Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Politics political discourse

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-04-2016, 02:26 AM   #51
Elrazor
losing momentum
 
Elrazor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,824
Re: Brexit Referendum

Cameron defending his immigration record reminds me of Miliband defending labour's spending policy....
Elrazor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 09:08 AM   #52
jalfrezi
Pooh-Bah
 
jalfrezi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: long gone, long long gone
Posts: 4,734
Re: Brexit Referendum

Opposing sides seem to be within a few percentage points of each other, but the market has always had other ideas:





jalfrezi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 11:59 AM   #53
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 19,814
Re: Brexit Referendum

Just cant wait for it to be over.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 12:03 PM   #54
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 19,814
Re: Brexit Referendum

Is there a big silent majority in favour of IN? Because when anyone opens their mouth (unfortunately much to common, which is why this referendum is AIDS) I would never back that they were going to say an IN supporting statement at 1.37.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 12:27 PM   #55
[Phill]
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
[Phill]'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 52,495
Re: Brexit Referendum

Only one reliable poll has shown out to be ahead, ie a ceiling on an average that shows in to be winning.

All the smart money is either long in or hedging out against currency and stock positions.
[Phill] is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 12:58 PM   #56
Doctor Zeus
adept
 
Doctor Zeus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Laaaaandaaaan
Posts: 941
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Is there a big silent majority in favour of IN? Because when anyone opens their mouth (unfortunately much to common, which is why this referendum is AIDS) I would never back that they were going to say an IN supporting statement at 1.37.
In people aren't rabid, outers are, and so when people talk about it its always going to be the outers.

Its also much less exciting to talk about retaining the status quo.
Doctor Zeus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 05:35 PM   #57
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 19,814
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill] View Post
Only one reliable poll has shown out to be ahead, ie a ceiling on an average that shows in to be winning.

All the smart money is either long in or hedging out against currency and stock positions.
Yea, I just really fear der market is wrong on this one, or at least over confident of YES.

Thick people seem to really gravitate strongly to OUT, and there are A LOT of thick people.

Also every newspaper is rabidly OUT apart from the usual lefty suspects and no one reads those.

For all the supposed death of print journalism, newspapers seem to still contain a massive power over the zeitgeist.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2016, 06:47 PM   #58
BAIDS
2013 FA Cup winner
 
BAIDS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 32,645
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Is there a big silent majority in favour of IN? Because when anyone opens their mouth (unfortunately much to common, which is why this referendum is AIDS) I would never back that they were going to say an IN supporting statement at 1.37.
iirc the OUTers during the scottish ref were polling well and making a ton of noise, and everyone was like **** this is really gonna happen isnt it. and then then they won like 3 out of 67 wards

might be similar with this one

tho imo much more chance of casual INners just not bothering to vote on this one since EU politics is so goddamn boring
BAIDS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 02:46 AM   #59
Elrazor
losing momentum
 
Elrazor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,824
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Thick people seem to really gravitate strongly to OUT, and there are A LOT of thick people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
Implying everyone who disagrees with your view is an idiot.


I think Brexit is different to the Independence referendum in that a lot of Scots actually like the UK and feel part of the UK, whereas even the most rampant inners are at least mildly suspicious of Europe. People just don't feel a historical/emotional tie to Europe, although it remains to be seen whether that translates to the ballot box.

It's also highly likely that if Cameron and Corbyn were not the leaders of their respective parties they would be voting out, and more than likely rabidly campaigning out. I think in Corbyn's case especially, he could be doing a lot more than he is - whether that's a lack of conviction, or a tactical decision for the Labour Party to stay peripheral while the Tories are at each other is kind of academic - if he campaigned harder, we would have a lot better chance of remaining in what will be a tight vote.

I'm personally drifting towards remain, although I'm still probably still going to vote out as things stand. I can really see the benefits of both so I'm not so bothered either way, so while I'll definitely vote I'll feel pretty happy with either outcome.
Elrazor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 04:16 AM   #60
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 31,481
Re: Brexit Referendum

I'm still confident it will be IN but the lack of any positive vision about the EU has long been a major problem and is hitting hard now.

Make it just about the economy (and the lol risk of war) and there's precious little reason to stay. Cameron has been hopeless.
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 04:19 AM   #61
jalfrezi
Pooh-Bah
 
jalfrezi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: long gone, long long gone
Posts: 4,734
Re: Brexit Referendum

The only "benefits" I've heard from Outers are to to do with sovereignty ie control over your own laws, though this is something of a red herring anyway as they are happy to cede sovereignty to other organisations eg NATO.

Their other arguments all have a xenophobic element which I find reprehensible.
jalfrezi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 04:29 AM   #62
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 31,481
Re: Brexit Referendum

I agree but fundamentally it's about whether or not the EU is a good idea or not. I think it is but if I didn't then what's the point?

The trouble with the IN side of the debate is no one is arguing it's a good idea. It's just some made up baloney about the disaster if we leave.
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 04:54 AM   #63
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 19,814
Re: Brexit Referendum

Was not implying anything, just a statement of fact, the lower someones IQ and level of education the more likely they are to be OUT.

So yea explicitly stating that a lot of OUT voters are thick.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 04:58 AM   #64
jalfrezi
Pooh-Bah
 
jalfrezi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: long gone, long long gone
Posts: 4,734
Re: Brexit Referendum

@chez I think that's right. The problem with the in campaign is that it's been left to people who aren't naturally pro Europe to argue for it, and being mainly Tories they focus only on tangible benefits ie the economy.

I managed to convert one person from out to in last week by talking mainly about the exchange of culture between the UK and Europe that began in the 90s, when people who previously had holidayed in the UK were coming back from Europe realising that most of the country being basically shut on Sundays and after 11pm every night was highly abnormal, which helped to bring about the opening up of London and other cities that he and people enjoy now. There were other causes too, but it's hard to imagine the same outcome if we hadn't been part of the EU.

The inners should be talking more about the perils of regressing back to the state of an isolated island.
jalfrezi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 05:29 AM   #65
Elrazor
losing momentum
 
Elrazor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,824
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
The trouble with the IN side of the debate is no one is arguing it's a good idea. It's just some made up baloney about the disaster if we leave.
I think the only person I enjoy hearing speak about IN is John Major. He hardly ever reduces it down to economic reasons, and instead focuses on all the other tangible benefits of the EU. I hope he is part of one of the forthcoming TV debates.
Elrazor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 05:58 AM   #66
chytry
veteran
 
chytry's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,871
Re: Brexit Referendum

even most people voting for brexit don't think they are going to win

chytry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 06:51 AM   #67
jalfrezi
Pooh-Bah
 
jalfrezi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: long gone, long long gone
Posts: 4,734
Re: Brexit Referendum

That graphic supports the view that the In campaign's advocates have suffered from complacency.

Really, with most of the economists, large companies and non-emotional arguments firmly on the side of In, they should be romping home in the polls now.
jalfrezi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 11:58 AM   #68
[Phill]
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
[Phill]'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 52,495
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
That graphic supports the view that the In campaign's advocates have suffered from complacency.

Really, with most of the economists, large companies and non-emotional arguments firmly on the side of In, they should be romping home in the polls now.
Facts aren't hidden anywhere.

All the good arguments are still on the side of in. Its the electorate's fault.

I think I took someone off the fence onto the side of in earlier this week and she has a PhD. She started with "both sides have so many arguments" and reposted some in and out stuff to Facebook, then I spelled out what the single market is, why European trade is so important and how the FTZ isn't a substitute, how we ratify EU law, why a housing price crash wasn't good (lol this is seriously an out campaign argument, make houses cheaper to buy what could ever go wrong with wiping out much of the wealth of private individuals) and how we have nothing to fear from an evolving culture.

I didn't want to press it but I am sure she was at least nudged towards voting in. But seriously wtf some of those terrible out arguments are self defeating and yet even smart people buy into the bull****.

I don't know what the in campaign could do to have better substantive arguments. Their problem is we don't teach people critical thinking at all.

Its not even about people not knowing things or even being stupid in the classical sense, the problem runs much deeper.
[Phill] is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 01:11 PM   #69
CityBoy2006
banned
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 84
Re: Brexit Referendum

To a large extent the problem is that we've let a large number of working class people suffer from globalisation without any real focus on how to address it (a problem so profound we're seeing Switzerland have a referendum on a no-strings-attached basic income for Pete's sake).

Working class people have see their wages depressed, their kids' school places and NHS wards under pressure and only a select few at the top of the high salary-earning class really benefit. Voting Brexit, regardless of whether it helps them or not, gives them a great chance to give what they see as the neoliberal establishment a thorough bloody nose.
CityBoy2006 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 01:12 PM   #70
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 14,221
Re: Brexit Referendum

The market Gods have a say:

Investors add Brexit clauses to British property deals before EU vote
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2016, 01:21 PM   #71
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 14,221
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
I'm still confident it will be IN but the lack of any positive vision about the EU has long been a major problem and is hitting hard now. ...........snip................
Where there is no vision, the people perish….Proverbs 29:18 (KJV)


God thinks this also; you are in excellent company.

Nice to see you have been reading your bible.
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2016, 07:06 AM   #72
Hoopie1
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Hoopie1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sniff banging.
Posts: 19,110
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by S.K View Post
Cameron got a bruising last night on sky and Michael Gove for leave just now did very well. If the main debates go similar in the coming weeks this will be closer than I expected
I agree that Gove did well enough but he got a far easier ride than Cameron did.
Hoopie1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2016, 07:15 AM   #73
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 19,814
Re: Brexit Referendum

Pound falls on Brexit favouring poll outcomes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...brexit-favored
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2016, 08:56 AM   #74
Hoopie1
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Hoopie1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sniff banging.
Posts: 19,110
Re: Brexit Referendum

The Leave side are rolling out the big guns now:

#CHEGXIT
Hoopie1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2016, 10:02 AM   #75
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 19,814
Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopie1 View Post
The Leave side are rolling out the big guns now:

#CHEGXIT
That should be enough to cement Elrazor in the OUT camp.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online