote and explicitly saying it is rescheduled for early next week so trump can enjoy his golf diplomacy.

But I agree with above to contact reps and keep pushing this. A rejection or delay is a loss for trump and Ryan.

Seems like you should change the script for the freedom caucus guys to something focusing on how Trumpcare is just Obamacare Lite.

Keep. Calling.


https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...73955704213504

I agree that no version of this bill will pass Thursday. I'm trying to figure out whether or not either or both Trump and Ryan prefer to pull the bill to avoid the embarrassment of defeat or actually lose the vote to put even more pressure on the freedom caucus and other defectors.

Trump is Trump and wouldn't think twice about cuckolding Rs who dare to defy him, damn whatever political calculus may lay ahead. Ryan obviously has to be more practical in his machinations here, aware of the fact that the freedom caucus cost the previous speaker his job not so long ago.

I can't see whether or not come Thursday night, the Trump-Ryan alliance becomes strengthened in the face of resistance. Or maybe Ryan, who doesn't have the votes, shelves the bill and becomes the next target of an early morning unprecedential tweeetstorm.

Taniel doing yeoman's work whipping the votes:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/844384365270446081



https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/844387207830011904