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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

05-07-2017 , 03:37 AM
I also would not want Le Pen in (though a 'let the world burn' part of me thinks it would be hilarious in a dark, dark way - and part of me thinks it will have the upside of burning down the EU faster than it will otherwise proceed - but slower is most likely safer, unfortunately), but the issue is the EU will treat it just like Austria, and completely ignore the getting closer and closer to 50% and above percentage of people diametrically opposed to what they are doing, and take it as a sign to keep on EUing up Europe in the same old way.

If they don't change, isn't it blindingly obvious the Le Pens of Europe will start getting elected all over Europe in the next 5 years?

Italy is clearly getting ready to rock the boat - though of course Le Pen getting in is a magnitude or two worse for the ongoing existence of the EU than similar happening in almost any other EU state...
05-07-2017 , 03:44 AM
I do think Macron will just gum up French reform, as he has no party to back him - and France will play along for 5 years, and if EU gonna EU, we may well have Le Pen in in 2022
05-07-2017 , 03:48 AM
Current predictions for Brexit: EU's gonna **** about and not offer any realistic deal, and Juncker will keep pooflinging cos he doesn't want a deal to happen. Eventually Merkel and Tusk will lead the old codger away from the real business, probably after the Brits walk out saying they prefer no deal.

Not sure after that. Probably a long leaving period. Maybe not tho, May really, really hates the European courts overseeing the UK.
05-07-2017 , 03:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV
That's a very unfair description that misses the point.

The larger countries in the Eu agreed to help Greece because it was in their own interest. The Germans benefit enormously from having the euro: if they were an independent country the deutschemark would be extremely strong meaning they couldn't export and that would make their industry less competitive as it is in the UK.

In the EU they get the benefit of a strong economy without the downside of a strong currency.

Greece by contrast would benefit greatly from ditching the euro. Its tourist sector in particular would blossom overnight as it could make a profit on rock-bottom drachma based prices. To keep small nations in subsidy is required and to everyone's mutual benefit.

Note that this happens all the time in the US and it is barely mentioned.
Yeah this is nonsense. It must be pretty hard to do business in Zimbabwe with those US dollar based prices. Firms and governments just pay out less in poorer countries.

Plenty of other countries, much poorer and much less efficient than Germany use the Euro and still live within their means as they know that's the way to a sustainable long term future. For example since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Estonia has had a fixed rate to the DM, then the Euro and now uses the Euro. Public debt is around 10% of GDP. It's offensive that they should pay for the profligacy of richer countries like Greece.
05-07-2017 , 03:51 AM
@ diebitter. It's blindingly obvious there is a risk of the Le Pen types getting in but it's nothing like a certainty.

One of the main focus of politics should be to address the justified underlying causes before it's too late.
05-07-2017 , 04:55 AM
'should be', indeed.

I think addressing underlying causes in a planned, timely and rational way is what the EU is terrible at. The only time they actively galvanise to do things is either when facing imminent catastrophic threat or when they see the chance to centralise/federalise or erode democracy further at national levels.
05-07-2017 , 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Yeah this is nonsense. It must be pretty hard to do business in Zimbabwe with those US dollar based prices. Firms and governments just pay out less in poorer countries.

Plenty of other countries, much poorer and much less efficient than Germany use the Euro and still live within their means as they know that's the way to a sustainable long term future. For example since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Estonia has had a fixed rate to the DM, then the Euro and now uses the Euro. Public debt is around 10% of GDP. It's offensive that they should pay for the profligacy of richer countries like Greece.
Solve by experiment: would you go to Greece on holiday if they had the Drachma or the euro? I personally would prefer to pay 1000% less. End of story.

As for "living within their means" crap, the people did, it was the banks that lost all the money. They can live within their means and pay for their own failure.
05-07-2017 , 05:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
'should be', indeed.

I think addressing underlying causes in a planned, timely and rational way is what the EU is terrible at. The only time they actively galvanise to do things is either when facing imminent catastrophic threat or when they see the chance to centralise/federalise or erode democracy further at national levels.
Yeah it is almost like they have military bases in the country. Oh wait, no they dont, the yanks do. But you aren't worried about that. THAT's different.
05-07-2017 , 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
but the issue is the EU will treat it just like Austria, and completely ignore the getting closer and closer to 50% and above percentage of people diametrically opposed to what they are doing, and take it as a sign to keep on EUing up Europe in the same old way.
fpö doesnt want to leave the eu or the euro. and their eu hostility was probably one of the reasons hofer lost. grillo is a clown, but italy isnt leaving and 5 star is not lega nord either.

the eu is one of the factors holding the far right back around europe.
05-07-2017 , 09:58 AM
EU are feeding the far right imo
05-07-2017 , 10:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
EU are feeding the far right imo
nah the entire raison d'etre for the far right is basically non-european immigration and minorities of with non-european background (except in england). when you see polls on what motivates le pen voters the eu doesnt even make the list, but it does make the list of why people vote macron. it most likely played a part in fpö losing the last one too.
05-07-2017 , 03:47 PM
opposition to the eu might help them go from 10 to 15% but i dont think it helps if you want to be a mainstream party


https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/861302085123538945

the far right appeal isnt about the eu
05-07-2017 , 04:45 PM
Oh really, so the EU had little to no hand in creating and maintaining the circumstances that heralded the growth of the far right then, you think?

What has been a more significant factor in the growth of the far right in Europe then?
05-07-2017 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Oh really, so the EU had little to no hand in creating and maintaining the circumstances that heralded the growth of the far right then, you think?
yeah it's a nonfactor. nobody cares enough to change their normal vote.

Quote:
What has been a more significant factor in the growth of the far right in Europe then?
it's 95% about middle eastern and african immigration.
05-08-2017 , 01:10 AM
Hmm, a lot of what I've read about what feeds Le Pen is anti-EUness. I'm not just talking about the Telegraph etc, but the Guardian etc too.


I do appreciate the comments though and do not dismiss them, and will look into it some.
05-08-2017 , 05:42 AM
Guardian went full ******.

The use of quotes around so many phrases it wants to suggest are shady is amazing.
05-08-2017 , 06:20 AM
Read that article, would like to hope it's pie in the sky but am afraid everything in it is true.

At least we found out where the 750k came from that the DUP spent.

Not surprised the little englander sees no problem with it.
05-08-2017 , 06:49 AM
Is the author paid per quotation mark?
05-08-2017 , 07:30 AM
Yeah right, that's the main concern.
05-08-2017 , 07:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by martymc1
Yeah right, that's the main concern.
Don't waste your time, he's clearly one of the morons easily influenced by the last minute "OMG IMMIGRANTS" propaganda/adverts.
05-08-2017 , 07:47 AM
I read the article yesterday. It's an eye opener in the most disturbing sense.
05-08-2017 , 10:13 AM
I'll order a job lot of tinfoil for new hats for you guys.

Another spurt of angst from the guardianistas in denial that leavers didn't agree with them for legit reasons.
05-08-2017 , 10:44 AM
whoever wrote that fancies themselves as the next john le carre

some firms used social media data to run targeted ads at people they thought would be dumb enough to vote for drumpf/brexit. big deal
05-08-2017 , 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
I'll order a job lot of tinfoil for new hats for you guys.

Another spurt of angst from the guardianistas in denial that leavers didn't agree with them for legit reasons.
It didn't really interest me much either way.

Political campaigners use data and increasingly automate analysis to make sense of it. Any one making too much out of that is out to lunch: any one pretending it isn't happening is in denial about how the modern world operates.

      
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