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Old 06-12-2017, 06:09 AM   #7626
LektorAJ
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by hobbes9324 View Post
"The situation on the other side of the negotiations with the deal having to be checked by 27 countries, themselves also all governed by minority governments or multi-party coalitions is just as bad. "

Just for the education of an idiot 'Merican, who the **** thought that was a good idea? You set yourself up to have one bat**** crazy country hijack the entire EU if they decide it's a good idea - or until they get paid off in one way or another. Why not 2/3 or something?

MM MD
Pretty much nobody thinks its a good idea, but the alternatives are a "United States of Europe" which is unacceptable to the public in most countries, or to leave/break it up - which so far only the voters of the UK have chosen. Also it depends on the issue - over the years there has been a gradual increase the number of things individual countries can be out-voted on - it's now reached the point that it's close enough to the USE to be unacceptable to British people - though the man in the street mostly sees the physical manifestations such as the European flag, national anthem, currency etc. as signs that it seeks to be a rival to our own countries for allegiance, rather than the constitutional stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV View Post
There's a major difference in that most of those countries there is no reallistic expectation of any party holding a "do-as-we-please" type landslide majority. Stasis is built into their systems. So the politicians behave accordingly and tend to be more disciplined.
The UK Conservatives by contrast are extremely arrogant and disloyal, and naturally expect a permanent, gargantuan mandate. They have a working majority-a luxury for many euro parties, but the conservatives are already throwing a hissy fit.
I agree with this, though its also the media pushing the same view.

I think this quote from France provides a good counter-view:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40242531

"Socialist leader Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, who lost his seat in the first round, warned voters against giving LREM an absolute majority next Sunday.
He said it would result in "virtually no real opposition and we will have a National Assembly without any real counterbalance, without a democratic debate and not worthy of that name".

Last edited by LektorAJ; 06-12-2017 at 06:30 AM.
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Old 06-12-2017, 04:20 PM   #7627
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Re: Brexit Referendum

"There's a major difference in that most of those countries there is no reallistic expectation of any party holding a "do-as-we-please" type landslide majority. Stasis is built into their systems. So the politicians behave accordingly and tend to be more disciplined."

Yeah, that was probably true in the original version of the EU - but I'd argue that as it moved east and south, the do-as-we-please problem seems to have become a lot more likely. It just seems to me odd that one out of 28 or so members of a supposed Union can shut the machine off whenever they wish. But whatever.....as I said, I'm an idiot 'Merican. We have our own issues over here.....

MM MD
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Old 06-14-2017, 02:29 AM   #7628
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Re: Brexit Referendum

youre not even getting your trade deal with new zealand (until the eu does in a couple of years) http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKBN1942WH

what a waste this entire thing is
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Old 06-14-2017, 03:31 AM   #7629
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Oh God, if we get nothing else we need the ability to do trade deals independent of EU. If we don't, we are strapped tight to the EU until federalisation or failure.

Some politicians are right *****.
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Old 06-14-2017, 05:17 AM   #7630
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Your biggest trade deal will be with the EU.

You're strapped onto EU with or without EU membership.

Ability to negotiate independently of the EU is a fantasy. UK's biggest feature on the international is its gateway (especially financial) access to the much bigger EU market.
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Old 06-14-2017, 05:29 AM   #7631
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Re: Brexit Referendum

You don't need a trade deal to trade with a country.

We used to pay more to the EU than the tariffs we avoided.

A side effect of that is that local businesses were subsidising exporters (by paying a general tax that paid for the EU) - I doubt anyone would want that.

More here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...d-no-hardship/

Quote:
The Brexit-blockers’ new crie de coeur is the cataclysmic impact of leaving the EU with “no deal”, the dystopian wasteland the UK would become if we traded instead under “World Trade Organisation rules”. Such nostrums are self-serving nonsense; the latest mutation of “Project Fear”, spread by those with little understanding of negotiation tactics and even less of economics...
Maybe we can explain this to Facebook millennials in mobile phone terms. The monthly contract cost is higher than you would spend on PAYG, and we are tied in to an oppressive T&C with brand exclusivity requirements and a two year notice period - who would ever (continue to) agree to that?
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Old 06-14-2017, 05:50 AM   #7632
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by grizy View Post
Your biggest trade deal will be with the EU.

You're strapped onto EU with or without EU membershi ip.
I know, but ability to set up independent deals is the best we can do to mitigate against bad EU economies/decisions.

We can't compeletely avoid that, but spreading the risk a bit helps some.
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Old 06-14-2017, 06:34 AM   #7633
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Re: Brexit Referendum

UK's status as an English speaking financial center gateway to the EU market was one of the reasons rest of the world bothered working with UK at all.

The talks surrounding tariffs and money saved are red herrings. The real problems are in the non-tariff barriers. Something as simple as requiring customs inspection renders UK, essentially, ineligible for EU's JIT inventories. Since it's easier to move UK factories to Europe than to move European factories to UK, it's a pretty safe bet long term manufacturers, including even UK manufacturers, will just move to Europe and then export to the UK.

This is the path of least resistance that Brexiters have managed to carve out. Congratulations on digging your own graves.
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Old 06-14-2017, 06:40 AM   #7634
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Re: Brexit Referendum

alright mate
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Old 06-14-2017, 08:10 AM   #7635
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
Oh God, if we get nothing else we need the ability to do trade deals independent of EU. If we don't, we are strapped tight to the EU until federalisation or failure.

Some politicians are right *****.
the eu has close to the same trade deals as an independent uk would have, so in reality it probably doesnt change much (other than making trade in europe easier) but it does show how hopeless this all is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb View Post
We used to pay more to the EU than the tariffs we avoided.
the non-tariff barriers are still more important than just the tariffs. i feel like we've been here before.

Last edited by daca; 06-14-2017 at 08:18 AM.
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Old 06-14-2017, 11:37 AM   #7636
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
Oh God, if we get nothing else we need the ability to do trade deals independent of EU. If we don't, we are strapped tight to the EU until federalisation or failure.

Some politicians are right *****.
Why do you want to make independent trade deals? Why is that so important? Where does the value of independent trade deals come from?

It seems that most countries are actually forming blocks to increase their negotiation power when making them or free trade areas (NAFTA, EFTA etc.).

Edit: I think I asked the same question before.
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Old 06-14-2017, 12:19 PM   #7637
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Re: Brexit Referendum

To loosen the ties. Not neceassarily cut them, but not be so utterly beholden to the EU, so that we can escape more easily if it lurches towards failure or federalisation.
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Old 06-14-2017, 02:37 PM   #7638
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
To loosen the ties. Not neceassarily cut them, but not be so utterly beholden to the EU, so that we can escape more easily if it lurches towards failure or federalisation.
We have to deal with Europe anyway. We were in a much stronger position to deal with them when we had a privileged position on the board of directors and could bugger them about at will, per Sir Humphrey.

We are giving up that position.

And that's all escaped your notice, has it?
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Old 06-14-2017, 03:05 PM   #7639
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by 57 On Red View Post
We have to deal with Europe anyway. We were in a much stronger position to deal with them when we had a privileged position on the board of directors and could bugger them about at will, per Sir Humphrey.

We are giving up that position.

And that's all escaped your notice, has it?
eh the constant push to move from veto to majority was eroding that place. Time to change tack and enable us to make deals directly imo.


At this point, I'd rather be part of the EU where we could make deals but not be on the board, such as Norway, than the other way around, tbh. Spend next 5-10 years building up deals and put up with the EU bull****, then leave the EU more fully once we're better placed to not have to put up with them.

I see a seat at the top table as a distraction to global trading alliances that will be more and more important in the future - especially important before the EU collapses or federalises - its clear ultimate fate one way or the other.
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Old 06-14-2017, 05:42 PM   #7640
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend View Post
Where does the value of independent trade deals come from?
For example you can import things at the prices and from the places that suit you, rather than having to go along with protecting/favouring suppliers in another part of the trade block.
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Old 06-15-2017, 05:37 AM   #7641
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by daca View Post
the eu has close to the same trade deals as an independent uk would have, so in reality it probably doesnt change much (other than making trade in europe easier) but it does show how hopeless this all is.



the non-tariff barriers are still more important than just the tariffs. i feel like we've been here before.
The remain campaign didn't seem to be worried about those at the time, I guess they have only become end-of-the-world important as the economic and tariff arguments have started to fall away.

Non tariff barriers don't have to be a problem. We trade OK with the US.

If the EU makes them a problem for outsiders, then they are the insular protectionist clique that we don't want to be in. And we will have ROW opportunities by getting out and dropping those.

So if non-tariff barriers are a problem for international trade then we should leave, if they are not a problem then it is nothing to worry about.

Re. 'being at the table', general consensus is that is is better to be at the table where regulations are made, i.e. WTO etc, rather than not there but be a minority at a sub table that just generates the bureaucracy and protectionism around those regulations.
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:56 AM   #7642
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by Alexdb View Post
The remain campaign didn't seem to be worried about those at the time, I guess they have only become end-of-the-world important as the economic and tariff arguments have started to fall away.

Non tariff barriers don't have to be a problem. We trade OK with the US.

If the EU makes them a problem for outsiders, then they are the insular protectionist clique that we don't want to be in. And we will have ROW opportunities by getting out and dropping those.

So if non-tariff barriers are a problem for international trade then we should leave, if they are not a problem then it is nothing to worry about.

Re. 'being at the table', general consensus is that is is better to be at the table where regulations are made, i.e. WTO etc, rather than not there but be a minority at a sub table that just generates the bureaucracy and protectionism around those regulations.
I highly doubt you understand what the non tariff barriers mean. For all EU member states there are the same regulations. So instead of dealing with the regulations of each member state you have to comply with only one. You probably can imagine that businesses aren't eager to deal with 27 different regulations. So its just ridiculous to say we are dealing with the US just fine. You have to deal with only one set of regulations.
You also seem to dismiss the fact that the EU is closer to the UK than the ROW so everything has lower transportation costs.
Of course you will find goods that are cheaper on the world market. But what are you sacrificing for that. The Chinese would love to make a deal with you but they will also flood your market and probably kill more of your jobs because you cant compete. Please name some goods where you would be better off by dealing with ROW rather than the EU.

Dealing with ROW means also often worse labour conditions in other manufactoring countries, having to transport the whole stuff around the world with impacts on the Environment.

I always said to save this planet it has to be together. We just get a glimpse what it means to only think about yourself when we are watching the US government dismantling regulations and stuff to help businesses(or should I say the rich) and not caring about environment, civil rights and so on. But it seems that most Brexiteers have no problem with all that because some dreams of "Make the UK great again".
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:04 PM   #7643
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Davis saying nothing and taking a long time saying it at the BREXIT press conference. Seems the timetable is exactly the one the EU said it would be.

Citizens Rights and Financial Settlement to be discussed first.

Last edited by epcfast; 06-19-2017 at 01:12 PM.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:44 PM   #7644
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Re: Brexit Referendum

once this was decided the rest is just boring details. only the irish will care (which is why they got to decide the eu position)

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Old 06-19-2017, 01:46 PM   #7645
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Davis is an idiot who likes to portray himself as a man of principle.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:58 PM   #7646
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by epcfast View Post
Davis saying nothing and taking a long time saying it at the BREXIT press conference. Seems the timetable is exactly the one the EU said it would be.

Citizens Rights and Financial Settlement to be discussed first.
The real issue was always about when 'significant progress' was deemed to have been made allowing the rest of the talks to start.

I was half expecting DD to walk out over that issue but it's a lot less likely post the election.
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:40 PM   #7647
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Peston's take

Quote:
What a difference the absence of a clear majority makes.

A few weeks ago, when the Tories believed they would win an election landslide, David Davis told me on Peston on Sunday that the "row of the summer" would be his opposition to the EU's desire to negotiate money we owe, the rights of migrants and Ireland's borders before talking about a trade deal.

Today the Brexit secretary became the pussycat of the summer - in the eyes of Brussels - as he declared his pleasure that Brexit negotiations would indeed be in the sequence desired by the rest of the EU.

He caved without a row, simply because there are only so many fights a weakened minority government can pick.

Similarly, if you are wondering why May's pact with Northern Ireland's DUP hasn't been announced, it's not because the deal to prop up her government has not been agreed. It was done and dusted last week, as I told you then
The delay is partly because of an internal DUP row about how to present the deal, essentially whether their leader Arlene Foster should have a press conference with the PM, and what she would say.

The thing is that DUP MPs and members of Northern Ireland's assembly are split on how conspicuously to be seen as the tail wagging the Tory dog.

And they are also nervous - I am told - about propping up May tomorrow, which is a possible day for the deal to be announced, only to be humiliated if her Queen's Speech is received like a plate of cold sick and she quits the next day.

So 10 DUP MPs have the might of 318 Tories, appaz.

Oh, and then there is the minor matter of the Chancellor trying to remake in public the pillars of her cherished Brexit strategy - with total impunity.

It's almost as if, by claiming to be strong and stable as frequently and repetitively she did, she's cursed herself to be the opposite.

Hubris, thy name could be May?
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Old 06-20-2017, 04:06 AM   #7648
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Re: Brexit Referendum

So the Brexit negotiations seem to started well - caved on everything on day 1.

Any Brexiteers care to give us their valuable opinions? Diebitter?
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Old 06-20-2017, 04:24 AM   #7649
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Dgaf, we're getting rid of the immigrants and bringing our sovereignty back!
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Old 06-20-2017, 04:43 AM   #7650
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Hammond says UK should stick with EU customs union rules for a time after brexit.

None of these ****s know what it is they want from brexit except no more immigrants and sovereignty back.

Also no more austerity. I'll believe it when I see it.
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